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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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45 minutes ago, fubario said:

you know winter is over on this board when ...

- you see the following posts.... earthquakes from 300 yrs ago, dogs playing in snow 4 years ago and Tim posting 90% of the model runs.

I have no idea what you are talking about…

 

My dogs love the snow even more than I do! Though I have had thoughts of rolling in it over and over as well! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Seems a little high, that may be mixing their snowfall with their precip average. I know they are slightly lower elevation than Morton but can probably benefit slightly from being further east and even occasionally seeing outflow down the Cowlitz River over White Pass. Packwood can most definitely see that as well and with a deep enough cold pool can rip off some pretty nice cold numbers in spite of their relatively low elevation west of the crest.

A good study or assignment would be researching what area has the highest annual snowfall at or below about 1200ft west of the cascade crest. I'd bet lake cushman is in the top 5 places.  I know the winter I had a place up there in 2011 2012 I had around 120 inches of snow and my home where I currently live that same winter had 30 inches or so. That place up there is incredible for snow for only around 1000ft elevation. 

Edited by MR.SNOWMIZER
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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Part two of the SSW has begun now.

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Eric went into this in detail in the Ag Weather update that was just released an hour ago.   He said there is no indication that this PV disruption is going to link up with the troposphere which is what it takes to alter the weather pattern and release cold air.   In essence he was saying that it looks like a SSW but its disorganized and probably not meaningful and he thinks the PV might actually end up spinning right over the North Pole again by late February as if nothing happened.    Strange behavior... but I wouldn't count on this helping us at this point.

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm eyeballing IR closely and it looks like that ridge might be building west further than modeled, perhaps not as 'fat' of a block. I am sure it's all wishful thinking super wishcast mode. My wishcast mode tells me the ridge might not be as fat as modeled. My reality self says he's a moron and has no idea what's left or right, up nor down. It's worth watching IR Loop, then real-time observations, Mesoanalysis 850s/925s, YKA-OMK, YLW-OMK, OMK-PDT gradients to gauge the strength of the arctic blast into the Columbia Basin and pressure rises.

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8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

IT’S COMING!!!!!!

Its not coming, Randy. Its the GEFS, which just follows its operational around. Its a long term ensemble, which just shows the typical Nina backround state at that range. And the EPS is not on board. Sorry. I was just posting for the laughs. 

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1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Its not coming, Randy. Its the GEFS, which just follows its operational around. Its a long term ensemble, which just shows the typical Nina backround state at that range. And the EPS is not on board. Sorry. I was just posting for the laughs. 

Thanks Tim. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Another interesting note in the Ag Weather update was the idea that the MJO might crash back through the middle and emerge out in phase 7.    I think Jim mentioned this yesterday.    

MJO phase 7 is close to a good pattern in February.    Although the focus of the cold is in the middle of the country.    The MJO is probably a better hope for cold/snow than the SSW at this point. 

 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

We were stuck in the gunk here too... I think it is cold air damming against Cascades with NW flow aloft.    Really gross set up.   Glad its going away soon.

At this point, I’m just going to enjoy a couple of clear and chilly days Sunday and Monday. Every day this week was gunky here despite a “partly cloudy” forecast.

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11 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

It’s warmer at our place in twisp than at home right now. Weird warm spike over there (at our place at least) after sunset. Says it’s 43 at our spot and 27 in the valley. Crazy! 

Looks like Loup Loup hit 51 today which is crazy warm.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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We have gone from very light mist to very heavy drizzle!!!!!!! Epic late January event that just keeps on giving!!! Up to .06”!!!!!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I can definitely see why some people haven’t really liked this winter so far.  
 Late November-early December was mainly good in the south sound over 200’ of elevation. I think overall it wasn’t as great south of Olympia or north of Everett. Pretty so-so for people near sea level. 
 The late December event was really good north of Everett, decent as far south as Tacoma with not much but ice south of there.
 We did pretty good here but me and a few others in the south sound with a tiny bit of elevation like@SouthHillFrosty and @snow_wizard did better than just about everywhere in the lowlands besides the NW interior and BC. 

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