RentonHill Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: SSW will come in late Feb with effects not felt at the surface until late March when its really doesn't matter. we'll string along a cool damp spring with some chilly nights into June with temps roaring to triple digits in early july followed by smoke season in early August that will wane in early october with an early season AR wow. bold call. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 5 hours ago, MossMan said: I would take this view over snow views any day…It’s amazing!! Seriously though…This screams January. Even when I was a kid (80’s) I remember so many dull January’s like this and it was so depressing. The only things that got me through was February was usually better in the snow department and I would start getting my fishing gear ready (very early) for opening day in the spring. I would also watch Hank Parker and Bill Dance every Sunday morning…I was such a fishing nut. Need to get back into that as I think the kids would have a blast as well. Where is the foggy react? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 hours ago, TT-SEA said: ECMWF has jumped in the ring as well for Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Not bad. Hopefully we get more moisture to work with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 dont be sad @Cascadia_Wx we need the melt up there. The snow was so high the deer were literally walking over the tops of the orchard fences and just feasting on the trees. 1 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: Not bad. Hopefully we get more moisture to work with. Slight chance of 1 inch very slight chance of two inches so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, RentonHill said: dont be sad @Cascadia_Wx we need the melt up there. The snow was so high the deer were literally walking over the tops of the orchard fences and just feasting on the trees. Probably more like swimming over the tops of the fences if it was that deep. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said: Probably more like swimming over the tops of the fences if it was that deep. The few days of rain/freezing rain after all the snow made a really nice 8-10 inch ice layer on top....they were literally walking with almost no compaction. it was crazy. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 18z RGEM 2 2 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 As of yesterday BLI is at 1.33" for the month. Unless something crazy happens this will be their 4th driest January on record behind 1949, 1985, and 1963. However, all of those months will also end up almost 10 degrees colder (or more) for the average temperature than this month. So probably safe to say this will end being one of the most boring (warmest and driest) Januaries in the last century for the North Sound. I tried to quickly come up with a somewhat interesting way to represent this. Of course it's hard to compare precipitation and temperature so I ranked all of the last 75 years of Januaries at BLI. In terms of temperatures the warmest January received #1 (coldest was #75) and in terms of precipitation the driest January received #1 (wettest was #75). Then I summed the rankings together. So the highest possible rating was 150 (an epically cold and wet January) and the lowest possible rating was 2 (a boringly warm and dry January). Then I graphed the years here (removing 1997, 1998, and 2013 which all have bad data at BLI). Additionally the color of the dots corresponds to the average temperature for the month (colder than the 30 year average are blue, warmer are red) and the size of the dots corresponds to the total precipitation that month. It's pretty clear that 2023, 1994, and 1981 are the worst (most boring) years. It's a little hard to decipher the "best" years because Januaries that are quite cold also tend to be dry (and thus don't get much of a bump from their precipitation rankings). Using this metric you might think 1982 was the most interesting January. BLI had 16.4" of snow and 9.3" of rain and an average temperature of 35.1F (5F below today's 30 year average), but I think many would agree the shockingly blue January 1950 lurking off to the left was more "interesting." Edit: added an average temperature key to clarify 8 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, RentonHill said: The few days of rain/freezing rain after all the snow made a really nice 8-10 inch ice layer on top....they were literally walking with almost no compaction. it was crazy. Ah, yes, the Pacific Northwest and rain-on-snow events even on the east slopes. I once went cross-country skiing in 6 feet of powder in the Rockies. Whenever I fell (and I fell a lot because it was my first time on X-C skis) I definitely went swimming. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: SSW will come in late Feb with effects not felt at the surface until late March when its really doesn't matter. we'll string along a cool damp spring with some chilly nights into June with temps roaring to triple digits in early july followed by smoke season in early August that will wane in early october with an early season AR words spaces something else 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 18Z GFS definitely board with mid-week snow... most of this happens Tuesday night into Wednesday. 3 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Gonna happen 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, TT-SEA said: 18Z GFS definitely board with mid-week snow... most of this happens Tuesday night into Wednesday. I get f'd but it's just one run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Gonna happen druncle really out here trying Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said: druncle really out here trying Whatcom county has a big advantage again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 I’m so tired of these winters. I’m thinking of moving to Des Moines, IA. Do they average temps lower than Portland or should I move further north? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Gonna happen That blue needs to trend south. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: Whatcom county has a big advantage again. that D**n whatcom county... 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 18Z GFS definitely board with mid-week snow... most of this happens Tuesday night into Wednesday. Looks like it’s trending a little snowier, too! Still far enough out that I’m not gonna celebrate yet. 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 I propose kicking all Whatcom County posters to the BC Forums. Everybody that approves, pls drop a weanie reaction. 