SnowWillarrive Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 40 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Flurries for PDX tonight? Castle rock big winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Jim is so right. Big league potential mid month. Even in the past mid Feb has had some of the best February events on record. It's kind of the end of the period that can deliver an absolute top tier event. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 Are we jinxing February before it even starts?  1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 Not sure why anyone would doubt the MJO connection to this. Right when the MJO exploded in region 3 is when the models really started to go nuts over this blocking regime. The block hasn't changed much from original expectation. The details are what deballed this. I would take my chances with this basic 500mb pattern any day. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just now, TT-SEA said: Are we jinxing February before it even starts?  I'm still not totally sold on there being a big cold wave, but the chances are very high the month will end up a solid minus. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 11 hours ago, snow_wizard said: This kind of says the reports of the death of La Nina are a bit premature. The transition from Nina to Nino typically starts at Nino 1+2 and transitions westward with 3.4 being last to warm. Â 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just now, snow_wizard said: I'm still not totally sold on there being a big cold wave, but the chances are very high the month will end up a solid minus. Lots can change.  But a colder than normal February can still be completely forgettable considering the average high in the 50s. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Are we jinxing February before it even starts?  Probably. I’m feeling snow at our elevations though. 1 Quote Snowfall                 Precip 2022-23: 95.0"           2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"          2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0"          2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"          2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"          2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"          2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"          2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"         2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"         2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"         2012-13: 78.45  2011-12: 98.5"          2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Lots can change.  But a colder than normal February can still be completely forgettable considering the average high in the 50s. Agreed, I don't care about a negative anomaly for a 28 day period. I care about an actual winter event with snow. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 (edited) Beautiful day in Tulsa. Windy, by a Tim-tastic 58. Hate to admit it, but I love days like this in January. Temps won’t get out of the 30s though tomorrow. It’s interesting to compare Tulsa to when I first moved here in 2006, and then compare Portland to what it was like back then. 🫠Edited January 28, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew 2 Quote Snowfall                 Precip 2022-23: 95.0"           2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"          2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0"          2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"          2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"          2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"          2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"          2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"         2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"         2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"         2012-13: 78.45  2011-12: 98.5"          2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Whatever your opinion on the matter, an SSW is happening right now. Not sure about all of the talk of the details being wrong, but it's there. Did you just skip over the entire discussion between @AbbyJrand @Phil yesterday? 4 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Lots can change.  But a colder than normal February can still be completely forgettable considering the average high in the 50s. Feeling like the pattern stays fairly progressive from here. Maybe a deep transient trough or two but with any cold offshore flow probably relegated to the most northern areas if at all. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 A surprise 2" late overnight/early this morning (I went to bed at 1:30am was no snow, woke up at 9am to 2"). sunny now and the winds are picking up. Some blowing and drifting would love to see a couple more negative temps before we put a fork in this winter. 29 WC 20  2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Feeling like the pattern stays fairly progressive from here. Maybe a deep transient trough or two but with any cold offshore flow probably relegated to the most northern areas if at all. Good call. Quote Snowfall                 Precip 2022-23: 95.0"           2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"          2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0"          2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"          2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"          2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"          2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"          2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"         2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"         2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"         2012-13: 78.45  2011-12: 98.5"          2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said: And winter weather advisory issued starting around 4 PM. that's what we just had Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Feeling like the pattern stays fairly progressive from here. Maybe a deep transient trough or two but with any cold offshore flow probably relegated to the most northern areas if at all. That is my sense as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: That is my sense as well. You and I are gonna do well as the month progresses. 1 Quote Snowfall                 Precip 2022-23: 95.0"           2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"          2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0"          2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"          2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"          2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"          2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"          2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"         2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"         2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"         2012-13: 78.45  2011-12: 98.5"          2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 wonder if we get a late season finale like 2019 (late feb/early march) we had a decent storm followed by ground blizzards around March 1st that year  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: You and I are gonna do well as the month progresses. I am not feeling it for my area yet... but your area being farther south and at a higher elevation is likely to do better. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 12Z ECMWF is less favorable for the northern areas with the mid-week system.   1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: You and I are gonna do well as the month progresses. I'm expecting to see some as well. I normally get snow with forecasted 1000ft snow levels and I'm thinking there's going to be a couple cold troughs that deliver. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z ECMWF is less favorable for the northern areas with the mid-week system.   Poor Ludicrous 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just checking the Fraser Canyon for any low level cold. Lytton has had a strong North wind for 5 hours but temp is still 37F. Dew points are starting to drop though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 Sitting at 32F. Trying to drink my coffee before my son asks us to go to the park 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I'm expecting to see some as well. I normally get snow with forecasted 1000ft snow levels and I'm thinking there's going to be a couple cold troughs that deliver. Your area might do better than mine depending on how the upcoming pattern shakes out.  Seeing signs of troughs going through CA which is definitely better for your area.  Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 Chilly gfs run, I haven't looked past 180 hrs in a minute but there's a couple chances for some low snow levels. 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 One thing we have in our favor for later this evening is temps are running below forecast right now and the low clouds and fog don’t seem to be in a hurry to go anywhere. That said, I ain’t holding my breath. 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Your area might do better than mine depending on how the upcoming pattern shakes out.  Seeing signs of troughs going through CA which is definitely better for your area.  A trough with the 528 line south of me usually is cold enough over here for borderline snow. North wind suddenly picked up here as we speak, 20 -25mph. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: A trough with the 528 line south of me usually is cold enough over here for borderline snow. North wind suddenly picked up here as we speak, 20 -25mph. Dry air is moving in... Bellingham is finally clearing out now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 It’s coming!! Blue skies are coming!! 4 2 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 I'm not complaining at all, but I'm wondering if I should bring my rain gauge back out if I'm not going to have snow. I don't like using it in the winter due to freezes and afraid of warping. That said looks like the next few days will be subfreezing.  Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 13 minutes ago, MossMan said: It’s coming!! Blue skies are coming!! Here is Bellingham looking south towards your area. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Here is Bellingham looking south towards your area. This was my house when I left an hour ago…We got socked in but that should be changing rapidly! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 12z ECMWF looks decent at the end... but there is not much cold air to work with at that time and its a progressive pattern.  1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12z ECMWF looks decent at the end... but there is not much cold air to work with at that time and its a progressive pattern.  Yeah I’ve seen that showing up in some of the operational runs. It’s just a fairly cool trough, but maybe something that could cause some low snow levels in specific cases like we saw last week. 1 Quote Snowfall                 Precip 2022-23: 95.0"           2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6"          2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0"          2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5"          2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5"          2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3"          2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2"          2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75"         2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75"         2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75"         2012-13: 78.45  2011-12: 98.5"          2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil.  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 minute ago, Terreboner2 said: Plenty of time for that cutoff low to not be there. Not really the issue... its a progressive patten either way.  1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Dry air is moving in... Bellingham is finally clearing out now. Yep. Agassiz is 45F but the dp is down to 24F. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12z ECMWF looks decent at the end... but there is not much cold air to work with at that time and its a progressive pattern.  So in reality, it doesn’t look decent at all. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 14 minutes ago, MossMan said: This was my house when I left an hour ago…We got socked in but that should be changing rapidly! Merry Christmas! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2023 Report Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, umadbro said: So in reality, it doesn’t look decent at all. Maybe it could be... but that one frame looks better than it does if you run the loop or look at 850mb temps. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by Cascadia_Wx,
Legendary
Recommended by Meatyorologist
16 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.