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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

It's really not much yet. Could trend good.1675857600-zZFdUTGlZd0.png

That pattern is much too +NAO dominant. SW Canada is left with table scraps at best.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

And speaking of strange.  There are people just taking it for granted the Nina is done and will transition into a Nino.  Absolutely no clear sign of that happening as of now.

Who is doing that? The tropical circulation is as La Niña heavy as it’s been since last spring (and +QBO will try to keep it this way).

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49 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Today I guess I learned an SSW isn't necessarily an SSW.  Who would have thunk it?

A wave-1 type stratospheric warming is happening. That doesn’t make it a SSW. The PV is (as of now) modeled to remain somewhat close to the pole and retain its structural integrity.

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That’s a big league GOA block. You’d think it would do the trick, but unfortunately there is zero help downstream in NE-Canada.

Without downstream blocking to prevent the airmass from sliding east, it just congeals with the TPV near Baffin Island, and (as usual) gets stuck up there.

Then the stratospheric PV (which is displaced towards Greenland thanks to the ongoing wave-1 response) links up/vertically stacks with the Baffin TPV, triggering a full blown +NAO event that dominates the pattern.

A80BAC5D-867D-4687-AB01-60EE78BD5FFF.gif

 

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This is how patterns with arctic potential for the PNW get ruined at least 70% of the time in the post-1998 climate regime.

Seen it happen numerous times each winter since 2013. Always the same problem.

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22 minutes ago, Phil said:

Who is doing that? The tropical circulation is as La Niña heavy as it’s been since last spring (and +QBO will try to keep it this way).

Larry Cosgrove is doing that still going with El nino in the summer.He was ending La nina this winter those like Larry but he clearly been off this winter after he had one of the best forecasting calls in the summer and hurricane season. 

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s a big league GOA block. You’d think it would do the trick, but unfortunately there is zero help downstream in NE-Canada.

Without downstream blocking to prevent the airmass from sliding east, it just congeals with the TPV near Baffin Island, and (as usual) gets stuck up there.

Then the stratospheric PV (which is displaced towards Greenland thanks to the ongoing wave-1 response) links up/vertically stacks with the Baffin TPV, triggering a full blown +NAO event that dominates the pattern.

A80BAC5D-867D-4687-AB01-60EE78BD5FFF.gif

 

AKA… the pattern goes to sh*t fast.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, weatherfan2012 said:

Larry Cosgrove is doing that still going with El nino in the summer.He was ending La nina this winter those like Larry but he clearly been off this winter after he had one of the best forecasting calls in the summer and hurricane season. 

We all make mistakes. At least a couple of my screwups are famous on here and will never leave me. 😂

But alas, I think he is jumping the gun. There’s currently nothing to indicate an El Niño will develop in 2023.

Now, the WPAC is certainly locked and loaded. Thermocline is very suppressed out there. If a strong MJO wave were to cross the dateline sometime in F/M/A, then suddenly an El Niño becomes more likely, if not probable.

But present boundary conditions are working against that. The tropical circulation is thoroughly coupled to the La Niña event, and the +QBO/stable tropics are keeping a lid on the MJO.

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23 minutes ago, Phil said:

We all make mistakes. At least a couple of my screwups are famous on here and will never leave me. 😂

But alas, I think he is jumping the gun. There’s currently nothing to indicate an El Niño will develop in 2023.

Now, the WPAC is certainly locked and loaded. Thermocline is very suppressed out there. If a strong MJO wave were to cross the dateline sometime in F/M/A, then suddenly an El Niño becomes more likely, if not probable.

But present boundary conditions are working against that. The tropical circulation is thoroughly coupled to the La Niña event, and the +QBO/stable tropics are keeping a lid on the MJO.

Agreed I think the truth is no matter how many ids one has mother nature will still kick you in the but at times and this winter has kicked many.Also it human nature to not like to be wrong and alot of times  we can be stubborn in admitting that we were wrong lol.I also think there is still many things in the climate system that we don't really know and it those unknowns alot of times that screws up forecasted ideas.which will then leave us saying yep back to the drawing board again ☺.I think with LC he been going by models which has clearly been rushing things with the enso and he adminted the delays of the models has frustrated him.I think your idea Phil is what makes the most sense a slower trainstion.

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So as I see it, either we:

1) pull off an early/dynamic final warming in March/early April, igniting the MJO which triggers a WWB and DOKW as it crosses the IPWP, bringing about a rapid transition into El Niño.

2) We get the vanilla outcome..static final warming, PV slowly rots away. No substantial MJO response, and ENSO gradually goes dormant (neutral) in 2023. With easterly shear descending (transition to -QBO) later in 2023, the move to El Niño occurs in 2024, beginning the next intradecadal extension of the IPWP, which will produce more El Niño and ENSO neutral events through the mid/late 2020s. Similar to the 1991/92-1997/98, 2001/02-2006/07, and 2012/13 -2019/20 regimes.

