Jump to content

PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

Recommended Posts

28 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Iowa is flat AF.  just go to MT or maybe Northern New England

I would but I was thinking maybe somewhere colder like Missouri, Tennessee, or maybe even Oklahoma. That’s why I was thinking Iowa. Montana and northern New England just seem like they don’t get enough cold and snow for me. 

  • lol 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

@MossMan Look what we got in the mail today.   Did not sign up or pay for anything.  Fancy invitation and free tickets from the Seattle Boat Show to the Uncorked wine event and the Sails and Ales beer event.   I wonder if buying the new boat last year triggered something in their system and put us on the VIP list?  Fools!   We can't afford their expensive boats.  Summer Dreamin' for sure.  😀

20230127_154727.jpg

Guess me buying a boat that was new in 1994 from a private party did not get me on the same VIP list lol! 

  • Sad 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, AbbyJr said:

This is really confusing and perhaps we need to find a new term or manner by which to address the matter. I say this because it makes no sense to suggest a sudden warming in the stratosphere is not a sudden stratospheric warming event. While I'm not disagreeing with the experts or the science, I am questioning how a sudden warming in the stratosphere could not be regarded as a sudden stratospheric warming.

Another question would be what exactly causes the full wind reversal? Is it the result of the sudden stratospheric warming or is it something separate that finalizes the event? Now I admit that I don't know much at all about this subject so I can see how people who aren't experts like myself would assume that if the stratosphere warms suddenly, that it's a sudden stratospheric warming. That would be my assumption as well.

If the vortex moves far enough off the pole, splits, etc, the mean zonal wind above 60N latitude (circumglobally) becomes easterly instead of westerly. That is what is referred to as a “wind reversal”.

A stratospheric warming is ongoing, but it does not meet the criteria for a SSW. What really matters is the dynamical structure of the vortex, not the temperature rise (which is actually a result of the weakening of the vortex, not a cause).

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

As of yesterday BLI is at 1.33" for the month. Unless something crazy happens this will be their 4th driest January on record behind 1949, 1985, and 1963. However, all of those months will also end up almost 10 degrees colder (or more) for the average temperature than this month. So probably safe to say this will end being one of the most boring (warmest and driest) Januaries in the last century for the North Sound.

I tried to quickly come up with a somewhat interesting way to represent this. Of course it's hard to compare precipitation and temperature so I ranked all of the last 75 years of Januaries at BLI. In terms of temperatures the warmest January received #1 (coldest was #75) and in terms of precipitation the driest January received #1 (wettest was #75). Then I summed the rankings together. So the highest possible rating was 150 (an epically cold and wet January) and the lowest possible rating was 2 (a boringly warm and dry January). Then I graphed the years here (removing 1997, 1998, and 2013 which all have bad data at BLI). Additionally the color of the dots corresponds to the average temperature for the month (colder than the 30 year average are blue, warmer are red) and the size of the dots corresponds to the total precipitation that month.

It's pretty clear that 2023, 1994, and 1981 are the worst (most boring) years. It's a little hard to decipher the "best" years because Januaries that are quite cold also tend to be dry (and thus don't get much of a bump from their precipitation rankings). Using this metric you might think 1982 was the most interesting January. BLI had 16.4" of snow and 9.3" of rain and an average temperature of 35.1F (5F below today's 30 year average), but I think many would agree the shockingly blue January 1950 lurking off to the left was more "interesting."

BLI_jan_interest_graph_cbar.png.5218af6f41f8795356d1b1194b9be8d2.png

Edit: added an average temperature key to clarify

I would have made y-axis temp, x-axis precip, and labeled each dot with a year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I’m so tired of these winters. I’m thinking of moving to Des Moines, IA. Do they average temps lower than Portland or should I move further north? 

It’s a good compromise if you want frequent severe weather too.

Edit: just caught on. lmao

  • Facepalm 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I would but I was thinking maybe somewhere colder like Missouri, Tennessee, or maybe even Oklahoma. That’s why I was thinking Iowa. Montana and northern New England just seem like they don’t get enough cold and snow for me. 

