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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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Just now, RentonHill said:

At this point in 2019 we were throwing in the towel. eerily similar timing...

image.png.672ce4ce8c523795caf474e4da6c2c10.png

Yep... 2019 is a gold mine of rugs pulls! 

But there are many other examples when a cautious approach did work out.   This time it appears to be driven by a MJO burst into phase 3... just not sure how long that support will hold.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Interesting how deep this trough is. Low snow levels well south into California. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_swus_41.png

  • Snow 3

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

EPS was similarly disjointed garbage on 1/24 in 2019. Thank you @ShawniganLake for being one of the few posters back then that actually saved and uploaded images instead of just the typical copypasta that doesnt show up

post-887-0-90316300-1548361647.png

post-887-0-99401500-1548361634.png

That was just a swing and miss for sure.    I wonder if that SSW event threw the models for a loop... probably also messed up by a Nino background.   February is rarely cold in the PNW with a Nino. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Incredibly deep trough into the SW. 

  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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This run is completely different from the 12z though, really jumping around. This run has an extremely wet system the weekend after next. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z looks fine to me, still pretty chilly overall. 

Yeah....It's fine.  I'm pretty suspicious of how skinny it shows the initial blocking pattern anyway.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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Wow. 

gfs_z500a_namer_54.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....It's fine.  I'm pretty suspicious of how skinny it shows the initial blocking pattern anyway.

Is this being driven by the MJO?  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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GEFS is 2C colder on 850s at 0z on the 28th compared to the 12z.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Is this being driven by the MJO?  

I think it is.  We just had a strong wave emerge in region 3.  7 and 3 correspond to many of our good cold waves according to some data posted by another user a while back.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I think it is.  We just had a strong wave emerge in region 3.  7 and 3 correspond to many of our good cold waves according to some data posted by another user a while back.

How long does the support last with an MJO wave?

 

ECMF.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the NFL has avoided the neutral site AFC Championship situation.  

Can’t believe how uncompetitive the bills played today. Overall the playoffs haven’t been as exciting as last years games. The playoffs last year were special with epic games. Hopefully the cowboys 9ers game is more competitive. 
 Anyways…44/39 today with 0.03” of rain this morning. 

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2023-2024 cold season stats

Lowest Max-39

Lowest Min-27

Sub 40 Highs-1

Sub 32 Highs-0

Freezes-13

Rainfall MTD-5.33”

Rainfall (Since 10/1)- 14.22”

Total snowfall-0.0”

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

Can’t believe how uncompetitive the bills played today. Overall the playoffs haven’t been as exciting as last years games. The playoffs last year were special with epic games. Hopefully the cowboys 9ers game is more competitive. 
 Anyways…44/39 today with 0.03” of rain this morning. 

3 fairly boring games in a row.   Not nearly as good as last weekend.   Guessing the 49ers might roll over the Cowboys too. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

GFS is lost. Pure and simple.

00z GEM in 5 hours

I think the GEM has actually surpassed the GFS in many ways.  Pretty sad.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Can’t believe how uncompetitive the bills played today. Overall the playoffs haven’t been as exciting as last years games. The playoffs last year were special with epic games. Hopefully the cowboys 9ers game is more competitive. 
 Anyways…44/39 today with 0.03” of rain this morning. 

You and me both. My mom is from Buffalo, so I've always rooted for them, but this game turned out exactly as I expected. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

How long does the support last with an MJO wave?

 

ECMF.png

I am not sure on that.  The effect on the mid latitudes is fueled by convection associated with the wave which has the effect of forcing an amplification of the wave train over the Pacific.  Not sure how long that normally lasts after the wave either collapses or moves on.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

i wonder how many previously active users have died. I'm always suspicious when i see prolific posters in old threads and go to their profile and its been years since they logged in. 

They still got that dog in em.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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GEFS is certainly colder than the 12z.  Quite a bit in fact...at least for the end of this month.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 20

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

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Pulled the snow equipment out to make sure all is a go for our epic February. Hopefully it’s still coming. In the meantime…Lots of fresh green growth showing up. 

Currently 38 and cloudy. Quite the raw day. 

7CF9A091-9F45-4EC4-811D-401D699B12AA.jpeg

C3CEED79-CE58-4059-873C-B5F401708603.jpeg

D93BC034-A541-4771-A400-69EBA0125187.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

i wonder how many previously active users have died. I'm always suspicious when i see prolific posters in old threads and go to their profile and its been years since they logged in. 

I've thought about that too. Apparently Richard is still alive, but unwell. 

  • Like 3

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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A big time trough sagging south through the GOA at the end of the run. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Not really a massive change on the ensembles through hour 198. A little better here a little worse there...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Ohio is getting a good snow rn

6097AC36-5043-4652-A085-4C87F7A9D7EB.jpeg

I bet northern Ohio? I'm just a hop and a skip from the state border and cold rain in the mid-30's today. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - __.__"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 12 degrees on 11/29

Measurable snows: TBA

Thunders: 40
1/3, 1/12, 3/1, 3/24, 3/31, 4/1, 4/5, 4/14, 4/21, 4/22
4/28, 4/30, 5/7, 5/9, 5/13, 5/16, 5/30, 5/31, 6/3, 6/19
6/26, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/9, 7/13, 7/15, 7/17, 7/18, 7/21
7/24, 7/27, 7/28, 8/6, 8/7, 8/13, 8/14, 8/25, 9/6, 9/28,

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not really a massive change on the ensembles through hour 198. A little better here a little worse there...

seems better to me thru 222 on wxbell. More stable and reloading as we get further out. Not sure whats going on off the coast but maybe thats just continuous run of astoria lows coming in its showingimage.thumb.png.1f38bddf455481abcbe40f4bcadf681a.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1674410400-1674972000-1675209600-10.gif

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27 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

i wonder how many previously active users have died. I'm always suspicious when i see prolific posters in old threads and go to their profile and its been years since they logged in. 

I remember one guy faked his death and one point. And I think at one point Phil said he’d legally died but was brought back via a roadside tracheotomy or something like that.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will always say that month left a lot on the table. 

Snow falling on as many days as it did in Dec 2008 was impressive for the PDX metro, what the arctic air did or didn't do was a smaller point at the time. 

I'm sure that December made a lot of winters after it feel dull. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - __.__"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 12 degrees on 11/29

Measurable snows: TBA

Thunders: 40
1/3, 1/12, 3/1, 3/24, 3/31, 4/1, 4/5, 4/14, 4/21, 4/22
4/28, 4/30, 5/7, 5/9, 5/13, 5/16, 5/30, 5/31, 6/3, 6/19
6/26, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/9, 7/13, 7/15, 7/17, 7/18, 7/21
7/24, 7/27, 7/28, 8/6, 8/7, 8/13, 8/14, 8/25, 9/6, 9/28,

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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850s are slightly improved on the 18z GEFS.

78CEDE94-CEFB-43B6-B2B0-4548DF8980A9.png

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0”

Max Snow Depth - 0”

Coldest High Temp - 36F (Nov 29)

Coldest Low Temp - 25F (Nov 26 & Nov 29)

Number of Freezes - 20

Sub-40 highs - 1

Highs 32 or lower - 0

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Only hit 40 today. Not bad. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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22 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Im envisioning something like this, including the flying baby and young Tim wearing the A-Rod jersey.

 

That poor little boy... heartbreaking.

And did those people know what a beautiful spring lay ahead?  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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29 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I remember one guy faked his death and one point. And I think at one point Phil said he’d legally died but was brought back via a roadside tracheotomy or something like that.

Yeah, that was during the December 2008 madness, too I believe. 

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A forum for the end of the world.

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