PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

December 2016, February 2018, and December 2021 got to about -10C though. Salem hasn't had an 850mb temp below -10C in January since 1982... 

February 2022 also got to around -10C I think. What did that early January 2017 airmass and the 2007 one get down to?

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It snowed an inch here yesterday, we had a 36/27 day and only 40/29 today. Solidly chilly for late January even up here. More moderated at the lower levels, due to what Jim mentioned, lack of continental flavor. 

42/28 and 43/35 here respectively.  Not terrible, and I expect the low will be improved upon this evening.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

February 2022 also got to around -10C I think. What did that early January 2017 airmass and the 2007 one get down to?

Oh yeah, I think you are right about last February. Another great airmass. If we only end up with something like that coming up here in the next couple of weeks I would call it a win. That airmass a few weeks earlier could have put up some 34/16 type days in the WV. 

Silver Falls got down to 14, and we got down to 15 here. 

2017 and 2007 were probably around -8/-9C. 2012 was like -9.5C too. January 2020 actually bottomed out below -9C too I believe. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

27 minutes ago, Doinko said:

This forecast from KPTV in 2008 is fun to look at. Didn't realize he used to be that aggressive.

I remember that one very well. “Arctic Blast All Week!” Of course PDX ended up never even falling below 20 and there was a warm up close to 40 somewhere in the middle of that forecast period.

Still ended up being a great period of winter weather of course, snowiest December on record at PDX. But a long period of sustained arctic air with cold lows like this will always be a white whale for me.

Edited January 22 by Cascadia_Wx

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I remember that one very well. “Arctic Blast All Week!” Of course PDX ended up never even falling below 20 and there was a warm up close to 40 somewhere in the middle of that forecast period.

Still ended up being a great period of winter weather of course, snowiest December on record at PDX. But a long period of sustained arctic air with cold lows like this will always be the white whale for me.

I will always say that month left a lot on the table. 

[LowerGarfield]

A couple of boring trace photos from 9am this morning.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will always say that month left a lot on the table. 

Definitely in the 1-13 and 26-31 periods.

Edited January 22 by Deweydog

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I remember that one very well. “Arctic Blast All Week!” Of course PDX ended up never even falling below 20 and there was a warm up close to 40 somewhere in the middle of that forecast period.

Still ended up being a great period of winter weather of course, snowiest December on record at PDX. But a long period of sustained arctic air with cold lows like this will always be a white whale for me.

January 2017 kind of got there. Only about half the snow of December 2008 probably here (13" vs I'm guessing 25" from reports) but it was on the ground for a week of sunny skies and cold lows.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wonder if PDX will be able to pull off sub-50 highs the rest of the month. I think Wednesday/Thursday will be the closest calls. Regardless 54 should remain their top end, which would be their coolest January max since 2017.

Good lord. Are they going to do it today?

 

Edited January 22 by Cascadia_Wx

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

January 2017 kind of got there. Only about half the snow of December 2008 probably here (13" vs I'm guessing 25" from reports) but it was on the ground for a week of sunny skies and cold lows.

It was definitely close. Some sub-25 highs would have done the trick, of course there wasn’t a ton of actual arctic air nearby for any of that sequence, just a bunch of low level cold, a suppressed jet, and some fantastic timing.

[TT-SEA]

Block getting pinched more on the 18Z next weekend.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Block getting pinched more on the 18Z next weekend.

Just gets plowed into before it can really establish itself that early

[Deweydog]

DON’T LOOK!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Just gets plowed into before it can really establish itself that early

More in line with what the EPS showed with that trough weakening the block before it can really establish itself.

[Deweydog]

Judah…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Just gets plowed into before it can really establish itself that early

May open up some chilly NW flow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So far I don't hate the 18z. 

[Deweydog]

Just when we get the CFS on our side…

[snow_wizard]

Pretty cool sat pic today.  You can see Douglas County (just north and east of the center of the state) in all of it's white glory and also see that a good part of Banks Lake is frozen over in spite of the warm first half of January.

 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So far I don't hate the 18z. 

Some of details go a little wonky, but all within the normal wiggle room these things usually have.

Kind of interesting that both the 12z and 18z GFS are less impressive with the initial blocking structure than the ECMWF and GEM...

