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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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7 hours ago, Phil said:

It’s early enough that things can change, but this isn’t the sort of VP signature you’d expect from a decaying La Niña. Quite the opposite, in fact.

Maybe we go the 2000/01-2002/03 route, and the transition to El Niño is a long, slow process? Based on the solar cycle/IPWP relationship, you wouldn’t expect the next IPWP extension for another ~ 2 years at least, so that may also argue for a slower and/or dampened transition into +ENSO & associated WP extension.

BDDA6207-556A-4865-B894-AA127FE40333.png

It would be something else if this Nina went another season.  I have to say there is no clear indication it's going to end soon.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Just west of the West Hills. We get an enhanced east wind downsloping off of them. Makes for some very fun snowstorms!
image.png.6adba0ba8edb40fc78e6d78579105bd5.png

That area the ECMWF only shows near 40 for gusts.  Beware it isn't perfect though.  For some reason the model doesn't do well for North Bend up this way.  It is often low with that location.  For my area it usually does very well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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48 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This forum is a straight up ghost town. 

 

18 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Eye of the storm.

I think I saw as little as 10 registered members on last night or the night before for the 0z run. Probably the fewest I’ve seen in a while but it does have that feel calm before the storm kinda feel. Nothing worthy to track in the meantime. 

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That storm is just tearing it up over the NE Pacific right now.  The ECMWF shows this is basically a cat 1 hurricane for winds.

wxloop ir4km 12 (washington.edu)

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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57 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What does the Euro show for here? The WRF-GFS is showing 50mph+ gusts for my location.

I'd take the EURO predictions for the metro with a grain of salt-- usually underdoes gusts by a fair margin. In September 2020 for example-- model output was at face value for gusts in the mid to low 30s for PDX. We know what actually panned out...

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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42F out there with the occasional shower.

My wife had to wake me up from an epileptic episode when she got home from work. Not sure how long I was out for.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Currently 27F outside. A bit cool.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If you don’t want it to torch hard on Friday, the latest Goofus is your friend. But then you’re friends with Goofus.

gfs-deterministic-or_wa-t2m_f_max6-3049600(1).thumb.png.905ac8ae724d58b8d725136a973ca408.png

Gfs seems to bring more moisture in. Seems pretty torchy later next week though. Either way the torch is going to happen at some point in the next 10 days. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wet

 

D96E5538-44AB-427D-AA86-8052BBDEB7E7.png

Praise Allah. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Is this going to be a bad thing for this year's Napa crop? This much of a shock to them?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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I've never seen this much rain modeled in a 384 hr map for the Bay Area

1.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Is this going to be a bad thing for this year's Napa crop? This much of a shock to them?

I doubt it will affect many vineyards much. The vines are dormant this time of year. Biggest threat would be flood damage to the lower-lying vineyards.

 

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I've never seen this much rain modeled in a 384 hr map for the Bay Area

1.png

I lived in the Bay Area briefly. The purple zones tend to be high-rainfall areas as it is. If you go there, you see mostly redwood forests, and big trees don’t grow on sunshine alone. And the storms in California tend to feature harder, heavier rain than our storms do (probably as a result of the warmer temperatures). Those purple areas get storms that dump 3–5" in one event most years, sometimes multiple such storms per season.

Still a lot of rain. There will be flooding and landslides.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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23 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I've never seen this much rain modeled in a 384 hr map for the Bay Area

1.png

What a blessing that would be for them. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I don't know what to think anymore. Models have gone crazy. I hope I can avoid property damage.

It definitely could be bad, but keep in mind people are posting 300+ hour maps. Not only highly inaccurate, but that's precip spread over a 2 week period.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It definitely could be bad, but keep in mind people are posting 300+ hour maps. Not only highly inaccurate, but that's precip spread over a 2 week period.

That being said, both the GFS and CMC definitely juiced things up over the next 7 days. This would be apocalyptic, especially after all the rain that comes before.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_swus_24.png

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A forum for the end of the world.

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21 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I mean, there first serious system hasn't even started yet.

If anything I’d say they already started…. 3 days ago and that barely put a dent in the drought situation down there. But what’s being forecast is some serious drought busting rain. 
 

 

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17 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Spent the day in Brian's neck of the woods. Gorgeous out in Leavenworth currently and the drive down Tumwater canyon is just...special when there's feet of snow along the Wenatchee River. 

I'd live there in a heartbeat if I could20230102_160808.thumb.jpg.369bf8357fca8ad86348ed487da0ac61.jpg20230102_160324.thumb.jpg.bfb283341e734dfb04186043c273c296.jpg

No doubt.  Either Cle Elum, somewhere around Leavenworth, Winthrop.  Many good possibilities over there.  The town of Leavenworth itself though would be awfully touristy.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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41 minutes ago, Cloud said:

If anything I’d say they already started…. 3 days ago and that barely put a dent in the drought situation down there. But what’s being forecast is some serious drought busting rain. 
 

 

A lot of 19th century action in that list.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Nice improvement on the GEFS tonight.  Lower PNA, lower 850s, and a stronger GOA ridge signal.  The final part of this month is very much in play.

1672790400-YZ38ctDYEawgrb2.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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