PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Icon is rock solid. 

Yeah even at Day 7.5 (end of run) looks poised for a major reload.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yeah even at Day 7.5 (end of run) looks poised for a major reload.

The coveted double blast. 

[jakerepp]

Sorry to interrupt here but, I'm sorry, what?

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5.5 here we go!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5.5 850s

[jakerepp]

Looks like some goodies might be headed that way soon? Looks like a lot of activity since I last checked in here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still 31F with some freezing fog.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (4-run trend) Backdoor cold. A better run, but not quite on par with the ECMWF, GEM.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5.5 the GFS still wants to break the ridge down fairly quickly as opposed to ECMWF, GEM.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Speaking of the GEM. Day 5.5

[FroYoBro]

I like this frame of the 12z GFS. 

Edited January 23 by FroYoBro

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM Day 6.5

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS Day 3 (4-run trend)

[Doinko]

Another backdoor blast after the first one on the GEM

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

GEM quite close to a massive blast. ugh! almost

[Gradient Keeper]

Back to the GFS(for reasons unknown) Day 10!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Cascadia_Wx]

32 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Still 31F with some freezing fog.

37 and cloudy here. Y’all have been lucky to get freezes lately.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS Day 4.5 (4-run trend)

[TT-SEA]

It was cloudy overnight here... but now clearing and the sun is out.     36 degrees.

[Phil]

Omg I had 10 minutes of rain/snow mix this AM. Can I count that as a trace???? #TearsInMyEyes

[Phishy Wx]

thinking this event (first part, first week of Feb) will best or tie/come very close to the December event on cold.  I also think it will moderate quicker and pivot to a snowy/wet period the week into 2/6.  Also look for a cold and/or snow reload the week of 2/13 when I'm in FL for my company's annual sales meeting.   You're welcome.  I don't accept ham as a thank you gesture.

[TT-SEA]

Nary a cloud in the sky now...

[RentonHill]

lots of dawgs (<-10) on GEFS. a few beasts (<-15). Mean bottoms out at -8.3 vs -7.9 on 12z vs 6z

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, RentonHill said:

lots of dawgs (<-10) on GEFS. a few beasts (<-15). Mean bottoms out at -8.3 vs -7.9 on 12z vs 6z

 

Ensemble mean at -7°C or below is what always catches my eye. That’s where things start getting interesting at the surface.

[ShawniganLake]

28 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Oh wow. Amazing GFS run

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Oh wow. Amazing GFS run

Indeed, although something tells me that Oregon posters might for some reason disagree with that sentiment.

[RentonHill]

nice CB improvements on GEFS @Gradient Keeper

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

nice CB improvements on GEFS @Gradient Keeper

Yep!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think the ICON is on the right track. Maybe not even cold enuff?!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Indeed, although something tells me that Oregon posters might for some reason disagree with that sentiment.

And it has to go through a very convoluted (and initially much worse) progression to get to that solution by day 11.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Colder runs ahead! MBG

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS Day 7.5 (4-run trend)

[SouthHillFrosty]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Indeed, although something tells me that Oregon posters might for some reason disagree with that sentiment.

Looks great Seattle north again. We have seen this story before

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

lots of dawgs (<-10) on GEFS. a few beasts (<-15). Mean bottoms out at -8.3 vs -7.9 on 12z vs 6z

 

OMG look at them beasts!

[ShawniganLake]

18 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Indeed, although something tells me that Oregon posters might for some reason disagree with that sentiment.

They get a nice backdoor blast through the gorge with some flurries.  That initial cold Shot isn’t looking great for Fraser outflow. Too much easterly component.  And then we get a big snowstorm. Seems like a compromise at least.  I’m sure the euro will be different anyways. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like more ensemble improvement. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

15 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks great Seattle north again. We have seen this story before

A few days ago, the Willamette Valley was being modelled to get the goods and MBY was getting left high and dry. I expect more flip-flopping, as usual. The main takeaway is that snow seems to be getting modelled at least somewhere in the lowlands each run.

[Phil]

Yeah, January has sucked everywhere. The real cold has been locked up in Asia since Christmas.

 

[Phishy Wx]

in it to win it.  it's on

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have a feeling the long range (240 hours+ is still in flux and we could see some explosive improvement there in the next few days. 

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like more ensemble improvement. 

GEFS bottoms out at -9c for Vancouver. Definitely trending cooler.  500mb pattern looks to have an improved ridge over Alaska next week and possibly a wetter pattern later next week

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One other piece that is nagging at me is we are probably going to see a regionally wet pattern develop sometime in the next 3-4 weeks.

[ShawniganLake]

Coast to coast  

 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS Day 10+ HUGE improvement with persistent cold air in the Gorge. It is becoming snowy too.