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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

SSW will come in late Feb with effects not felt at the surface until late March when its really doesn't matter.  we'll string along a cool damp spring with some chilly nights into June with temps roaring to triple digits in early july followed by smoke season in early August that will wane in early october with an early season AR

wow. bold call. 

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5 hours ago, MossMan said:

I would take this view over snow views any day…It’s amazing!! 
 

Seriously though…This screams January. Even when I was a kid (80’s) I remember so many dull January’s like this and it was so depressing. The only things that got me through was February was usually better in the snow department and I would start getting my fishing gear ready (very early) for opening day in the spring. I would also watch Hank Parker and Bill Dance every Sunday morning…I was such a fishing nut. Need to get back into that as I think the kids would have a blast as well. 
 

 

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2370D42C-7A67-408E-9CD1-A91CBBE974C1.jpeg

Where is the foggy react?

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2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

dont be sad @Cascadia_Wx we need the melt up there. The snow was so high the deer were literally walking over the tops of the orchard fences and just feasting on the trees. 

Probably more like swimming over the tops of the fences if it was that deep.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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As of yesterday BLI is at 1.33" for the month. Unless something crazy happens this will be their 4th driest January on record behind 1949, 1985, and 1963. However, all of those months will also end up almost 10 degrees colder (or more) for the average temperature than this month. So probably safe to say this will end being one of the most boring (warmest and driest) Januaries in the last century for the North Sound.

I tried to quickly come up with a somewhat interesting way to represent this. Of course it's hard to compare precipitation and temperature so I ranked all of the last 75 years of Januaries at BLI. In terms of temperatures the warmest January received #1 (coldest was #75) and in terms of precipitation the driest January received #1 (wettest was #75). Then I summed the rankings together. So the highest possible rating was 150 (an epically cold and wet January) and the lowest possible rating was 2 (a boringly warm and dry January). Then I graphed the years here (removing 1997, 1998, and 2013 which all have bad data at BLI). Additionally the color of the dots corresponds to the average temperature for the month (colder than the 30 year average are blue, warmer are red) and the size of the dots corresponds to the total precipitation that month.

It's pretty clear that 2023, 1994, and 1981 are the worst (most boring) years. It's a little hard to decipher the "best" years because Januaries that are quite cold also tend to be dry (and thus don't get much of a bump from their precipitation rankings). Using this metric you might think 1982 was the most interesting January. BLI had 16.4" of snow and 9.3" of rain and an average temperature of 35.1F (5F below today's 30 year average), but I think many would agree the shockingly blue January 1950 lurking off to the left was more "interesting."

BLI_jan_interest_graph_cbar.png.5218af6f41f8795356d1b1194b9be8d2.png

Edit: added an average temperature key to clarify

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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8 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

The few days of rain/freezing rain after all the snow made a really nice 8-10 inch ice layer on top....they were literally walking with almost no compaction. it was crazy. 

Ah, yes, the Pacific Northwest and rain-on-snow events even on the east slopes.

I once went cross-country skiing in 6 feet of powder in the Rockies. Whenever I fell (and I fell a lot because it was my first time on X-C skis) I definitely went swimming.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

SSW will come in late Feb with effects not felt at the surface until late March when its really doesn't matter.  we'll string along a cool damp spring with some chilly nights into June with temps roaring to triple digits in early july followed by smoke season in early August that will wane in early october with an early season AR

words

 

 

spaces

 

 

something else

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Just shift all those colors south. Blue for you, pepto pink for me!

I would be okay with that!! Let’s do it! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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My entry into the forecast contest last night.

Took a closer look at the models and this looks like a non event from a snowfall perspective. It will still get cold with frigid overnight temperatures though. While I’m not predicting any measureable snow for SEA and PDX, most people should at least see snowflakes in the air at some point before drying out Saturday night. Some of the foothills I can see getting a dusting to 0.5 inches or so. Also the further you go down the Willamette Valley, the better chances to see some light accumulations. Eugene I can see getting 0.5”. It’s going to be a cold end to January! 🥶
 

SEA-

1/28: 44/34 

1/29: 39/29

1/30: 39/25

1/31: 40/29

 

PDX-

1/28: 46/36 

1/29: 39/29

1/30: 41/24

1/31: 43/27

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1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looks like it’s trending a little snowier, too! Still far enough out that I’m not gonna celebrate yet.

Nahhh... go ahead and celebrate now.    Seeing it on a GFS snow map is pretty much as good as it actually happening.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

As of yesterday BLI is at 1.33" for the month. Unless something crazy happens this will be their 4th driest January on record behind 1949, 1985, and 1963. However, all of those months will also end up almost 10 degrees colder (or more) for the average temperature than this month. So probably safe to say this will end being one of the most boring (warmest and driest) Januaries in the last century for the North Sound.

I tried to quickly come up with a somewhat interesting way to represent this. Of course it's hard to compare precipitation and temperature so I ranked all of the last 75 years of Januaries at BLI. In terms of temperatures the warmest January received #1 (coldest was #75) and in terms of precipitation the driest January received #1 (wettest was #75). Then I summed the rankings together. So the highest possible rating was 150 (an epically cold and wet January) and the lowest possible rating was 2 (a boringly warm and dry January). Then I graphed the years here (removing 1997, 1998, and 2013 which all have bad data at BLI). Additionally the color of the dots corresponds to the average temperature for the month (colder than the 30 year average are blue, warmer are red) and the size of the dots corresponds to the total precipitation that month.

It's pretty clear that 2023, 1994, and 1981 are the worst (most boring) years. It's a little hard to decipher the "best" years because Januaries that are quite cold also tend to be dry (and thus don't get much of a bump from their precipitation rankings). Using this metric you might think 1982 was the most interesting January. BLI had 16.4" of snow and 9.3" of rain and an average temperature of 35.1F (5F below today's 30 year average), but I think many would agree the shockingly blue January 1950 lurking off to the left was more "interesting."

BLI_jan_interest_graph_cbar.png.5218af6f41f8795356d1b1194b9be8d2.png

Edit: added an average temperature key to clarify

Didn't realize it was that dry up there. PDX is at 3.20" and Eugene 2.54".

Which pales in comparison to the 9.29" at SFO, 7.54" at SAC, and 9.26" at RDD. Oftentimes such heavy rainfall down there in midwinter is caused by jet suppression and coupled with PNW cold (see Jan 2017, Feb 2019, etc). Not this time, where we actually torched.

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@MossMan Look what we got in the mail today.   Did not sign up or pay for anything.  Fancy invitation and free tickets from the Seattle Boat Show to the Uncorked wine event and the Sails and Ales beer event.   I wonder if buying the new boat last year triggered something in their system and put us on the VIP list?  Fools!   We can't afford their expensive boats.  Summer Dreamin' for sure.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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