PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Deweydog]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Wasn't that a quick hitter in an otherwise warm month?    This seems more persistent.

The second shortwave is pretty similar as progged by the international camp. A lot weaker, but seems to evolve rapidly and skips the whole persistent southerly flow hangups we routinely get down here. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Would be funny to have our first legit major upper level event in January in decades come in the waning hours of the 31st. 

Should it happen, I fully expect us to switch to Arctic conditions just after midnight on the 1. There's actually a contract that has somehow been signed to prevent January snowfall or Arctic conditions in this location per the terms of the 2-25-19 deal.

[Phil]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Would be funny to have our first legit major upper level event in January in decades come in the waning hours of the 31st. 

1989 has been the best strat analog since late December. Big W1 breakdown late January 1989, QBO full westerly, healthy La Niña, heading into solar maximum.

[ShawniganLake]

Nice euro run. Not as cold as we saw some of them back in December.  
 

maybe tiger gets another subfreezing high. 
 

 

[RentonHill]

EPS day 6

vs 12z

[Meatyorologist]

It doesn't even deserve to be dignified with a response. Such a garbage post. Beneath than the lint in my dryer. About as valuable as an invasive species of tick.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

It doesn't even deserve to be dignified with a response. Such a garbage post. Beneath than the lint in my dryer. About as valuable as an invasive species of tick.

What doesn't?

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It doesn't even deserve to be dignified with a response. Such a garbage post. Beneath than the lint in my dryer. About as valuable as an invasive species of tick.

Where is this post? I wanna read it.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Should it happen, I fully expect us to switch to Arctic conditions just after midnight on the 1. There's actually a contract that has somehow been signed to prevent January snowfall or Arctic conditions in this location per the terms of the 2-25-19 deal.

Even seeing a modeled blast at this point makes this January a major win by 21st century standards! Beats probably 75% of them.

[RentonHill]

EPS day 7 vs 12z

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Anything’s possible lol.

Best vibes are coming from the Hadley Cell/ML low pass. Now *much* improved over 2020-22. Looks like the 4CH could be quite a bit weaker this year.

The implications of a weaker 4CH could mean some SAD TEARS this summer from some, though they might get lost in sheets of rain

[WeatherGeek2022]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good Lord!

10 days out still

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

10 days out still

Cold air arrives Day 6 to 6.5

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

It doesn't even deserve to be dignified with a response. Such a garbage post. Beneath than the lint in my dryer. About as valuable as an invasive species of tick.

Wow.    It was an honest question though... the last wet summer we had was during a Nino.    A shake up might be good.

[RentonHill]

EPS day 8 vs 12z

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

The implications of a weaker 4CH could mean some SAD TEARS this summer from some, though they might get lost in sheets of rain

[WeatherGeek2022]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Cold air arrives Day 6 to 6.5

possibility there we get colder than in December.

 

this is nuts 

[Phil]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

The implications of a weaker 4CH could mean some SAD TEARS this summer from some, though they might get lost in sheets of rain

Lol. It helps but doesn’t preclude a warm/hot summer. Still doable.  

But at least the entire west won’t be on fire this year (hopefully).

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The implications of a weaker 4CH could mean some SAD TEARS this summer from some, though they might get lost in sheets of rain

I would gladly take a 2019 summer over another summer/fall like 2022.  

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

10 days out still

As already mentioned, the pattern is already well in place by day 6. But regardless, 10 days out on the Euro is hardly worthless.

[SnowWillarrive]

19 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Tonga

January 2023 was known as the beginning of the great mini ice age lasting 300 years. 

 

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

1989 has been the best strat analog since late December. Big W1 breakdown late January 1989, QBO full westerly, healthy La Niña, heading into solar maximum.

Unfortunately we don't have a big reservoir of -50 to -70F temps in AK to tap into this go around  Probably due to the lack of Aqua Net. 

[Slushy Inch]

11 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

500mb can't get much better than that I'll agree with you there.

Uh could use better 500mb pattern at least for Seattle snow. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z CMCE Day 8!

[SpaceRace22]

Maybe this is just wishful thinking, but it kind of looks like the mother of all reloads is coming on the last few frames of the Euro.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

EPS day 8 vs 12z

 

The increase in snow and cold confidence is palpable.

[RentonHill]

EPS day 9

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Phil said:

Lol. It helps but doesn’t preclude a warm/hot summer. Still doable.  

But at least the entire west won’t be on fire this year (hopefully).

Fully expect to reach to at least Von Miller's jersey number of 90Fs.

[Phil]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Unfortunately we don't have a big reservoir of -50 to -70F temps in AK to tap into this go around  Probably due to the lack of Aqua Net. 

Haha. Yeah that cold is over in Putin territory this year.

Goes to show how complicated analogs can be. Rarely can you take a year and just run with it.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

EPS day 9

 

Could use a shift west. But I'll take it for now.

[RentonHill]

EPS day 10

 

[Deweydog]

Just so y’all know… 1/22/89 was also Sunday.

Should be interesting to see how that analog holds up as the end of the month approaches…

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow.    It was an honest question though... the last wet summer we had was during a Nino.    A shake up might be good.

I think you and I both know we will all roast and there is just about nothing we can do about it. Who knows though. Summer 2022 marked the tenth summer of the 2013-22 hot stretch. Maybe we'll call it an even ten and be done with it.

But after last summer, with how irredeemably hot it became despite the intense -ENSO and cold Spring preceding it, I have doubts it's possible anymore.

[snow_wizard]

Very obvious something has really changed tonight.

[Gradient Keeper]

Now that the ridge merger occurs just after Day 3 the models are getting a better handle on things. The sooner we achieve that the quicker we'll get into the cold pattern, which to me looks like at least a ~30% chance now for arctic air.

6z NAM in 12 minutes

[Cold Snap]

Euro is looking amazing! This could really be something!

[RentonHill]

EPS day 11

 

[Gradient Keeper]

This could evolve into a very snowy pattern.

[RentonHill]

Day 12

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Very obvious something has really changed tonight.

Lemme guess!

Models are showing cold and snow when earlier this month they were not? 

[RentonHill]

Day 13

[Phil]

41 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Tonga

Speaking of Tonga, the stratosphere is still loaded with H2O. Crazy stuff. At least we’ll get to test whether the climate catastrophists are correct with their doomsday H2O feedback loop.  

Well…technically this is stratospheric H2O, where as the apocalyptic climate scenarios arise through H2O/lapse rate feedback in the upper troposphere. So it’s not actually testing that theory in its entirety.

But there still should be a statistically significant radiative forcing from the added H2O. We’ll see!

[RentonHill]

Day 14

[Gradient Keeper]

Exhaustion. No Night Shift 6z GFS for me. Have a good night!

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

[RentonHill]

Day 15

[SpaceRace22]

Not sure if this was posted already, but it's worth noting that tonight's 00z GFS ensemble has a pretty significant amount of extremely snowy members for both Portland and Seattle. This is a dramatic increase from last nights 00z and today's 12z. I suspect there will finally be some solid GFS runs tomorrow.

 

[snow_wizard]

JMA, ICON, CFS ensemble, and CFS control are all cold.  The GFS is the only outlier.

[Cold Snap]

Managed to clock in a freeze for the day yesterday right before midnight. Warmed back up to 33.4 now.

[SpaceRace22]

00z ECMWF Ensemble snow totals. I'll take member #40, please.