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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m pretty sure the temperature in Bozeman is greater than -30°F right now.

It's likely to reach -30F or greater on Sunday night/Monday morning.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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42 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Now I’m understand why these weren’t posted like usual today. Thank you!

 

12 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Decent end to the EPS... pretty strong signal for 15 days out.    

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-6073600.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-6073600.png

I did post it last night.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Nope, already there:

406701864_Screenshotfrom2023-01-2711-53-38.png.7b37fbfc7ee61745de1838cbe39194f0.png

34 > -30.

Do I need to call in for a welfare check??

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think we are all devastated by how disappointing this winter turned out. The worm could still turn, but it now seems unlikely. The pattern is just a meandering mess. It’s been our biggest issue the whole season sadly.

That’s been my perception as well. Rudderless, as some say.

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If only we could score one legit WWB/dateline MJO passage. Would trigger a downwelling OKW and maybe start the march into El Niño.

But the La Niña circulation is as strong/stable as it’s been in almost a year. Need to give things a jolt somehow. But right now I’m just not seeing it. :( 

BE29D1A5-60EA-4F70-8517-5F7D738858D8.gif

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Just now, Phil said:

If only we could score one legit WWB/dateline MJO passage. Would trigger a downwelling OKW and maybe start the march into El Niño.

But the La Niña circulation is as strong/stable as it’s been in almost a year. Need to give things a jolt somehow. But right now I’m just not seeing it. :( 

Pray for La Niña to end and save global cooling 🙏 

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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15 hours ago, Phil said:

Need a full wind reversal for a SSW. Doesn’t look like it will happen this time. But there’s always hope for an early/dynamic final warming in late Feb/Mar. 🤞 

This is really confusing and perhaps we need to find a new term or manner by which to address the matter. I say this because it makes no sense to suggest a sudden warming in the stratosphere is not a sudden stratospheric warming event. While I'm not disagreeing with the experts or the science, I am questioning how a sudden warming in the stratosphere could not be regarded as a sudden stratospheric warming.

Another question would be what exactly causes the full wind reversal? Is it the result of the sudden stratospheric warming or is it something separate that finalizes the event? Now I admit that I don't know much at all about this subject so I can see how people who aren't experts like myself would assume that if the stratosphere warms suddenly, that it's a sudden stratospheric warming. That would be my assumption as well.

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45F and cloudy got down to 38F last night.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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7 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

This is really confusing and perhaps we need to find a new term or manner by which to address the matter. I say this because it makes no sense to suggest a sudden warming in the stratosphere is not a sudden stratospheric warming event. While I'm not disagreeing with the science that would require a full wind reversal, I am saying that there is no doubt in my mind that when the stratosphere warms suddenly, it's a sudden warming in the stratosphere.

One of my questions would be how is it that there can be a sudden warming in the stratosphere and yet there not be a full wind reversal, if that is the ultimate result of a sudden warming event? Did it just not warm enough? I admit, I don't know much at all about this subject so I can see how people who aren't experts would assume that if the stratosphere warms suddenly, that its a sudden stratospheric warming. That would be my assumption as well.

It probably is technically a SSW event... but from what I have learned on the Ag Weather updates it has to completely disrupt the flow and link up with the troposphere to have meaningful impacts at the surface.   And not all SSW events are created equal.   This one might not destroy the polar vortex and then it will just organize again and its as if nothing happened.    In other words... not the knock out punch that is needed.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

D72F706D-3D2E-4132-8466-45E3ECEC5AA7.png
 

Could be a whole lot worse. Generally below average in the upper levels. Andrew.

Agreed. It’s not awful and trending nicely in the longer range. Perhaps all is not lost?!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It probably is technically a SSW event... but from what I have learned on the Ag Weather updates it has to completely disrupt the flow and link up with the troposphere to have meaningful impacts at the surface.   And not all SSW events are created equal.   This is one might not destroy the polar vortex and then it will just organize again and its as if nothing happened.    In other words... not the knock out punch that is needed.

Right and that makes sense. But Phil was saying it's not a SSW unless there is a full wind reversal and if I understand correctly, other experts have said the same thing. But it makes no sense to me to suggest a sudden warming in the stratosphere is not a sudden stratospheric warming. Just because no two SSW have equal impacts, doesn't mean it's not a SSW. No two La Nina's have the same impacts but they are still La Nina's. I don't want to sound like I know more than the experts because I don't, but this one makes no sense to me.

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1 minute ago, AbbyJr said:

Right and that makes sense. But Phil was saying it's not a SSW unless there is a full wind reversal and if I understand correctly, other experts have said the same thing. But it makes no sense to me to suggest a sudden warming in the stratosphere is not a sudden stratospheric warming.

In meteorological circles... they probably just generally use "SSW" to mean an event that will impact the weather patterns and deliver cold air even though that is not the full story.  

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5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Wednesday morning might be white for some.

ecmwf-deterministic-or_wa-total_snow_kuchera-5263600.thumb.png.b2b65c406489ce4f277faf2475726000.pnggfs-deterministic-or_wa-total_snow_kuchera-5263600.thumb.png.7921711b2536c93f29a1487424297af3.png

This theme really gained traction in the model runs today... the big 3 all show something.    Maybe the start of a trend?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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22 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Let’s enjoy this three hour winter uncancel.

CFS kinda sucks tho

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SSW will come in late Feb with effects not felt at the surface until late March when its really doesn't matter.  we'll string along a cool damp spring with some chilly nights into June with temps roaring to triple digits in early july followed by smoke season in early August that will wane in early october with an early season AR

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