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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Reload looks closer to us on this run though rather than completely sliding east like last night

this makes me feel a little better. Lots of good EPS members out there still. But GEM/Euro operationals led the way for the first shot, and have now backed off the second one. Really wish one of the two had stayed solid. As with yesterday, i'm sure the 18z GFS will guide us to the light. ecmwf-ensemble-KBFI-indiv_tmp_min-4475200.thumb.png.5ceb662dd74650e3d8420a7cf31252c8.png

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2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

this makes me feel a little better. Lots of good EPS members out there still. But GEM/Euro operationals led the way for the first shot, and have now backed off the second one. Really wish one of the two had stayed solid. As with yesterday, i'm sure the 18z GFS will guide us to the light. ecmwf-ensemble-KBFI-indiv_tmp_min-4475200.thumb.png.5ceb662dd74650e3d8420a7cf31252c8.png

Euro op also did show the second shot going out way over the Pacific ocean on one run while the EPS didn't agree, maybe it's just one run and it'll do something like that again.

Glad the first shot looks good so far.

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I get the feeling there’s gonna be some crazy emotional model riding swings this week, but in the end some or all of us will be winners. Same thing has happened with the last 2 rounds of winter weather no reason to this time won’t be any different.

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.88”

Wet season rainfall-16.37”

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Looks like Putin shared with Jinping.

 

If you're a snow weenie on Japan's west coast, you're just anxiously/excitedly waiting for all that pure frozen air straight out of Mars to dive across the sea and blast out feet upon feet of lake-effect snow. What I would give for the PNW to have a yearly winter set up as easy as that.

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All those moments will be lost in time. . .
like tears in snow.
 ❞

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Careful with those. The low pass isn’t filtered out, so the MJO isn’t isolated properly. I wouldn’t expect a significant MJO wave to cross the IPWP/dateline until the equatorial tropopause cools/raises in response to the BDC acceleration/stratwarm event.

So in other words, this upcoming pattern shift is not driven by the MJO? Or did I misunderstand you completely?

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1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

I get the feeling there’s gonna be some crazy emotional model riding swings this week, but in the end some or all of us will be winners. Same thing has happened with the last 2 rounds of winter weather no reason to this time won’t be any different.

I’m going to save the celebrating (or, as the case dictates, the bitter weenie mode) until we get a lot closer to the event. Right now the exact location of those modelled snow events really doesn’t mean much.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

18z GFS in 6 minutes. We are at Uncle's house and the liquor cabinet is fully stocked. This can only lead to greatness. C'MON!!!!

jim-lahey-lahey.gif

image.gif.046514e9bf8bc579704f7d2114cf0fc7.gif

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.88”

Wet season rainfall-16.37”

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12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

FTFY.

Portland is merely purple. I’m in the pepto pink zone.

These maps have resolution errors for Vancouver when we have a “regional look” that allows for terrain bleed. We Have to look at ensembles for a better idea since it’s more focused. However, yes you are probably the highest still😂😂😂

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm wondering what the BDC is. Phil is a never-ending fountain of acronyms.

Brewer-Dobson Circulation.

That's all I could figure out.  Here's what wiki says:  Brewer–Dobson circulation refers to the global atmospheric circulation pattern of tropical tropospheric air rising into the stratosphere and then moving poleward as it descends. 

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20 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

These maps have resolution errors for Vancouver when we have a “regional look” that allows for terrain bleed. We Have to look at ensembles for a better idea since it’s more focused. However, yes you are probably the highest still😂😂😂

Well, sure, and at this range its a crap shoot who gets the snow anyhow.

Still would think I'm in the purple even after adjusting for terrain bleed.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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If the Aleutian ridge could’ve just waited 4-5 days. 😔 We lose the WAFz at just the wrong time.

 

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Currently 47.8 after a low of 30. Looking like I will have a shot at 50 freezes this winter. If everything comes together next week it probably will happen.

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2022-2023 Winter Stats

Total Snowfall - 14.25”

Max Snow Depth - 6”

Coldest High Temp - 23F

Coldest Low Temp - 11F

Number of Freezes - 43

Sub-40 highs - 16

Highs 32 or lower - 3

 

 

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Currently 39F dry and cloudy.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 29 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.25" (graupel)
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (mostly graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

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My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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38 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I think it's finally the Willamette Valley's turn to be the big winners (along with Randy - goes without saying). This looks like the pattern to pull it off, if there ever was one.

 

Kiss of death!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol that doesn’t sound good

Happens every few years or up to about 35 years and fluctuates plenty. Misinformation article at its lowest.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 29 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.25" (graupel)
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (mostly graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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