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6 hours ago, Phil said:

That’s a big league GOA block. You’d think it would do the trick, but unfortunately there is zero help downstream in NE-Canada.

Without downstream blocking to prevent the airmass from sliding east, it just congeals with the TPV near Baffin Island, and (as usual) gets stuck up there.

Then the stratospheric PV (which is displaced towards Greenland thanks to the ongoing wave-1 response) links up/vertically stacks with the Baffin TPV, triggering a full blown +NAO event that dominates the pattern.

A80BAC5D-867D-4687-AB01-60EE78BD5FFF.gif

 

It's still going to deliver some very cold air to the lower 48, just not sustained. 

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A forum for the end of the world.

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56 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It's still going to deliver some very cold air to the lower 48, just not sustained. 

Yeah -30F here is still a very cold airmass. Definitely nothing to sneeze at.
 

I’ll have to go back and look but two -30 or greater air masses in one season is quite rare for even here.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

And speaking of strange.  There are people just taking it for granted the Nina is done and will transition into a Nino.  Absolutely no clear sign of that happening as of now.

I mean there are signs.. CPC probabilistic guidance at over 50% odds of El Nino by October, much higher odds than those for a neutral year. And following three Ninas, a Nino soon should be pretty much guaranteed within the next two winters.

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11 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

I mean there are signs.. CPC probabilistic guidance at over 50% odds of El Nino by October, much higher odds than those for a neutral year. And following three Ninas, a Nino soon should be pretty much guaranteed within the next two winters.

I could care less about enso. In the end 2019 was a Nino and great. 20-21 sucked and this one might if it doesn’t get its act together. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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16 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

I mean there are signs.. CPC probabilistic guidance at over 50% odds of El Nino by October, much higher odds than those for a neutral year. And following three Ninas, a Nino soon should be pretty much guaranteed within the next two winters.

Jim uses his own forecasting models…it’s predicting a 5 dip nina it looks like. 

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Always a fun time with the GFS... it barely shows it going below freezing at all with the main cold air event but then assumes it will still be cold enough for lowland snow up north when the next system arrives.  

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-5252800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I could care less about enso. In the end 2019 was a Nino and great. 20-21 sucked and this one might if it doesn’t get its act together. 

06/07 was a weak Nino if I remember correctly? Also 2018/19 as well? I don’t follow that enough to remember but if so…I am good with taking my chances with a weak Nino. Let’s go neutral or weak Nino! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I would take this view over snow views any day…It’s amazing!! 
 

Seriously though…This screams January. Even when I was a kid (80’s) I remember so many dull January’s like this and it was so depressing. The only things that got me through was February was usually better in the snow department and I would start getting my fishing gear ready (very early) for opening day in the spring. I would also watch Hank Parker and Bill Dance every Sunday morning…I was such a fishing nut. Need to get back into that as I think the kids would have a blast as well. 
 

 

9CD6275A-51C5-441E-8C70-6BBA9E4B1295.jpeg

2370D42C-7A67-408E-9CD1-A91CBBE974C1.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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12Z GEM also shows snow with that next system on Tuesday.   With two models showing it now... this seems like the next period to watch.   Particularly for areas to the north and east of Seattle.  

gem-all-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-5188000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

The period @Deweydog originally highlighted for overperformance?

I don't think so... he said was actually referring to his "acceptance Wednesday" over-performing which means the models were going to take a big dump that day.   And that is what happened.    I originally thought he was talking about the middle of next week as well.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't think so... he said was actually referring to his "acceptance Wednesday" over-performing which means the models were going to take a big dump that day.   And that is what happened.    I originally thought he was talking about the middle of next week as well.  

we are all just pawns in his little game

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38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Always a fun time with the GFS... it barely shows it going below freezing at all with the main cold air event but then assumes it will still be cold enough for lowland snow up north when the next system arrives.  

gfs-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-5252800.png

Dewpoints. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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lol 1-3" was forecast.  ended up with 1/4" of slush and 34 degrees.  headed to 40.

 

suppose to get the blast over night into tomorrow.  down to 1 on Sunday night.  doubt it.

 

Company all hands call in 5 min.  our '22 numbers are probably as bad as the weather.

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15 minutes ago, Chris said:

I believe you're mistaking a displaced polar vortex with a full wind reversal in the polar jet.  The latter is the SSW.  This chart kind of explains it

image.png

Here is the current GFS forecast:

image.png

And the Euro

image.png

That EPS spaghetti. 🤮 Just awful.

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