Jump to content
The Weather Forums

PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

If the walker cell still looks like this in 5-6 weeks, I think we can safely put to rest any notion of an El Niño transition this year.

Most years that transitioned were building Indo-Pacific WWB activity by this point, and by Feb/Mar the western flank of the walker cell tends to be displaced significantly eastward.

And none of the borderline cases were full blown +QBO during the late winter/early spring season.

This looks like a healthy La Niña circulation.

DE37A1E3-0390-4D16-B3AC-7000FE14A2C3.gif

Uncharted waters from here if the Nina holds.

  • Like 4

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Staff
23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just pile the good vibes on. Can we get a 4peat??!

I would think you would be hoping for something different after the last 3 summers.  

  • Like 1
  • scream 1
  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even with the thermocline shoaled/depressed in the WPAC, it is meaningless if trades continue to rage.

A legitimate boreal spring WWB could easily change the picture as the thermocline is ripe for a DOKW, but usually there’s some indication of weakness in the La Niña cell by now, and I’m just not seeing it yet.

9EBB5B95-93C3-4B2E-A77D-EFD373A6CEA2.gif

  • Like 4
  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks good!

1.png

  • Like 6
  • Snow 2

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 29 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.25" (graupel)
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (mostly graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

These blasts that are straight from the north usually do well for snow and overperforming cold for Seattle.

  • Like 5
  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Uncharted waters from here if the Nina holds.

I suspect it’ll fade to neutral this year, but atmospherically, we’re lagging behind the El Niño transition years. At least for now.

Could easily be a 2 year transition, with 2023/24 returning to neutral and 2024/25 returning to El Niño.

Whether the next El Niño is this year or next year, I suspect it will be a moderate/strong event.

  • Like 7
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I suspect it’ll fade to neutral this year, but atmospherically, we’re lagging behind the El Niño transition years. At least for now.

Could easily be a 2 year transition, with 2023/24 returning to neutral and 2024/25 returning to El Niño.

Whether the next El Niño is this year or next year, I suspect it will be a moderate/strong event.

Totally agreed.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

February. Knows what month it is.

  • Like 1
  • Shivering 2

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 29 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.25" (graupel)
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (mostly graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

If you think that was good, just wait. Colder runs ahead. MBG!

Night Shift 6z GFS in 2 hours 34 minutes. Will the GFS finally correct itself latching onto the more likely GEM/ECMWF solution? No idea. Stay tuned!

I'm good if this is as good as gets from a 500mb perspective.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

February. Knows what month it is.

The real kicker is it starts this month.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, RentonHill said:

EPS day 5 vs 12z

E2AA802D-436A-4409-AC7C-F78C29B76F8A.png

EC700266-6387-4611-AA9F-070BC1E1769B.png

Wowwwww!!!

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just pile the good vibes on. Can we get a 4peat??!

Anything’s possible lol.

Best vibes are coming from the Hadley Cell/ML low pass. Now *much* improved over 2020-22. Looks like the 4CH could be quite a bit weaker this year.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
Just now, TT-SEA said:

Wasn't that a quick hitter in an otherwise warm month?    This seems more persistent.

The second shortwave is pretty similar as progged by the international camp. A lot weaker, but seems to evolve rapidly and skips the whole persistent southerly flow hangups we routinely get down here. 

  • Like 4

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Would be funny to have our first legit major upper level event in January in decades come in the waning hours of the 31st. 

Should it happen, I fully expect us to switch to Arctic conditions just after midnight on the 1. There's actually a contract that has somehow been signed to prevent January snowfall or Arctic conditions in this location per the terms of the 2-25-19 deal.

  • Like 2
  • Excited 2
  • lol 1
  • Shivering 2

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 29 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.25" (graupel)
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (mostly graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Would be funny to have our first legit major upper level event in January in decades come in the waning hours of the 31st. 

1989 has been the best strat analog since late December. Big W1 breakdown late January 1989, QBO full westerly, healthy La Niña, heading into solar maximum.

  • Like 3
  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It doesn't even deserve to be dignified with a response. Such a garbage post. Beneath than the lint in my dryer. About as valuable as an invasive species of tick.

  • lol 1
  • Confused 4
  • Popcorn 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 4.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 20th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It doesn't even deserve to be dignified with a response. Such a garbage post. Beneath than the lint in my dryer. About as valuable as an invasive species of tick.

Where is this post? I wanna read it. 🤠

  • Popcorn 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Should it happen, I fully expect us to switch to Arctic conditions just after midnight on the 1. There's actually a contract that has somehow been signed to prevent January snowfall or Arctic conditions in this location per the terms of the 2-25-19 deal.

Even seeing a modeled blast at this point makes this January a major win by 21st century standards! Beats probably 75% of them.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Anything’s possible lol.

Best vibes are coming from the Hadley Cell/ML low pass. Now *much* improved over 2020-22. Looks like the 4CH could be quite a bit weaker this year.

The implications of a weaker 4CH could mean some SAD TEARS this summer from some, though they might get lost in sheets of rain ;)

  • lol 1
  • Sad 1
  • Storm 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 4.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 2”; December 20th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Staff
1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

It doesn't even deserve to be dignified with a response. Such a garbage post. Beneath than the lint in my dryer. About as valuable as an invasive species of tick.

Wow.    It was an honest question though... the last wet summer we had was during a Nino.    A shake up might be good.

  • Confused 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

The implications of a weaker 4CH could mean some SAD TEARS this summer from some, though they might get lost in sheets of rain ;)

The Implication Always Sunny GIFs | Tenor

  • Like 2

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 29 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.25" (graupel)
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (mostly graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

The implications of a weaker 4CH could mean some SAD TEARS this summer from some, though they might get lost in sheets of rain ;)

Lol. It helps but doesn’t preclude a warm/hot summer. Still doable. :( 

But at least the entire west won’t be on fire this year (hopefully).

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Staff
2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The implications of a weaker 4CH could mean some SAD TEARS this summer from some, though they might get lost in sheets of rain ;)

I would gladly take a 2019 summer over another summer/fall like 2022.  

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
4 minutes ago, Phil said:

1989 has been the best strat analog since late December. Big W1 breakdown late January 1989, QBO full westerly, healthy La Niña, heading into solar maximum.

Unfortunately we don't have a big reservoir of -50 to -70F temps in AK to tap into this go around :( Probably due to the lack of Aqua Net. 

  • Sad 1
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...