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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Sensor problems tending north.😢

Do you think there is a problem with the station at KDLS? Their relatively high readings during the CAA in late December is what kind of clenched it for me. A simple yes or no will suffice. No squirmy lawyery hedging if you can help it 🪱 ;) 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 hour ago, RentonHill said:

Its not coming, Randy. Its the GEFS, which just follows its operational around. Its a long term ensemble, which just shows the typical Nina backround state at that range. And the EPS is not on board. Sorry. I was just posting for the laughs. 

Keep posting maps please. We can’t have this place dominated by just one person doing it all the time and their narrative being the only one while everyone else follows along, even though that would be their dream come true 😂

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Keep posting maps please. We can’t have this place dominated by just one person doing it all the time and their narrative being the only one while everyone else follows along, even though that would be their dream come true 😂

Same goes for you Rob. Love your frame by frames of the GFS, run to run trends, etc. 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, icyasf said:

This winter has been a C in my opinion, but only because of the cold air damming inch of snow we pulled off on November 6th making it the earliest snowfall since I’ve been here(not sure if that counts as winter snowfall though because it was still fall, thoughts?)

AF2C8A06-3CF7-42A1-867E-A22F68E89B63.jpeg

We managed a sub-freezing high too. It's been a fine regular season with plenty of dynamic weather as well as some nice, cold nights. Oregon had its coldest home game in a long time when they played at home vs Utah in mid-November, staying below freezing for the entirety of the ballgame.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

It's not nearly over IMO.

Decent cold snap still going to happen and a strong chance of another round in response to SSW completion and favorable MJO.  In fact even the cold snap that is nearly here might be extended a bit now that models have changed to showing the zone 3 MJO being more amplified and more sustained than earlier model runs had indicated.  The 18z GEFS already shows signs of this with a bit of a double dip showing up on the 850 graph as compared to earlier runs.

Need a full wind reversal for a SSW. Doesn’t look like it will happen this time. But there’s always hope for an early/dynamic final warming in late Feb/Mar. 🤞 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Eric went into this in detail in the Ag Weather update that was just released an hour ago.   He said there is no indication that this PV disruption is going to link up with the troposphere which is what it takes to alter the weather pattern and release cold air.   In essence he was saying that it looks like a SSW but its disorganized and probably not meaningful and he thinks the PV might actually end up spinning right over the North Pole again by late February as if nothing happened.    Strange behavior... but I wouldn't count on this helping us at this point.

 

ag 13.jpg

That’s not a SSW. It’s a wave-1/displacement type stratwarm, but the PV stays close enough to the pole that u-wind above 60N remains positive, and the PV retains its structural integrity.

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4 hours ago, rsktkr said:

I live in McMinnville. We have had exactly 0.00" of snow this year. It was a bit cooler than normal for a few days back in December. WTF?

I can't think of a single positive thing to say about this absolute dud of a winter. 

In my book this is the most boring winter of any since I moved here ten years ago.

Just let it end.

I know some jack@ss is going to either point out the realities of the region we live in, tell me to move, or point out some other winter that was somehow worse.

Don't be that jack@a**.

I am just venting as I shift my mindset to spring. 

We’re in the same boat. I’ve had less than 0.1” despite some legitimate cold at times.

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Eric went into this in detail in the Ag Weather update that was just released an hour ago.   He said there is no indication that this PV disruption is going to link up with the troposphere which is what it takes to alter the weather pattern and release cold air.   In essence he was saying that it looks like a SSW but its disorganized and probably not meaningful and he thinks the PV might actually end up spinning right over the North Pole again by late February as if nothing happened.    Strange behavior... but I wouldn't count on this helping us at this point.

 

ag 13.jpg

We'll see.  I think there is a lot of guessing going on right now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

It's really not much yet. Could trend good.1675857600-zZFdUTGlZd0.png

Pretty decent signal there for the GOA and Eastern US ridges.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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53 minutes ago, Phil said:

Need a full wind reversal for a SSW. Doesn’t look like it will happen this time. But there’s always hope for an early/dynamic final warming in late Feb/Mar. 🤞 

The thing is the SWW has / is happening.  Must be some detail I'm not familiar with.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

I can definitely see why some people haven’t really liked this winter so far.  
 Late November-early December was mainly good in the south sound over 200’ of elevation. I think overall it wasn’t as great south of Olympia or north of Everett. Pretty so-so for people near sea level. 
 The late December event was really good north of Everett, decent as far south as Tacoma with not much but ice south of there.
 We did pretty good here but me and a few others in the south sound with a tiny bit of elevation like@SouthHillFrosty and @snow_wizard did better than just about everywhere in the lowlands besides the NW interior and BC. 

Indeed.  It snowed a number of times and got quite cold.  Whatcom County did really well too.  A lot of people do have reason to feel cheated though.  

Little doubt Feb will end up below normal, but who knows what the details will be.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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And speaking of strange.  There are people just taking it for granted the Nina is done and will transition into a Nino.  Absolutely no clear sign of that happening as of now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

Absolutely 0 doubt 😊

I think there is little doubt.  It might be almost all cold onshore flow, but chances are it will be chilly.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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ECMWF is still a lot colder than the GFS for the coming cold snap.  I think the mins the GFS is showing for the event are absurdly high.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think there is little doubt.  It might be almost all cold onshore flow, but chances are it will be chilly.

We’ve still got about a 6 week window for something decent to happen…but once we get into the 2nd week of March it gets pretty tough. Hopefully something materializes but I’m content with what we’ve got so far. 

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FWIW this ECMWF runs is quite a bit colder for Tuesday night than the 12z.  Maybe a bit of an extension will be tacked onto this.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We’ve still got about a 6 week window for something decent to happen…but once we get into the 2nd week of March it gets pretty tough. Hopefully something materializes but I’m content with what we’ve got so far. 

I guess I can live with it if we don't get anything more.  What choice do I have anyway.  It would be pretty odd to not score in the second half of a winter in this context.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Today I guess I learned an SSW isn't necessarily an SSW.  Who would have thunk it?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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