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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yeah even at Day 7.5 (end of run) looks poised for a major reload.

The coveted double blast. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Sorry to interrupt here but, I'm sorry, what?

 

 

Screenshot_20230123_090237_Twitter.jpg

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Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 90.7 (some data missing)

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 13

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 6

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.9''

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Looks like some goodies might be headed that way soon? Looks like a lot of activity since I last checked in here.

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Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 90.7 (some data missing)

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 13

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 6

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.9''

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Still 31F with some freezing fog.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 41F (Nov 21, 2023)
  • Coldest low: 22F (Nov 25, 2023)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Nov 29, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 30, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F) *1 sub-freezing high since Jan 14, 2017 (fewest on record during 6 year span)*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Omg I had 10 minutes of rain/snow mix this AM. Can I count that as a trace???? 😭 #TearsInMyEyes

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thinking this event (first part, first week of Feb) will best or tie/come very close to the December event on cold.  I also think it will moderate quicker and pivot to a snowy/wet period the week into 2/6.  Also look for a cold and/or snow reload the week of 2/13 when I'm in FL for my company's annual sales meeting.   You're welcome.  I don't accept ham as a thank you gesture.

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I think the ICON is on the right track. Maybe not even cold enuff?!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Indeed, although something tells me that Oregon posters might for some reason disagree with that sentiment. 😆

And it has to go through a very convoluted (and initially much worse) progression to get to that solution by day 11.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Indeed, although something tells me that Oregon posters might for some reason disagree with that sentiment. 😆

Looks great Seattle north again. We have seen this story before😂

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24 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

lots of dawgs (<-10) on GEFS. a few beasts (<-15). Mean bottoms out at -8.3 vs -7.9 on 12z vs 6z

 

gfs-renton-us-475n-122w (2).png

OMG look at them beasts!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Indeed, although something tells me that Oregon posters might for some reason disagree with that sentiment. 😆

They get a nice backdoor blast through the gorge with some flurries.  That initial cold Shot isn’t looking great for Fraser outflow. Too much easterly component.  And then we get a big snowstorm. Seems like a compromise at least.  I’m sure the euro will be different anyways. 

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Seems like more ensemble improvement. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks great Seattle north again. We have seen this story before😂

A few days ago, the Willamette Valley was being modelled to get the goods and MBY was getting left high and dry. I expect more flip-flopping, as usual. The main takeaway is that snow seems to be getting modelled at least somewhere in the lowlands each run.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Yeah, January has sucked everywhere. The real cold has been locked up in Asia since Christmas.

 

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I have a feeling the long range (240 hours+ is still in flux and we could see some explosive improvement there in the next few days. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like more ensemble improvement. 

GEFS bottoms out at -9c for Vancouver. Definitely trending cooler.  500mb pattern looks to have an improved ridge over Alaska next week and possibly a wetter pattern later next week

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One other piece that is nagging at me is we are probably going to see a regionally wet pattern develop sometime in the next 3-4 weeks.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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