PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Just west of the West Hills. We get an enhanced east wind downsloping off of them. Makes for some very fun snowstorms!

That area the ECMWF only shows near 40 for gusts.  Beware it isn't perfect though.  For some reason the model doesn't do well for North Bend up this way.  It is often low with that location.  For my area it usually does very well.

[Cloud]

48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This forum is a straight up ghost town. 

 

18 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Eye of the storm.

I think I saw as little as 10 registered members on last night or the night before for the 0z run. Probably the fewest I’ve seen in a while but it does have that feel calm before the storm kinda feel. Nothing worthy to track in the meantime. 

[snow_wizard]

That storm is just tearing it up over the NE Pacific right now.  The ECMWF shows this is basically a cat 1 hurricane for winds.

wxloop ir4km 12 (washington.edu)

[Requiem]

57 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What does the Euro show for here? The WRF-GFS is showing 50mph+ gusts for my location.

I'd take the EURO predictions for the metro with a grain of salt-- usually underdoes gusts by a fair margin. In September 2020 for example-- model output was at face value for gusts in the mid to low 30s for PDX. We know what actually panned out...

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12Z ECMWF brings back the 60-burgers but the 18Z takes them away again. Both, however, are on the torchy side.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

If you don’t want it to torch hard on Friday, the latest Goofus is your friend. But then you’re friends with Goofus.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

42F out there with the occasional shower.

My wife had to wake me up from an epileptic episode when she got home from work. Not sure how long I was out for.

[LowerGarfield]

Currently 27F outside. A bit cool.

[KingstonWX]

My temp says 32 and precip is moving in. I'm confused. I wonder if I'm in a cold pocket, or if my station is acting up again. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If you don’t want it to torch hard on Friday, the latest Goofus is your friend. But then you’re friends with Goofus.

Gfs seems to bring more moisture in. Seems pretty torchy later next week though. Either way the torch is going to happen at some point in the next 10 days. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Wet

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wet

 

Praise Allah. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Is this going to be a bad thing for this year's Napa crop? This much of a shock to them?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I've never seen this much rain modeled in a 384 hr map for the Bay Area

[Christensen87]

The amount of rain shown on the GFS the next week for the Bay Area is insane. This could cause many problems. 
 

18z CFS sucks. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Is this going to be a bad thing for this year's Napa crop? This much of a shock to them?

I doubt it will affect many vineyards much. The vines are dormant this time of year. Biggest threat would be flood damage to the lower-lying vineyards.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I've never seen this much rain modeled in a 384 hr map for the Bay Area

I lived in the Bay Area briefly. The purple zones tend to be high-rainfall areas as it is. If you go there, you see mostly redwood forests, and big trees don’t grow on sunshine alone. And the storms in California tend to feature harder, heavier rain than our storms do (probably as a result of the warmer temperatures). Those purple areas get storms that dump 3–5" in one event most years, sometimes multiple such storms per season.

Still a lot of rain. There will be flooding and landslides.

[Deweydog]

The San Francisco treat!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I've never seen this much rain modeled in a 384 hr map for the Bay Area

What a blessing that would be for them. 

[AlTahoe]

39 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I've never seen this much rain modeled in a 384 hr map for the Bay Area

I don't know what to think anymore. Models have gone crazy. I hope I can avoid property damage.

[Slushy Inch]

At least we will get some stronger systems. Curious how it evolves from here.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I don't know what to think anymore. Models have gone crazy. I hope I can avoid property damage.

Will this be all rain for the Tahoe area?  Rain or snow, it's a problem.

[Front Ranger]

Ways to go.

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I don't know what to think anymore. Models have gone crazy. I hope I can avoid property damage.

It definitely could be bad, but keep in mind people are posting 300+ hour maps. Not only highly inaccurate, but that's precip spread over a 2 week period.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Ways to go.

I mean, there first serious system hasn't even started yet.

[Deweydog]

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[Slushy Inch]

Feels so weird to see all those systems head towards CA, it's been quite down there for so long.

