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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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  • Longtimer
44 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wonder if PDX will be able to pull off sub-50 highs the rest of the month. I think Wednesday/Thursday will be the closest calls. Regardless 54 should remain their top end, which would be their coolest January max since 2017.

20-31st

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I am not trolling.  The EPS does not show much in the 7-10 day period either.   

That is the bottom line that I was referring to as well.  The stuff beyond day 10 is a complete unknown at this point anyway IMO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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  • Staff
1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Tim is on fire today!

I live and die by the EPS!

But I will just go back to saying it definitely coming.   Because it probably is.  

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is the bottom line that I was referring to as well.  The stuff beyond day 10 is a complete unknown at this point anyway IMO.

Unless the stuff we likey is beyond 10 days, of course.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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CFS is on board too.  I'm not joking about that either.  I've seen the CFS do pretty well when these things get into the believable range.  It's a "coarser" model and sees things a bit differently than the regular operational models.  When it agrees with the operational models it's a good sign.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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  • Longtimer
4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I live and die by the EPS!

But I will just go back to saying it definitely coming.   Because it probably is.  

Say whatever you want, it just seems like you make a conscious effort to counter balance Jim, but maybe its sub-conscious. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Staff
3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Say whatever you want, it just seems like you make a conscious effort to counter balance Jim, but maybe its sub-conscious. 

Maybe in general... but Jim has been very reasonable with this upcoming situation.   At least in my opinion.   Taking a wait and see approach without spiking the ball.    Probably the best sign of all that something big is coming!  

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Snowing in Buffalo for Bengals-Bills on CBS.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 29 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.25" (graupel)
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (mostly graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

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  • Longtimer
Just now, TT-SEA said:

Maybe in general... but Jim has been very reasonable with this upcoming situation.   At least in my opinion.   Taking a wait and see approach without spiking the ball.   

True. I think there is good potential with this. Things turned out well from a cold perspective in December, and I doubt we see those kind of sub-freezing highs. On the other hand, in some ways I think this upcoming period has better potential for cold/snow regionally. The limits of the December event were apparent pretty early on, especially for folks down here. Also the major jet extension which came into focus, showed it would not have legs. On the other hand, lets not expect 6 weeks of upper level support like we saw in 2019. But even what the GFS operational showed long range would be chilly at the surface, even as we fight expanding sun angles. I think we get a few bites at the apple in February, but as the month goes along elevation becomes more of a factor. This late January/early February window is great timing for the lowlands, and I think it still could turn out well. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Staff
Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

True. I think there is good potential with this. Things turned out well from a cold perspective in December, and I doubt we see those kind of sub-freezing highs. On the other hand, in some ways I think this upcoming period has better potential for cold/snow regionally. The limits of the December event were apparent pretty early on, especially for folks down here. Also the major jet extension which came into focus, showed it would not have legs. On the other hand, lets not expect 6 weeks of upper level support like we saw in 2019. But even what the GFS operational showed long range would be chilly at the surface, even as we fight expanding sun angles. I think we get a few bites at the apple in February, but as the month goes along elevation becomes more of a factor. This late January/early February window is great timing for the lowlands, and I think it still could turn out well. 

1916 tells us early February can be epic.

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Snowing in Buffalo for Bengals-Bills on CBS.

Chiefs are going to have a tough time next week with the Bengals. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Snowing in Buffalo for Bengals-Bills on CBS.

That place has had enough snow.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Winter

Snowfall - 16.1" (biggest storm 4.8" March 12th)
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"
Snow days: 10
First freeze: Nov 3rd

Other 2022 Stats

Thunders: 53 (as of 12/3)
Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 4
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1
Hailstorms: 1 (1/2" on 10/12)
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

'22-'23 Winter

Snowfall - 0.50"
First freeze: Oct 9th
Measurable snows: 1
Coldest low: -3 (12/23)

Thunders
1/3, 1/12

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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  • Longtimer
Just now, TT-SEA said:

1916 tells us early February can be epic.

Absolutely. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

CFS is on board for a shot of cold air early next week. 

 

 

prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png

CFS clips us with the cold airmass later in the week. I have noticed a few days ago most models sent the first shot of cold air east, and the 2nd one was further west, now that trend has flipped. 

prateptype_cat-imp.conus.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

True. I think there is good potential with this. Things turned out well from a cold perspective in December, and I doubt we see those kind of sub-freezing highs. On the other hand, in some ways I think this upcoming period has better potential for cold/snow regionally. The limits of the December event were apparent pretty early on, especially for folks down here. Also the major jet extension which came into focus, showed it would not have legs. On the other hand, lets not expect 6 weeks of upper level support like we saw in 2019. But even what the GFS operational showed long range would be chilly at the surface, even as we fight expanding sun angles. I think we get a few bites at the apple in February, but as the month goes along elevation becomes more of a factor. This late January/early February window is great timing for the lowlands, and I think it still could turn out well. 