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said: that D**n whatcom county... 2 3 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: I propose kicking all Whatcom County posters to the BC Forums. Everybody that approves, pls drop a weanie reaction. While they're doing that let's also make the Olympics thirty miles longer to the south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 18 minutes ago, MossMan said: That blue needs to trend south. Just shift all those colors south. Blue for you, pepto pink for me! 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Just shift all those colors south. Blue for you, pepto pink for me! I would be okay with that!! Let’s do it! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 My entry into the forecast contest last night. Took a closer look at the models and this looks like a non event from a snowfall perspective. It will still get cold with frigid overnight temperatures though. While I’m not predicting any measureable snow for SEA and PDX, most people should at least see snowflakes in the air at some point before drying out Saturday night. Some of the foothills I can see getting a dusting to 0.5 inches or so. Also the further you go down the Willamette Valley, the better chances to see some light accumulations. Eugene I can see getting 0.5”. It’s going to be a cold end to January! SEA- 1/28: 44/34 1/29: 39/29 1/30: 39/25 1/31: 40/29 PDX- 1/28: 46/36 1/29: 39/29 1/30: 41/24 1/31: 43/27 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy rocks Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 I am surprised that you have some sun in Camas. I am due south of you in Sandy and its been drizzly all day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, MossMan said: I would be okay with that!! Let’s do it! Seriously, though: Wednesday is five days out. This is just getting out of deep clown range into plain old clown range. Details could well change (and probably will). 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just imagine if this were shown at 240 hours instead of 24. Oh the possibilities… 4 1 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Omak currently at 39 must feel like a massive heatwave for them right now! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Darkness approaching from the NE! 1 1 1 1 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Darkness approaching from the NE! It’s coming!!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Looks like it’s trending a little snowier, too! Still far enough out that I’m not gonna celebrate yet. Nahhh... go ahead and celebrate now. Seeing it on a GFS snow map is pretty much as good as it actually happening. 1 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said: As of yesterday BLI is at 1.33" for the month. Unless something crazy happens this will be their 4th driest January on record behind 1949, 1985, and 1963. However, all of those months will also end up almost 10 degrees colder (or more) for the average temperature than this month. So probably safe to say this will end being one of the most boring (warmest and driest) Januaries in the last century for the North Sound. I tried to quickly come up with a somewhat interesting way to represent this. Of course it's hard to compare precipitation and temperature so I ranked all of the last 75 years of Januaries at BLI. In terms of temperatures the warmest January received #1 (coldest was #75) and in terms of precipitation the driest January received #1 (wettest was #75). Then I summed the rankings together. So the highest possible rating was 150 (an epically cold and wet January) and the lowest possible rating was 2 (a boringly warm and dry January). Then I graphed the years here (removing 1997, 1998, and 2013 which all have bad data at BLI). Additionally the color of the dots corresponds to the average temperature for the month (colder than the 30 year average are blue, warmer are red) and the size of the dots corresponds to the total precipitation that month. It's pretty clear that 2023, 1994, and 1981 are the worst (most boring) years. It's a little hard to decipher the "best" years because Januaries that are quite cold also tend to be dry (and thus don't get much of a bump from their precipitation rankings). Using this metric you might think 1982 was the most interesting January. BLI had 16.4" of snow and 9.3" of rain and an average temperature of 35.1F (5F below today's 30 year average), but I think many would agree the shockingly blue January 1950 lurking off to the left was more "interesting." Edit: added an average temperature key to clarify Didn't realize it was that dry up there. PDX is at 3.20" and Eugene 2.54". Which pales in comparison to the 9.29" at SFO, 7.54" at SAC, and 9.26" at RDD. Oftentimes such heavy rainfall down there in midwinter is caused by jet suppression and coupled with PNW cold (see Jan 2017, Feb 2019, etc). Not this time, where we actually torched. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 26 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Darkness approaching from the NE! Wish the cold air was moving that quickly! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said: I’m so tired of these winters. I’m thinking of moving to Des Moines, IA. Do they average temps lower than Portland or should I move further north? Iowa is flat AF. just go to MT or maybe Northern New England 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Tyler Mode said: Wish the cold air was moving that quickly! Made it from central Manitoba to Ellensburg in two hours! 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 How often do you see 45 in Winthrop and 30 in Omak? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, RentonHill said: How often do you see 45 in Winthrop and 30 in Omak? whenever there's an inversion? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 @MossMan Look what we got in the mail today. Did not sign up or pay for anything. Fancy invitation and free tickets from the Seattle Boat Show to the Uncorked wine event and the Sails and Ales beer event. I wonder if buying the new boat last year triggered something in their system and put us on the VIP list? Fools! We can't afford their expensive boats. Summer Dreamin' for sure. 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said: I’m so tired of these winters. I’m thinking of moving to Des Moines, IA. Do they average temps lower than Portland or should I move further north? Portland, Maine? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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