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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Maybe I’m crazy, but the GFS/GEFS look like they’re in lock step through six days.

The GEFS is colder on 850s.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Doesn't carve a notch out of the ridge over Alaska like GFS does. Could still go bad.1675004400-rtNQQFHI0Kw.png1674982800-PUaxZjs02ms.png

For whatever it’s worth, you’ll almost never see a shortwave feature like that depicted on a mean beyond about 72 hours or so. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:
00z GEFS Day 6.5 850s (4-run trend)
trend-gefsens-2023012300-f156.850tw-mean.us_nw.gif

If that continues for a few more runs it will be REALLY cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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Mean is -7 on the GEFS at 0z on the 30th compared to -5 on the 18z.  Noice!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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Interesting that an arctic blast seems like a possibility coming up…figured we would be seeing something like 2018 instead of 2014. Lot of time for details to change though it’ll be fun to see what happens for better or worse. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.88”

Wet season rainfall-16.37”

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  • Longtimer

That entire GFS run is a total mess. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That entire GFS run is a total mess. 

It almost turns into gibberish that will obviously not verify.  They ruined that model on the last two upgrades.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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  • Longtimer

Massive Euro and CFS runs coming up. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Great to see improvements so far with the models tonight other than the lost GFS. I have a feeling the Euro and EPS will improve.

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2022-2023 Winter Stats

Total Snowfall - 14.25”

Max Snow Depth - 6”

Coldest High Temp - 23F

Coldest Low Temp - 11F

Number of Freezes - 43

Sub-40 highs - 16

Highs 32 or lower - 3

 

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Massive Euro and CFS runs coming up. 

The CFS has been pretty darn good today, but it might get better.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Interesting that an arctic blast seems like a possibility coming up…figured we would be seeing something like 2018 instead of 2014. Lot of time for details to change though it’ll be fun to see what happens for better or worse. 

Nice to have a shot at another good event after what we've already had.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Nice to have a shot at another good event after what we've already had.

Hopefully it ends up working out ok. Most of us on the forum myself included have been thinking something good would come later in winter…definitely possible. I think there will be a good event out of this but obviously no clue if it is more of an arctic event or snowy. Maybe both but just too early to get excited. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.88”

Wet season rainfall-16.37”

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The control on the extended GEFS shows cold almost through all of Feb.

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  • Shivering 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

Hopefully it ends up working out ok. Most of us on the forum myself included have been thinking something good would come later in winter…definitely possible. I think there will be a good event out of this but obviously no clue if it is more of an arctic event or snowy. Maybe both but just too early to get excited. 

I'm already happy just to be seeing below normal temps the last several days, and very likely for days to come.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm already happy just to be seeing below normal temps the last several days, and very likely for days to come.

Yeah it’s nice the real torching is on hold for awhile either way most likely. This would be a nice bonus on top of what’s already been a very solid winter. 

  • Like 1

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.88”

Wet season rainfall-16.37”

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850s bottom out at -7.4 on this GEFS run.  That's getting pretty real.

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  • Shivering 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

31.7

32.0 here and falling at a decent clip still.  I'm liking this.

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  • Shivering 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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image.thumb.png.2eb8cb3c4a7ab9d861844074da9d628c.png

 

The Colliding Spiral Galaxies of Arp 274 2023 January 23
Image Credit: NASA, ESA, Hubble; Processing & Copyright: Mehmet Hakan Özsaraç

Explanation: Two galaxies are squaring off in Virgo and here are the latest pictures. When two galaxies collide, the stars that compose them usually do not. This is because galaxies are mostly empty space and, however bright, stars only take up only a small fraction of that space. But during the collision, one galaxy can rip the other apart gravitationally, and dust and gas common to both galaxies does collide. If the two galaxies merge, black holes that likely resided in each galaxy center may eventually merge. Because the distances are so large, the whole thing takes place in slow motion -- over hundreds of millions of years. Besides the two large spiral galaxies, a smaller third galaxy is visible on the far left of the featured image of Arp 274, also known as NGC 5679. Arp 274 spans about 200,000 light years across and lies about 400 million light years away toward the constellation of Virgo.

 

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ECMWF already looking better than the GFS and little changed form it's 12z run.

  • Like 5

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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Interesting.  What small changes there are seem to be in the right direction (away from the look of the GFS).

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

ECMWF already looking better than the GFS and little changed form it's 12z run.

Don't jinx it! But yes, I'd agree

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

HR 78 Ridge merger ECMWF hi-res, GEM, GFS

models-2023012300-f078.500h_anom.na.gif

The GFS just botches that ridge merger compared to the other two models.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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It's quite remarkable how similar the GEM and ECMWF are at day 4 compared to the GFS.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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I'm seeing signs in the surface pressure progs this run could be remarkable.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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