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty cool sat pic today.  You can see Douglas County (just north and east of the center of the state) in all of it's white glory and also see that a good part of Banks Lake is frozen over in spite of the warm first half of January.

 

Even over in Pullman its 27 and sort of foggy with snow on the ground.   

[Phishy Wx]

^^^^^kinda looks like that here, except its 31

[RentonHill]

At this point in 2019 we were throwing in the towel. eerily similar timing...

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

I like where it’s going. 

After about day 7 or 8 we have exhausted any value the 18Z run can offer.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z looks fine to me, still pretty chilly overall. 

[RentonHill]

So many classics in the 2019 thread. 

[Deweydog]

Coast to coast cold!

 

 

in canada 

[RentonHill]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z looks fine to me, still pretty chilly overall. 

yes, it is great for you. You will get buried

[TT-SEA]

Just now, RentonHill said:

At this point in 2019 we were throwing in the towel. eerily similar timing...

Yep... 2019 is a gold mine of rugs pulls! 

But there are many other examples when a cautious approach did work out.   This time it appears to be driven by a MJO burst into phase 3... just not sure how long that support will hold.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting how deep this trough is. Low snow levels well south into California. 

[TT-SEA]

10-day snowfall total from the 18Z run... actually better for Randy than the 12Z run!  

[RentonHill]

EPS was similarly disjointed garbage on 1/24 in 2019. Thank you @ShawniganLake for being one of the few posters back then that actually saved and uploaded images instead of just the typical copypasta that doesnt show up

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

EPS was similarly disjointed garbage on 1/24 in 2019. Thank you @ShawniganLake for being one of the few posters back then that actually saved and uploaded images instead of just the typical copypasta that doesnt show up

That was just a swing and miss for sure.    I wonder if that SSW event threw the models for a loop... probably also messed up by a Nino background.   February is rarely cold in the PNW with a Nino. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the NFL has avoided the neutral site AFC Championship situation.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Incredibly deep trough into the SW. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run is completely different from the 12z though, really jumping around. This run has an extremely wet system the weekend after next. 

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z looks fine to me, still pretty chilly overall. 

Yeah....It's fine.  I'm pretty suspicious of how skinny it shows the initial blocking pattern anyway.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Hard to believe he’s coming up on 30 years.

Looks fabulous for 30.

[RentonHill]

GEFS only had two solid members on the 12z run on 1/26 in 2019. But they were also total dawgs...so not quite comparable to our four puppies from today's 12z

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Tyler Mode said:

The last time I remember us getting truly cold and clear was February 1996.

January 2017 doesn't count?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....It's fine.  I'm pretty suspicious of how skinny it shows the initial blocking pattern anyway.

Is this being driven by the MJO?  

[snow_wizard]

GEFS is 2C colder on 850s at 0z on the 28th compared to the 12z.

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS is lost. Pure and simple.

00z GEM in 5 hours

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

January 2017 doesn't count?

https://youtu.be/4_TNpsX-8-8

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Is this being driven by the MJO?  

I think it is.  We just had a strong wave emerge in region 3.  7 and 3 correspond to many of our good cold waves according to some data posted by another user a while back.

[RentonHill]

GEFS at Day 6 is best one yet for 850s

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I think it is.  We just had a strong wave emerge in region 3.  7 and 3 correspond to many of our good cold waves according to some data posted by another user a while back.

How long does the support last with an MJO wave?

 

[TacomaWx]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the NFL has avoided the neutral site AFC Championship situation.  

Can’t believe how uncompetitive the bills played today. Overall the playoffs haven’t been as exciting as last years games. The playoffs last year were special with epic games. Hopefully the cowboys 9ers game is more competitive. 
 Anyways…44/39 today with 0.03” of rain this morning. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Can’t believe how uncompetitive the bills played today. Overall the playoffs haven’t been as exciting as last years games. The playoffs last year were special with epic games. Hopefully the cowboys 9ers game is more competitive. 
 Anyways…44/39 today with 0.03” of rain this morning. 

3 fairly boring games in a row.   Not nearly as good as last weekend.   Guessing the 49ers might roll over the Cowboys too.