MT gets tons of snow and balls cold.

 

Maybe the UP of Michigan.  get your lake effect on

  • Like 1
  • Sick 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

with that said we recently purchased some land in SW VA not far from the Blue Ridge Parkway near Roanoke.  4 seasons and closer to fam in SC and MD.  plan to build over there in about 10-12 ish years when we approach retirement.  move over there full time when we retire.  VA is a legal weed state now too, the only one in the South, for Recreational and cultivation if you're so inclined. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Coastal Maine actually does bear a striking resemblance to the westside PNW. Especially the farther north you go. The hilly, conifer dominated landscape is almost a clone.

I’ve been to both places so I have at least some perspective.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s a good compromise if you want frequent severe weather too.

Edit: just caught on. lmao

It’s actually not that bad in central Oregon. Winters have been kind of lame lately, relatively, but we’ve had highs around 10 thus far and it looks like Sunday will be in the teens most of the day. The snow though, it’s been sparse lately. I think I’ve had about 16” so far this winter but it hasn’t stuck around very long. 

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Coastal Maine actually does bear a striking resemblance to the westside PNW. Especially the farther north you go. The hilly, conifer dominated landscape is almost a clone.

I’ve been to both places so I have at least some perspective.

loved my time in New England lived 4 years in the Mt Washington Valley near Conway, NH.  average near 100" of snow a year.  big storms, Noreasta's. had a few storms with 30"+ totals, wasn't too uncommon

  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

with that said we recently purchased some land in SW VA not far from the Blue Ridge Parkway near Roanoke.  4 seasons and closer to fam in SC and MD.  plan to build over there in about 10-12 ish years when we approach retirement.  move over there full time when we retire.  VA is a legal weed state now too, the only one in the South, for Recreational and cultivation with you're so inclined. 

Are you on the upslope or downslope side of the terrain? Will make a huge difference w/rt your snow/precip totals and cloud cover. Oh, and summer temps.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have to say this is far from terrible and it has been trending a bit better each run.  EPO also goes minus again later in the run.  Still looking at a very high chance of a cold Feb.  How cold is the question.

1674820800-zJ6RaohAviwgrb2.png

  • Like 4

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

Iowa is flat AF.  just go to MT or maybe Northern New England

I was in Chicago for a week in September. Didn't really know just how flat it was until then.

Having mountains in your backyard is really a pretty special thing.

Man, imagine liking snow and living in Florida.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Green lake in the 1920s. Not sure I’ve seen it like that in my short life. 1F5B8048-395F-44BD-987E-80E53B385640.jpeg.6eac62a8b0dc7d5db36c4f6334aa021d.jpeg

Great pic!  Adding that to my collection.  No...it hasn't been frozen like that in a long time.  

I'm betting that is either December 1924 or February 1929.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Are you on the upslope or downslope side of the terrain? Will make a huge difference w/rt your snow/precip totals and cloud cover. Oh, and summer temps.

it's a plateau-y area in floyd county.  Not moving there for snow per-se. just want all seasons and something milder than the sandhills/coastal plains over there. my family is in columbia sc (hot/humid as the 3rd ring of hell in summer) my wife's fam is in Myrtle Beach, SC and Laurel MD.  it's a nice 'not too close, but not too far' location to prevent surprise visits if you know what I mean, but also be able to get to people in less than a days drive.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I propose kicking all  Whatcom County posters to the BC Forums. Everybody that approves, pls drop a weanie reaction. 

 

I like Whatcom County.  Really intended on moving there quite some time ago.

  • Like 6

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

it's a plateau-y area in floyd county.  Not moving there for snow per-se. just want all seasons and something milder than the sandhills/coastal plains. my family is in columbia sc (hot as the 3rd ring of hell in summer) my wife's fam is in Myrtle Beach, SC and Laurel MD.  it's a nice 'not too close, but not too far' location to prevent surprise visits if you know what I mean, but also be able to get to people in less than a days drive.

