PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[snow_wizard]

Just realized the GEM is the 12z run.  Gorgeous run though.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GEM is KOLD.

I can't find the 0z GEM

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GEM is KOLD.

What does it look like compared to the 12z? It isn't loading on Pivotal for me

[TacomaWx]

34 here…midnight low potential on this model riding Friday night 

[snow_wizard]

Kind of nice to be seeing good model runs when we are already in a below normal temps.  

That cold shot tomorrow night looks pretty decent in its own right.  Currently 33 here.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What does it look like compared to the 12z? It isn't loading on Pivotal for me

I was looking at the 12z.  Not seeing any sign of the 0z run yet.

[Anti Marine Layer]

17 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Better than sex

Far out dude 

[BLI snowman]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Any word on the GEM?

Izcold

[SouthHillFrosty]

Still snowing at hour 384 

[snow_wizard]

Just like that.  Six consecutive highs below 50 and a good string of sub 40 mins.  Top drawer stuff by recent January standards. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Still snowing at hour 384 

I've been dying to see ridiculously snowy run again!

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was looking at the 12z.  Not seeing any sign of the 0z run yet.

[snow_wizard]

GEFS control run plunges at the end of the month, and the mean has a much sharper northerly flow than previous runs.

[SnowWillarrive]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of nice to be seeing good model runs when we are already in a below normal temps.  

That cold shot tomorrow night looks pretty decent in its own right.  Currently 33 here.

I want to see flakes flying tomorrow 

[MikeInEverett]

Taking a weekend trip in the town of Roslyn just west of Cle Elum. Expecting a pretty good snowstorm tomorrow, should be a super pretty wintery scene. Snow on the ground here from snow earlier in the week and 25F currently.

[Front Ranger]

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Doesn't really strike me as a ZR look to the pattern.  I could be wrong or that could change though.

330 hr freezing rain maps never change.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Taking a weekend trip in the town of Roslyn just west of Cle Elum. Expecting a pretty good snowstorm tomorrow, should be a super pretty wintery scene. Snow on the ground here from snow earlier in the week and 25F currently.

For sure.  That trough coming in is pretty cold.  Should be some low snow levels even over here.

[Front Ranger]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I was looking at the 12z.  Not seeing any sign of the 0z run yet.

12z was late today too. Wake up, Canadia.

[ShawniganLake]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

12z was late today too. Wake up, Canadia.

It’s out to hour 144 on the government site. But it’s only ever available up to hr144 on that site. 

[snow_wizard]

If these models are right it's conceivable we could be in solidly cold weather before the month is over.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

330 hr freezing rain maps never change.

This is not true.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For sure.  That trough coming in is pretty cold.  Should be some low snow levels even over here.

I’m actually more interested in tomorrow right now…should be pretty interesting randy and Tim will probably get some snow. I think there will probably be some flakes but really don’t see this accumulating most places. 

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS certainly has a continental flavor for week 2.

[Deweydog]

The 12z GEM still looks VERY cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 10

[Deweydog]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS Day 10

January.

[Requiem]

I am ON BOARD for tomorrow's phreezing phog

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[SouthHillFrosty]

Love to see it

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Money.

I swear you work for Costco (I'm a big fan of the place, too).

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

I swear you work for Costco (I'm a big fan of the place, too).

He’s a lawyer for Costco…and Carl’s Jr. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

I swear you work for Costco (I'm a big fan of the place, too).

Proud alum 1996-1999!

I pushed carts in the snow on 1/11/98!

[Doinko]

4 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

That was a great winter for NW OR and SW WA. Very gorge-centric with the Columbia Basin staying locked in the cold through much of the season and a great tap for the Portland area. A good example of the upper range of our potential in a season without a major upper level event.

The Portland metro had four different snowstorms in January, first a wet dump with an anafront on the 8th, and then two modest overrunning events on the 10th and 14th in the low level gorge outflow that hung around afterwards. There was really good low level cold air advection drawn in through the gorge ahead of the big storm on the 18th-19th, but it was extremely borderline up top. Thicknesses were around 530 for NW OR. There was a really big high pressure center in the Rockies but no significant arctic airmass to work with, so working a major snowstorm out of it was pretty remarkable.

https://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?lang=en&mod=ncep&area=na&yyyy=1960&mm=01&dd=19&run=12

That season also bookended by two historic blocking episodes. First with a big North American airmass in mid November 1959 which was actually fairly historic for so early in the season, but was overshadowed by its timing in the record books and coinciding with the 1955 event. SEA had a subfreezing afternoon high with the arctic front on the 15th, and BLI had a daytime high of 23.

Then the blocking episode from February 20 to March 15, 1960 was probably among the most extreme on record for North America. We cashed in during the early stage of it of course, first with a backdoor clipping in late February and then regionally with the really massive airmass in early March. Whereas the PNW modified fairly soon after the big overrunning storm on the 3rd, the East had one of its snowiest and most anomalous stretches on record. For example, in Lexington, KY that month was a full 5F colder than any other March back to 1888. Kind of was their mini-equivalent to January 1950.

Thank you for all of this information! Kind of similar to January 2017 which had a major snowstorm without a big airmass (but more widespread)?

I'm surprised at how good this winter was looking at it, I haven't heard much about it at all on this forum.

[SouthHillFrosty]

The ensembles are double so far of last run!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Requiem]

What's tonight's night shift music soundin' like?

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

What's tonight's night shift music soundin' like?

 

[lowlandsnow]

Why has the 00z GEM not run yet?