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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If you don’t want it to torch hard on Friday, the latest Goofus is your friend. But then you’re friends with Goofus.

gfs-deterministic-or_wa-t2m_f_max6-3049600(1).thumb.png.905ac8ae724d58b8d725136a973ca408.png

Gfs seems to bring more moisture in. Seems pretty torchy later next week though. Either way the torch is going to happen at some point in the next 10 days. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wet

 

D96E5538-44AB-427D-AA86-8052BBDEB7E7.png

Praise Allah. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Is this going to be a bad thing for this year's Napa crop? This much of a shock to them?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 41F (Nov 21, 2023)
  • Coldest low: 22F (Nov 25, 2023)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Nov 29, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 30, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F) *1 sub-freezing high since Jan 14, 2017 (fewest on record during 6 year span)*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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I've never seen this much rain modeled in a 384 hr map for the Bay Area

1.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 41F (Nov 21, 2023)
  • Coldest low: 22F (Nov 25, 2023)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Nov 29, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 30, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F) *1 sub-freezing high since Jan 14, 2017 (fewest on record during 6 year span)*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Is this going to be a bad thing for this year's Napa crop? This much of a shock to them?

I doubt it will affect many vineyards much. The vines are dormant this time of year. Biggest threat would be flood damage to the lower-lying vineyards.

 

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I've never seen this much rain modeled in a 384 hr map for the Bay Area

1.png

I lived in the Bay Area briefly. The purple zones tend to be high-rainfall areas as it is. If you go there, you see mostly redwood forests, and big trees don’t grow on sunshine alone. And the storms in California tend to feature harder, heavier rain than our storms do (probably as a result of the warmer temperatures). Those purple areas get storms that dump 3–5" in one event most years, sometimes multiple such storms per season.

Still a lot of rain. There will be flooding and landslides.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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23 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I've never seen this much rain modeled in a 384 hr map for the Bay Area

1.png

What a blessing that would be for them. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I don't know what to think anymore. Models have gone crazy. I hope I can avoid property damage.

It definitely could be bad, but keep in mind people are posting 300+ hour maps. Not only highly inaccurate, but that's precip spread over a 2 week period.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It definitely could be bad, but keep in mind people are posting 300+ hour maps. Not only highly inaccurate, but that's precip spread over a 2 week period.

That being said, both the GFS and CMC definitely juiced things up over the next 7 days. This would be apocalyptic, especially after all the rain that comes before.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_swus_24.png

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A forum for the end of the world.

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21 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I mean, there first serious system hasn't even started yet.

If anything I’d say they already started…. 3 days ago and that barely put a dent in the drought situation down there. But what’s being forecast is some serious drought busting rain. 
 

 

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17 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Spent the day in Brian's neck of the woods. Gorgeous out in Leavenworth currently and the drive down Tumwater canyon is just...special when there's feet of snow along the Wenatchee River. 

I'd live there in a heartbeat if I could20230102_160808.thumb.jpg.369bf8357fca8ad86348ed487da0ac61.jpg20230102_160324.thumb.jpg.bfb283341e734dfb04186043c273c296.jpg

No doubt.  Either Cle Elum, somewhere around Leavenworth, Winthrop.  Many good possibilities over there.  The town of Leavenworth itself though would be awfully touristy.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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41 minutes ago, Cloud said:

If anything I’d say they already started…. 3 days ago and that barely put a dent in the drought situation down there. But what’s being forecast is some serious drought busting rain. 
 

 

A lot of 19th century action in that list.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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Nice improvement on the GEFS tonight.  Lower PNA, lower 850s, and a stronger GOA ridge signal.  The final part of this month is very much in play.

1672790400-YZ38ctDYEawgrb2.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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1 hour ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Feels so weird to see all those systems head towards CA, it's been quite down there for so long.

Kind of nice to have it a bit drier up here this season.  I know a lot of people like it very wet, but we've had more than our share for years now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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Does anyone have any information on the late December 1927/early January 1928 event? Portland had a 19/14 day with 0.99" of precip and then a 24/15 day with 1.40" of precip yet they only had 2.3" of snow. Must've been a crazy ice storm

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7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Does anyone have any information on the late December 1927/early January 1928 event? Portland had a 19/14 day with 0.99" of precip and then a 24/15 day with 1.40" of precip yet they only had 2.3" of snow. Must've been a crazy ice storm

There were so many Arctic outbreaks in the 1920s it's insane.  I know December 1927 was a cold month overall.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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1 hour ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I mean, there first serious system hasn't even started yet.

I'm in the white!

But seriously I'm more interested in seeing what it looks like this Thursday as their most recent system move through on the 30th and 31st when SF had its second highest daily rainfall since the gold rush. My parents probably had close to six inches in two or three days.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Stats:

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

Last Sub freezing Day: 11/29/23 (2nd)

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57 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt.  Either Cle Elum, somewhere around Leavenworth, Winthrop.  Many good possibilities over there.  The town of Leavenworth itself though would be awfully touristy.

It is touristy for sure, and December is crazy.  Traffic at times is awful.  Leads to a good local economy though, and it's nice to be in a small town with so many restaurants, a summer Theatre, and a performing arts center that all only exist in this small town because of tourism.  

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Looks like the low so far this morning is 35. Atleast we’ve been getting lows into the low-mid 30s these first couple days of the month. Not much else interesting besides that…

2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-39

Lowest Min-27

Sub 40 Highs-1

Sub 32 Highs-0

Freezes-13

Rainfall MTD-5.41”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 8.89”

Total snowfall-0.0”

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19 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Forums been even more dead than some low points in the summertime lol

It’s true. Nina dormancy. Don’t worry. I am always here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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