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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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30 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Whenever I talk to visitors from really snowy climates like Alaska or South Dakota, the main point about the snow and cold is usually all of the problems it causes! Nice to have it every once in a while but not a constant.Β 

I would be perfectly fine with constant snow/snowcover. And my dogs would be much less muddy.Β 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth!Β 

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1 hour ago, JW8 said:

I received the same. Not sure how I'm on the VIP list either. Makes me excited for summer and boating season though!Β 

Nice!Β Β 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just got home from dinner and checking the models... looks like the GFS and GEM have pretty much done away with the snow chances on Tuesday into Wednesday.Β Β 

Also interesting that the WRF is almost totally dry for tomorrow.Β  Β That model really struggles sometimes.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, AbbyJr said:

One more question:

From what I understand but correct me if I'm wrong, when there is a full wind reversal, the vortex either splits or gets dislodged. However, in the case of a minor event where there is a sudden warming but no wind reversal, would the vortex still weaken?

Yes typically it does. But that may not be enough to couple w/ the tropospheric circulation and/or influence the MJO/tropics.

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30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just got home from dinner and checking the models... looks like the GFS and GEM have pretty much done away with the snow chances on Tuesday into Wednesday.Β Β 

Also interesting that the WRF is almost totally dry for tomorrow.Β  Β That model really struggles sometimes.

It’s not coming!!!Β 

  • Excited 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth!Β 

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Tonight's GFS is far from terrible.Β  After the cold snap it shows suppressed jet and some incarnation of GOA ridging pretty consistently.Β  Lots of opportunity for below normal temps.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

Β 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Β 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Β 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is 10 p.m. temps... but precip is south of Portland by 7 p.m.Β 

Β 

Road trip to Snowmizer’s cabin!!Β 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth!Β 

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.57” on the day, 4.71” for the month.Β 
Currently 40 degrees.Β 
BBQ weather!Β 

A19FCBD6-8DE3-4A27-85F7-069882F7A44E.jpeg

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth!Β 

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9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea it was a rough approximation. Hard to model ride at a barπŸ˜‚

Oh to be young again…

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth!Β 

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Oof. Some ugly runs tonight.Β 

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SnowfallΒ  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2021-22: 91.46"Β 

2020-21: 12.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2012-13: 78.45Β Β 

2011-12: 98.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill!Β 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

Β 

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2 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

The problem with this online (and real?) persona is that it's *very* hard to tell the difference between your sarcasm and being dead serious.

It's annoying and refreshing all at once.

That’s when sarcasm is at its best.Β 

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Currently 42.5 and light rain. I’m honestly looking forward to the sunny days after being stuck in the drizzle for so long. Even if they are relatively chilly days.

  • Rain 1

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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59 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oof. Some ugly runs tonight.Β 

I kind of disagree.Β  The GFS looks chilly overall to me.

  • Shivering 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

Β 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Β 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Β 

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This kind of says the reports of the death of La Nina are a bit premature.

nino34.png

  • Shivering 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

Β 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Β 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Β 

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Sure seeing lot of indications the Feb 10 to Feb 15 period might be a period to watch for things to get interesting again.

  • Like 7

Death To Warm Anomalies!

Β 

Winter 2023-24 stats

Β 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

Β 

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19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I kind of disagree.Β  The GFS looks chilly overall to me.

Maybe a little chilly, but overall more of the same.Β 

  • Shivering 1

SnowfallΒ  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2021-22: 91.46"Β 

2020-21: 12.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2012-13: 78.45Β Β 

2011-12: 98.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill!Β 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

Β 

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6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS Day 1-16. Pretty good signal for a chilly air mass long range. Might be worth keeping an eye on the 2/9 - 2/15 time frame.

floop-gefsens-2023012800.500h_anom-mean.na(1).gif

I’m guessing these troughs focus on CA, and we end up with sloppy 2nds.Β 

  • Like 1

SnowfallΒ  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2021-22: 91.46"Β 

2020-21: 12.0"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2012-13: 78.45Β Β 

2011-12: 98.5"Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β  Β 2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill!Β 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

Β 

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