PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[SouthHillFrosty]

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’m all in for a cold January/January 2006 redux. Tough to lose!

Could still wind up dangerously close to the 1991-2020 average at PDX!! 

Making neither scenario correct!!

[Requiem]

It is dumping snow and sticking for... reasons 

[BLI snowman]

Definitely the biggest flakes of the winter so far.

[Mr Marine Layer]

Portland had the boring old r word.

[Cold Snap]

Currently 38.4 with light rain. Probably won’t see snow with this IMBY unless the precip rates really pick up.

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

 

I was just up at the parking area. They are packed! 5 years ago no people used that area for the most part. Not like now anyway. I recognize that area. 

I just made it to the top!

[Deweydog]

Big fat flakes in bulk at a certain piece of commerce heaven!

[TacomaWx]

About 1” and snowing good at 1600’. Finally have decent cell service.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nice! 

[Perturbed Member]

Some decent results on the eastern sides of the coast range

[TT-SEA]

Light rain and 40 here.

[SnowySeeker50]

The rain has won and up to 34 degrees. The big flakes were nice while they lasted.

[Hour364Please]

A touch of light snow on South Hill of Puyallup.  Nothing in the valley though but cold rain.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[SnowWillarrive]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Light rain and 40 here.

Yea weird and it’s snowing in Kent/Auburn valley per reports online. Not often you see snow in valley areas and rain in the foothills here. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

About 1” and snowing good at 1600’. Finally have decent cell service.

I remember the old days when we could drive to the lookout

[SouthHillFrosty]

Also Euro Control goes crazy 

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... EPS and control run also shifting west.  The control run goes to a massive GOA trough after day 10.

Here is run-to-run change on the EPS in the long range...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

About 3/4 inch here.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

About 3/4 inch here.

Pretty darn windy up here. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Also Euro Control goes crazy 

Might be some serious terrain bleed there... because the 500mb pattern on the control run could not be more different than its 00Z run.

 

[snow_wizard]

Ended up with some snow here.  Kind of alternating between rain and snow.  Still only 33 though.

[snow_wizard]

If memory serves the ECMWF has a long known bias of kicking too much energy SW underneath a block like the one coming up.  Not too worried about this run.

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Light rain and 40 here.

This is a pretty rare case where inversionary cold air leftover here made a difference with precip type.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... EPS and control run also shifting west.  The control run goes to a massive GOA trough after day 10.

Here is run-to-run change on the EPS in the long range...

 

I would have been shocked if everything stayed perfect right up to when the possible good pattern sets up.  That NEVER happens.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty good chance the ECMWF is too aggressive with the warming in King County later today.  It's been known to do that in cases like this.

[SouthHillFrosty]

We drift a little to far west

[Cold Snap]

Starting to get some chunky rain!

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would have been shocked if everything stayed perfect right up to when the possible good pattern sets up.  That NEVER happens.

True... no way to know yet.   Maybe the westward shift is real and we are just starting to see it in the models now or maybe everything will shift east again.    The latter would be a compromise with the GFS.

[Mr Marine Layer]

30 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I just made it to the top!

How high?

[TT-SEA]

Snowing at Tiger Mountain summit now on Hwy 18 at 1,300 feet.  

 

[selkirks]

About 37ºF here near U-Village and I have some flakes mixing in!  

Was looking outside seeing some chunky rain, and was very surprised as I didn't think it was that cold. Now it's solidly a rain/snow mix. Very pleasant surprise!

[MWG]

37F and sunny! 

[TT-SEA]

And now some massive flakes here.

[RCola]

Snowing in Belltown right now. Huge flakes! Probably won't last long but still nice to see. 

I missed out on the good stuff in December, so I'm hoping we get a part 2 at the end of this month.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And now some massive flakes here.

Flakes starting to mix here too. Heavier precip must be helping. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some incredibly heavy snow the past 30 minutes. Solid coating on everything now. 

[runninthruda206]

big heavy wet balls of snow in the udistrict

[ShawniganLake]

18 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We drift a little to far west

Looks promising for Andrews cold onshore flow

[Deweydog]

I’d crap myself if I saw this and would definitely think it’s coming.

 

[RayRay]

Snow mixed with rain

u district at sea level

[Cold Snap]

Druncle must have killed 2/5ths of vodka this morning or something 2 feet in places in the Florida panhandle WTF?! Obviously not going to happen but the fact it’s even spitting something out as ridiculous as this.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Good signal on the 12z EPS for a longish period of below normal temps in the mid to long range. Obviously details are still up in the air at this point.

[bainbridgekid]

 

 

Dumping huge wet flakes here in Everett. Video doesn’t do it justice but it’s really coming down hard.

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Druncle must have killed 2/5ths of vodka this morning or something 2 feet in places in the Florida panhandle WTF?! Obviously not going to happen but the fact it’s even spitting something out as ridiculous as this.

Poor DC, 6" there while Norfolk gets 2 feet

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Good signal on the 12z EPS for a longish period of below normal temps in the mid to long range. Obviously details are still up in the air at this point.

I’d like to see more really cold members, but that’s the kind of signal we were seeing prior to February 2019. 

[RayRay]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

 

 

Dumping huge wet flakes here in Everett. Video doesn’t do it justice but it’s really coming down hard.

 OOOOO MMMMM GGGG

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like it’s about 41F with some light rain. A chilly morning here, let’s see if we can keep it below normal for the day.