Yeah, I don't think even clown range GFS maps showed much snow at all for the Willamette Valley in December.

 

I don't know for sure, but I think  the pattern kind of looks like something that'll allow for systems undercutting the ridge for an overrunning event at the end of the Euro

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  • Longtimer

If we want a long cold/chilly period, a solution like what the GFS showed wouldn't be bad. I think the pattern probably resets the 2nd week of February, and then things cool off again after that. Just throwing stuff at the wall right now, but that's what I'm thinking. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Very dense fog overnight + single digit lows = a beautiful wintry landscape.

IMG_20230122_130306.jpg

IMG_20230122_130352.png

IMG_20230122_130316.jpg

IMG_20230122_130311.jpg

These have gotta be some of the best photos I've ever seen on this forum. Really beautiful. Nice job

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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Anyone else loving the snow in Buffalo?

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 9.3 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 2.20 inches (12/19/22 & 12/20/22)

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: 2.0 on 12/23/22

Days with trace or more snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5), 12/14/22 (1.6), 12/18/22 (T), 12/19/22 (2.10), 12/20/22 (.10), 12/23/22 (2.0), 01/03/2023 (T), 1/22/23 (T)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 0F (12/21/2022)

Last sub freezing high: 12/23/22 (possibly 12/24/22)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location  (I've also had a White Christmas in 2017 when I lived in Stanwood and a White Christmas at a hotel in Moscow, ID in 2020). 

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2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Anyone else loving the snow in Buffalo?

The Bengals sure are!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 29 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.25" (graupel)
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (mostly graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

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  • Staff
1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The Bengals sure are!

So far... its looking like another game that is decided early.    Would be the 3rd dud of the weekend if this holds.  

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  • Longtimer

CFS monthly for February. 

cfs-mon_01_T2ma_namer_1.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

CFS just shows shot after shot of arctic air into the center of the country through February. Wouldn't take much for us to score multiple times. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Funny haha thing about February 2014 is that up until the 5th it was pretty much set on being a DRY blast from start to finish.

It was a snowy Birthday party for sure! Well, the party itself wasn't outside, but damn that would have been far better.

00z NAM in 5 hours 4 minutes (ridge merger is almost within NAM range now!)

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  • Longtimer

Beautiful arctic blast at the end of the 12z CFS. 

prateptype_cat-met.na.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Nice summary of the event
Feb 2014 Snow/Ice Wrapup | FOX 12 Weather Blog (archive.org)

Those NWS snow totals are not fully accurate though, Hillsboro definitely had more than 6" of snow.

Reading the comments it looks like I had a total of 8.5" from the event. The 23/13 day was more impressive than the snow up here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I love all of you. We weather nerds are generally hard for society to tolerate and must stick together.

Absolutely. The internet can bring out the worst in us sometimes, but there is not a person in here I truly wish ill upon, other than maybe sometimes hoping it doesn't snow at their house. ;)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Looking at 2014, one of its assets was the fact it was a rather disjointed pattern overall. It made for what verified as a perfected balance of a backdoor blast thanks to the elongated PV lobe but the blocking was fragmented, allowing for the undercut energy and eventual cyclogenesis around Vancouver Island. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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18 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Ya. During that time it snowed around 32” imby. Incredible storm. 

In Cannon Beach, we hosted a mens group from Corvallis or Albany and they all left really right away after breakfast at 8am or so in order to get ahead of it. Usually it was breakfast then the groups wouldn't leave until 11 or noon. That was the storm that made me hate snow for a few years since we got stuck in Seaside, stayed with a stranger and it postponed my sister's visit from Lewis and Clark college to visit. But I like snow now. In fairness, that whole week was then dead quiet and we had no work so lots of time to play in the snow and walk on a snowy beach.

It was pretty incredible how Portland shutdown with that storm.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 9.3 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 2.20 inches (12/19/22 & 12/20/22)

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: 2.0 on 12/23/22

Days with trace or more snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5), 12/14/22 (1.6), 12/18/22 (T), 12/19/22 (2.10), 12/20/22 (.10), 12/23/22 (2.0), 01/03/2023 (T), 1/22/23 (T)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 0F (12/21/2022)

Last sub freezing high: 12/23/22 (possibly 12/24/22)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location  (I've also had a White Christmas in 2017 when I lived in Stanwood and a White Christmas at a hotel in Moscow, ID in 2020). 

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