[RentonHill]

59 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I've never seen this much rain modeled in a 384 hr map for the Bay Area

"California needs some rain"

[Slushy Inch]

With positive height trends like this over the Northeast Pacific, we might start to an interesting development. 

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It definitely could be bad, but keep in mind people are posting 300+ hour maps. Not only highly inaccurate, but that's precip spread over a 2 week period.

That being said, both the GFS and CMC definitely juiced things up over the next 7 days. This would be apocalyptic, especially after all the rain that comes before.

[Cloud]

21 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I mean, there first serious system hasn't even started yet.

If anything I’d say they already started…. 3 days ago and that barely put a dent in the drought situation down there. But what’s being forecast is some serious drought busting rain. 
 

 

[Slushy Inch]

[smerfylicious]

Spent the day in Brian's neck of the woods. Gorgeous out in Leavenworth currently and the drive down Tumwater canyon is just...special when there's feet of snow along the Wenatchee River. 

I'd live there in a heartbeat if I could

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Spent the day in Brian's neck of the woods. Gorgeous out in Leavenworth currently and the drive down Tumwater canyon is just...special when there's feet of snow along the Wenatchee River. 

I'd live there in a heartbeat if I could

No doubt.  Either Cle Elum, somewhere around Leavenworth, Winthrop.  Many good possibilities over there.  The town of Leavenworth itself though would be awfully touristy.

[snow_wizard]

41 minutes ago, Cloud said:

If anything I’d say they already started…. 3 days ago and that barely put a dent in the drought situation down there. But what’s being forecast is some serious drought busting rain. 
 

 

A lot of 19th century action in that list.

[snow_wizard]

Nice improvement on the GEFS tonight.  Lower PNA, lower 850s, and a stronger GOA ridge signal.  The final part of this month is very much in play.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Nice improvement on the GEFS tonight.  Lower PNA, lower 850s, and a stronger GOA ridge signal.  The final part of this month is very much in play.

Agreed!

[JSnowlin]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

God, what a fukkin' tool, the west coast version of Ryan Hall.

Just waitin' for him to pull a Copic in his Tesla. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Feels so weird to see all those systems head towards CA, it's been quite down there for so long.

Kind of nice to have it a bit drier up here this season.  I know a lot of people like it very wet, but we've had more than our share for years now.

[Doinko]

Does anyone have any information on the late December 1927/early January 1928 event? Portland had a 19/14 day with 0.99" of precip and then a 24/15 day with 1.40" of precip yet they only had 2.3" of snow. Must've been a crazy ice storm

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Does anyone have any information on the late December 1927/early January 1928 event? Portland had a 19/14 day with 0.99" of precip and then a 24/15 day with 1.40" of precip yet they only had 2.3" of snow. Must've been a crazy ice storm

There were so many Arctic outbreaks in the 1920s it's insane.  I know December 1927 was a cold month overall.

[Slushy Inch]

[Slushy Inch]

Deep trough.

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I mean, there first serious system hasn't even started yet.

I'm in the white!

But seriously I'm more interested in seeing what it looks like this Thursday as their most recent system move through on the 30th and 31st when SF had its second highest daily rainfall since the gold rush. My parents probably had close to six inches in two or three days.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

57 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt.  Either Cle Elum, somewhere around Leavenworth, Winthrop.  Many good possibilities over there.  The town of Leavenworth itself though would be awfully touristy.

It is touristy for sure, and December is crazy.  Traffic at times is awful.  Leads to a good local economy though, and it's nice to be in a small town with so many restaurants, a summer Theatre, and a performing arts center that all only exist in this small town because of tourism.  

[SimplySmoothWX]

The 00Z GFS shows a 'Megaflood' for California. Similar to the one in 1861

For once, I wish the GFS is wrong 

[AlTahoe]

my driveway currently with 6' berms lining all the streets. I can handle another 100" inches of snow. It's the 8"+ inches of rain being shown that I can't handle. Gonna be a mess especially if it switches back and forth

[Slushy Inch]

East coast torch.

[Slushy Inch]

Newest CFS.