Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 00z WRF-GFS 10 AM Saturday. This shows a weak low developing just off the Washington Coast and the east winds soon to begin. Hmmm.... 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: 00z WRF-GFS 10 AM Saturday. This shows a weak low developing just off the Washington Coast and the east winds soon to begin. Hmmm.... Hasn’t this been shown all week? 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Hasn’t this been shown all week? Probably. No idea I *gasp* haven't looked at the WRF in days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: 00z WRF-GFS 10 AM Saturday. This shows a weak low developing just off the Washington Coast and the east winds soon to begin. Hmmm.... Very weak 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Day 9'er 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Day 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 00z WRF-GFS 1 AM Sunday. Decent arctic blast 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 GEM still wants to get really cold on this side 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 hours ago, Deweydog said: Sensor problems tending north. Do you think there is a problem with the station at KDLS? Their relatively high readings during the CAA in late December is what kind of clenched it for me. A simple yes or no will suffice. No squirmy lawyery hedging if you can help it 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 hours ago, icyasf said: 2 years ago today. That was a decent event for the central Willamette valley. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, RentonHill said: Its not coming, Randy. Its the GEFS, which just follows its operational around. Its a long term ensemble, which just shows the typical Nina backround state at that range. And the EPS is not on board. Sorry. I was just posting for the laughs. Keep posting maps please. We can’t have this place dominated by just one person doing it all the time and their narrative being the only one while everyone else follows along, even though that would be their dream come true 2 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Keep posting maps please. We can’t have this place dominated by just one person doing it all the time and their narrative being the only one while everyone else follows along, even though that would be their dream come true Same goes for you Rob. Love your frame by frames of the GFS, run to run trends, etc. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, icyasf said: This winter has been a C in my opinion, but only because of the cold air damming inch of snow we pulled off on November 6th making it the earliest snowfall since I’ve been here(not sure if that counts as winter snowfall though because it was still fall, thoughts?) We managed a sub-freezing high too. It's been a fine regular season with plenty of dynamic weather as well as some nice, cold nights. Oregon had its coldest home game in a long time when they played at home vs Utah in mid-November, staying below freezing for the entirety of the ballgame. 5 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said: Sorry all of the enthusiasm put me to sleep. 00z GFS Day 1 TELECONNECTIONS. 1 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 hours ago, snow_wizard said: It's not nearly over IMO. Decent cold snap still going to happen and a strong chance of another round in response to SSW completion and favorable MJO. In fact even the cold snap that is nearly here might be extended a bit now that models have changed to showing the zone 3 MJO being more amplified and more sustained than earlier model runs had indicated. The 18z GEFS already shows signs of this with a bit of a double dip showing up on the 850 graph as compared to earlier runs. Need a full wind reversal for a SSW. Doesn’t look like it will happen this time. But there’s always hope for an early/dynamic final warming in late Feb/Mar. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Looks lovely. https://www.youtube.com/live/k3Lt_Het7uw?feature=share 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Eric went into this in detail in the Ag Weather update that was just released an hour ago. He said there is no indication that this PV disruption is going to link up with the troposphere which is what it takes to alter the weather pattern and release cold air. In essence he was saying that it looks like a SSW but its disorganized and probably not meaningful and he thinks the PV might actually end up spinning right over the North Pole again by late February as if nothing happened. Strange behavior... but I wouldn't count on this helping us at this point. That’s not a SSW. It’s a wave-1/displacement type stratwarm, but the PV stays close enough to the pole that u-wind above 60N remains positive, and the PV retains its structural integrity. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 hours ago, rsktkr said: I live in McMinnville. We have had exactly 0.00" of snow this year. It was a bit cooler than normal for a few days back in December. WTF? I can't think of a single positive thing to say about this absolute dud of a winter. In my book this is the most boring winter of any since I moved here ten years ago. Just let it end. I know some jack@ss is going to either point out the realities of the region we live in, tell me to move, or point out some other winter that was somehow worse. Don't be that jack@a**. I am just venting as I shift my mindset to spring. We’re in the same boat. I’ve had less than 0.1” despite some legitimate cold at times. 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, MossMan said: Looks lovely. https://www.youtube.com/live/k3Lt_Het7uw?feature=share Yeah it does! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: Cold onshore flow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Cold onshore flow It's really not much yet. Could trend good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Eric went into this in detail in the Ag Weather update that was just released an hour ago. He said there is no indication that this PV disruption is going to link up with the troposphere which is what it takes to alter the weather pattern and release cold air. In essence he was saying that it looks like a SSW but its disorganized and probably not meaningful and he thinks the PV might actually end up spinning right over the North Pole again by late February as if nothing happened. Strange behavior... but I wouldn't count on this helping us at this point. We'll see. I think there is a lot of guessing going on right now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: It's really not much yet. Could trend good. Pretty decent signal there for the GOA and Eastern US ridges. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 53 minutes ago, Phil said: Need a full wind reversal for a SSW. Doesn’t look like it will happen this time. But there’s always hope for an early/dynamic final warming in late Feb/Mar. The thing is the SWW has / is happening. Must be some detail I'm not familiar with. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 hours ago, TacomaWx said: I can definitely see why some people haven’t really liked this winter so far. Late November-early December was mainly good in the south sound over 200’ of elevation. I think overall it wasn’t as great south of Olympia or north of Everett. Pretty so-so for people near sea level. The late December event was really good north of Everett, decent as far south as Tacoma with not much but ice south of there. We did pretty good here but me and a few others in the south sound with a tiny bit of elevation like@SouthHillFrosty and @snow_wizard did better than just about everywhere in the lowlands besides the NW interior and BC. Indeed. It snowed a number of times and got quite cold. Whatcom County did really well too. A lot of people do have reason to feel cheated though. Little doubt Feb will end up below normal, but who knows what the details will be. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 And speaking of strange. There are people just taking it for granted the Nina is done and will transition into a Nino. Absolutely no clear sign of that happening as of now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Dumpage. Up to .26” on the day. 39 degrees. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Indeed. It snowed a number of times and got quite cold. Whatcom County did really well too. A lot of people do have reason to feel cheated though. Little doubt Feb will end up below normal, but who knows what the details will be. Absolutely 0 doubt 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, TacomaWx said: Absolutely 0 doubt I think there is little doubt. It might be almost all cold onshore flow, but chances are it will be chilly. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: I think there is little doubt. It might be almost all cold onshore flow, but chances are it will be chilly. With cold onshore flow I can get snow if a strong PSCZ develops over me. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 ECMWF is still a lot colder than the GFS for the coming cold snap. I think the mins the GFS is showing for the event are absurdly high. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I think there is little doubt. It might be almost all cold onshore flow, but chances are it will be chilly. We’ve still got about a 6 week window for something decent to happen…but once we get into the 2nd week of March it gets pretty tough. Hopefully something materializes but I’m content with what we’ve got so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 FWIW this ECMWF runs is quite a bit colder for Tuesday night than the 12z. Maybe a bit of an extension will be tacked onto this. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: We’ve still got about a 6 week window for something decent to happen…but once we get into the 2nd week of March it gets pretty tough. Hopefully something materializes but I’m content with what we’ve got so far. I guess I can live with it if we don't get anything more. What choice do I have anyway. It would be pretty odd to not score in the second half of a winter in this context. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Today I guess I learned an SSW isn't necessarily an SSW. Who would have thunk it? 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Today I guess I learned an SSW isn't necessarily an SSW. Who would have thunk it? Hung up much? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 About the same as GEFS. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 since winter is having a bipolar moment, who's ready for record breaking summer heat? 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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