You already live in a place that has all 4 seasons and plenty of snow.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Great pic!  Adding that to my collection.  No...it hasn't been frozen like that in a long time.  

I'm betting that is either December 1924 or February 1929.

Those winters must have been amazing out in our neck of the woods. Must have been pretty special for green lake to look like that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

it's a plateau-y area in floyd county.  Not moving there for snow per-se. just want all seasons and something milder than the sandhills/coastal plains over there. my family is in columbia sc (hot/humid as the 3rd ring of hell in summer) my wife's fam is in Myrtle Beach, SC and Laurel MD.  it's a nice 'not too close, but not too far' location to prevent surprise visits if you know what I mean, but also be able to get to people in less than a days drive.

Gotcha. You’ll get some sick thunderstorm winds if you’re on the lee side of the terrain. Nocturnal activity often triggers localized heat bursts.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

You already live in a place that has all 4 seasons and plenty of snow.

I know.  I'm tired of the summer smoke for one, it's becoming pretty much annual on this side of the state.  Also all of our family but one brother in law in Idaho live on the east coast.  this isn't anything happening tomorrow, its 10-15 years down the road.  but we went ahead and bought the land now.  land is always a good asset to have even if we end up not building on it.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today was my 13th straight high below 50.  Working on another pretty good streak.

  • Like 1
  • Shivering 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Picked up 7" of very wet snow throughout the day here today. Snow has really picked up this evening and temps are starting to drop so accumulations should really pick up overnight. Should still end up with 15-20" of snow by the time all is said and done.

Currently 27F with heavy snow.

  • Like 5
  • Snow 2

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

You know it’s been a rough 5 weeks when sub 50 streaks are highlights. 

Awesome winter climate we have here.  

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice day! 

07BF1AA6-C6F4-49DE-96B2-75E70102F342.jpeg

  • Like 4

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Phil said:

If the vortex moves far enough off the pole, splits, etc, the mean zonal wind above 60N latitude (circumglobally) becomes easterly instead of westerly. That is what is referred to as a “wind reversal”.

A stratospheric warming is ongoing, but it does not meet the criteria for a SSW. What really matters is the dynamical structure of the vortex, not the temperature rise (which is actually a result of the weakening of the vortex, not a cause).

Thanks for your explanation Phil.

I would also like to add that according to Wikipedia, if the winds are slowed but don't reverse, its considered a minor SSW event. However, if the winds fully reverse, then its considered a major event.

Under this understanding, in both cases the stratosphere warms suddenly. However, during a major event, there is a complete disruption to the vortex. My guess is that when the experts talk about a SSW event, they are referring to a major SSW where there is a full wind reversal and vortex disruption rather than a minor one where the winds are slowed but remain westerly.

One more question:

From what I understand but correct me if I'm wrong, when there is a full wind reversal, the vortex either splits or gets dislodged. However, in the case of a minor event where there is a sudden warming but no wind reversal, would the vortex still weaken?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Whenever I talk to visitors from really snowy climates like Alaska or South Dakota, the main point about the snow and cold is usually all of the problems it causes! Nice to have it every once in a while but not a constant. 

If they truly live in a snowy climate, snow doesn’t cause any disruptions. Even with a winter storm warning and about 10” (so far!) in Bozeman today it was business as usual. No school closures or delays (hasn’t been a snow day in Bozeman since the 70’s) and everyone still goes to work and is on time.
 

When you live in a climate that averages ~100” of snow every year life continues on just like any other day.

  • Like 7

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

@MossMan Look what we got in the mail today.   Did not sign up or pay for anything.  Fancy invitation and free tickets from the Seattle Boat Show to the Uncorked wine event and the Sails and Ales beer event.   I wonder if buying the new boat last year triggered something in their system and put us on the VIP list?  Fools!   We can't afford their expensive boats.  Summer Dreamin' for sure.  😀

20230127_154727.jpg

I received the same. Not sure how I'm on the VIP list either. Makes me excited for summer and boating season though! 

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1
  • Downvote 1
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...