Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Kayla said: To follow-up on this. The last time BZN saw -30F temps or greater in December and January was back in 1978-79. I’m pretty sure the temperature in Bozeman is greater than -30°F right now. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: I’m pretty sure the temperature in Bozeman is greater than -30°F right now. It's likely to reach -30F or greater on Sunday night/Monday morning. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Kayla said: It's likely to reach -30F or greater on Sunday night/Monday morning. Nope, already there: 34 > -30. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 42 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Now I’m understand why these weren’t posted like usual today. Thank you! 12 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Decent end to the EPS... pretty strong signal for 15 days out. I did post it last night. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Nope, already there: 34 > -30. Do I need to call in for a welfare check?? 3 1 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Pattern GEFS extended has after EPS ends. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I think we are all devastated by how disappointing this winter turned out. The worm could still turn, but it now seems unlikely. The pattern is just a meandering mess. It’s been our biggest issue the whole season sadly. That’s been my perception as well. Rudderless, as some say. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Cascadia_Wx Posted January 27, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Caught a neat cloud cap over Mount Hood from Lolo Pass road earlier this week. 14 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 56 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Now I’m understand why these weren’t posted like usual today. Thank you! 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 If only we could score one legit WWB/dateline MJO passage. Would trigger a downwelling OKW and maybe start the march into El Niño. But the La Niña circulation is as strong/stable as it’s been in almost a year. Need to give things a jolt somehow. But right now I’m just not seeing it. 1 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, Phil said: If only we could score one legit WWB/dateline MJO passage. Would trigger a downwelling OKW and maybe start the march into El Niño. But the La Niña circulation is as strong/stable as it’s been in almost a year. Need to give things a jolt somehow. But right now I’m just not seeing it. Pray for La Niña to end and save global cooling 1 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 21 minutes ago, Phil said: That’s been my perception as well. Rudderless, as some say. Matt does! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 12Z ECMWF and EPS... distinct downward trend on EPS in the long range. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 I actually may see flakes! Lot of members with a dusting. Temps marginal though. Maybe a slushy inch. 6 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Is everyone tracking the arctic front? Prince George BC is down to 37F. 4 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Weenie of the year 4 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Sun’s out now. Another perfectly timed overnight cloud/rain, daytime clearing pattern to maximize warm anomalies! 1 1 6 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 15 hours ago, Phil said: Need a full wind reversal for a SSW. Doesn’t look like it will happen this time. But there’s always hope for an early/dynamic final warming in late Feb/Mar. This is really confusing and perhaps we need to find a new term or manner by which to address the matter. I say this because it makes no sense to suggest a sudden warming in the stratosphere is not a sudden stratospheric warming event. While I'm not disagreeing with the experts or the science, I am questioning how a sudden warming in the stratosphere could not be regarded as a sudden stratospheric warming. Another question would be what exactly causes the full wind reversal? Is it the result of the sudden stratospheric warming or is it something separate that finalizes the event? Now I admit that I don't know much at all about this subject so I can see how people who aren't experts like myself would assume that if the stratosphere warms suddenly, that it's a sudden stratospheric warming. That would be my assumption as well. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 45F and cloudy got down to 38F last night. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Could be a whole lot worse. Generally below average in the upper levels. Andrew. 2 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said: 45F and cloudy got down to 38F last night. Wow. You guys have been kicking our azzes for cold anomalies the last week or so. 1 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: This is really confusing and perhaps we need to find a new term or manner by which to address the matter. I say this because it makes no sense to suggest a sudden warming in the stratosphere is not a sudden stratospheric warming event. While I'm not disagreeing with the science that would require a full wind reversal, I am saying that there is no doubt in my mind that when the stratosphere warms suddenly, it's a sudden warming in the stratosphere. One of my questions would be how is it that there can be a sudden warming in the stratosphere and yet there not be a full wind reversal, if that is the ultimate result of a sudden warming event? Did it just not warm enough? I admit, I don't know much at all about this subject so I can see how people who aren't experts would assume that if the stratosphere warms suddenly, that its a sudden stratospheric warming. That would be my assumption as well. It probably is technically a SSW event... but from what I have learned on the Ag Weather updates it has to completely disrupt the flow and link up with the troposphere to have meaningful impacts at the surface. And not all SSW events are created equal. This one might not destroy the polar vortex and then it will just organize again and its as if nothing happened. In other words... not the knock out punch that is needed. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Could be a whole lot worse. Generally below average in the upper levels. Andrew. Agreed. It’s not awful and trending nicely in the longer range. Perhaps all is not lost?! 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Agreed. It’s not awful and trending nicely in the longer range. Perhaps all is not lost?! Let’s enjoy this three hour winter uncancel. 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: It probably is technically a SSW event... but from what I have learned on the Ag Weather updates it has to completely disrupt the flow and link up with the troposphere to have meaningful impacts at the surface. And not all SSW events are created equal. This is one might not destroy the polar vortex and then it will just organize again and its as if nothing happened. In other words... not the knock out punch that is needed. Right and that makes sense. But Phil was saying it's not a SSW unless there is a full wind reversal and if I understand correctly, other experts have said the same thing. But it makes no sense to me to suggest a sudden warming in the stratosphere is not a sudden stratospheric warming. Just because no two SSW have equal impacts, doesn't mean it's not a SSW. No two La Nina's have the same impacts but they are still La Nina's. I don't want to sound like I know more than the experts because I don't, but this one makes no sense to me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, AbbyJr said: Right and that makes sense. But Phil was saying it's not a SSW unless there is a full wind reversal and if I understand correctly, other experts have said the same thing. But it makes no sense to me to suggest a sudden warming in the stratosphere is not a sudden stratospheric warming. In meteorological circles... they probably just generally use "SSW" to mean an event that will impact the weather patterns and deliver cold air even though that is not the full story. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 I think it's a bit of a new and unproven idea that dynamics in the polar stratosphere are an important driver of weather patterns? Quote Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Wednesday morning might be white for some. 4 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Not a snowstorm by any measure, but would beat getting zilch. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Wednesday morning might be white for some. This theme really gained traction in the model runs today... the big 3 all show something. Maybe the start of a trend? 7 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 22 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Let’s enjoy this three hour winter uncancel. CFS kinda sucks tho 1 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 realistically what's gonna happen in february bois can we pull off a miracle or nah 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: CFS kinda sucks tho You talking this run or as a model? BC I always thought the CFS was 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Caught a neat cloud cap over Mount Hood from Lolo Pass road earlier this week. I used to go ride snowmobiles at lolo hot springs. Nice area. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I used to go ride snowmobiles at lolo hot springs. Nice area. I think you might be thinking of the Lolo Pass in the Bitterroots on the Idaho/Montana border. That’s a cool area too! 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: This theme really gained traction in the model runs today... the big 3 all show something. Maybe the start of a trend? Icon showing at least a couple inches here now as well. This could be the real deal! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Stunner of a day in the methow. 45 degrees over there. Good day for melting 6 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Weenie of the year he's not wrong 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: he's not wrong He also said that Spokane is easily one of the worst climates for snow and cold in the PNW. 2 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 SSW will come in late Feb with effects not felt at the surface until late March when its really doesn't matter. we'll string along a cool damp spring with some chilly nights into June with temps roaring to triple digits in early july followed by smoke season in early August that will wane in early october with an early season AR 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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