Jump to content
The Weather Forums

PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

[re: Earth's inner core slowing down]

Not my field but, but I highly doubt that’s true.

It was news to me, too, but it seems to be a legit story. AFP is generally a pretty reliable source, and other generally reliable sources are also reporting it.

Apparently, evidence for the inner core rotating faster than the rest of the Earth is only a few decades old, so it seems as if the differences in angular velocity vary over time. My guess is that these sort of variations have been going on for millions of years.

  • Like 2
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have this nagging January 2020 Matt negativity in me right now…Not sure why but I have a bad feeling about all of this. The good news is that I ended up still doing great in Jan 2020! 

All you need is the one that coats.

image.gif

  • lol 2

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
Just now, Deweydog said:

Jet extension on the GFS does NOT look as strong as late December’s.

Hmmmmmmm…

Look for that to back off even further. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely not looking bad right now in my opinion. EPS mean gets down to -7.9c with the first cold shot and there are a good cluster of very cold members. Operational runs weren't amazing but ensembles have definitely improved

 

ecmwf-portland-us-456n-1(2).png

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Staff

The 12Z ECMWF only showed a couple below freezing nights over the next 10 days.     Even frost might be sort of rare if that re-load fails.   Or maybe the models will change and we have some below freezing highs!  

  • Sad 2
  • Shivering 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have this nagging January 2020 Matt negativity in me right now…Not sure why but I have a bad feeling about all of this. The good news is that I ended up still doing great in Jan 2020! 

28‚ÄĚ of snow here in January 2020. ¬†nice Fraser river event.¬†

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z ECMWF only showed a couple below freezing nights over the next 10 days.     Even frost might be sort of rare if that re-load fails.   Or maybe the models will change and we have some below freezing highs!  

This will be quite informative for that one guy that lives in south King County. Name sounds like Tim but isn’t. It’s right on the tip of my tongue…

  • Like 3
  • Excited 2

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Staff
Just now, Deweydog said:

This will be quite informative for that one guy that lives in south King County. Name sounds like Tim but isn’t. It’s right on the tip of my tongue…

I am trying to do a reverse jinx and make this happen so people can bump my posts and mock me when its 28 degrees and snowing one week from today.

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am trying to do a reverse jinx and make this happen so people can bump my posts and mock me when its 28 degrees and snowing one week from today.

Oh snap! Our first forecast!

I am firing up a contest tonight. If only for the fact that it’s a forecast contest IN JANUARY!

  • Like 4
  • Rain 1
  • scream 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Definitely not looking bad right now in my opinion. EPS mean gets down to -7.9c with the first cold shot and there are a good cluster of very cold members. Operational runs weren't amazing but ensembles have definitely improved

 

ecmwf-portland-us-456n-1(2).png

850s bottoming out in the -8 to -10 range seems like a reasonable expectation 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Staff
6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The GFS does have something around the 4th…..

CA89612D-F41A-4616-B781-D74600D31297.png

DB9EC33A-6743-41F1-B88B-506061D58D73.png

F77EAB4D-7DE8-42FB-BDD1-35D8DB392BC3.png

Our Hawaiian departure is on 2/4... go ahead assume this will happen.

  • Thanks 1
  • Excited 2
  • Popcorn 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Things look fine? Not sure what happened to sour the mood here so much

  • Like 4
  • Snow 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Things look fine? Not sure what happened to sour the mood here so much

No pepto snow maps. 

  • Like 2
  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No pepto snow maps. 

That's fair, but per the norm we're obviously not gonna know much about moisture specifics until we're locked into the pattern.

  • Like 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
Just now, Requiem said:

That's fair, but per the norm we're obviously not gonna know much about moisture specifics until we're locked into the pattern.

I really do think this could end up good. It's probably make or break for the lowlands. 

  • Like 4

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, Phil said:

VP200 signature on the EPS weeklies isn‚Äôt what you‚Äôd expect ahead of an El Ni√Īo transition. Solid La Ni√Īa cell continues with lift centered in the E-Hem/Indo domain.

8F69435A-B6AE-4068-BAA0-7896C385B05B.png 

How many 4th year Ninas are even on the record books?

  • Windy 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Staff
5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

How many 4th year Ninas are even on the record books?

Probably just goes to neutral this year... so it wouldn't count as a 4th year Nina.

  • Like 5

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Agreed. EPS was great with many members in the -10 to -20c range

I think people were expecting good trends to continue. Also, many OP runs have been awful. EPS this morning was still an improvement. 18z GEFS looks worse.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I think people were expecting good trends to continue. Also, many OP runs have been awful. EPS this morning was still an improvement.

Ensembles trended better this morning. Euro op wasn't bad either with a snowfall and a subfreezing high for PDX, just no reload which could obviously change

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

I think people were expecting good trends to continue. Also, many OP runs have been awful. EPS this morning was still an improvement.

Gfs is going in the right direction short term. 

  • Like 3

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer

26/1 at BNO today. Brrrrr

  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man and I thought I was a weenie (I am) ūüė≠ long week ahead¬†

  • Like 5
  • Excited 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I really do think this could end up good. It's probably make or break for the lowlands. 

We've already had a fun graupel shower, a sub-freezing high and a dynamic ice storm. Doing a helluva lot better than 2020-21 for this location for example.

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1
  • Shivering 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 16F (Jan 30, 2023)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 60¬†(Most recent: Mar 27, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5¬†(Most recent: Jan 30, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: Enough to give the winter an A
  • Last accumulating snowfall: Mar 5, 2023
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22,¬†2022¬†(31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: Mar 5, 2023
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22,¬†2022¬†(31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer

Beautiful afternoon in Polk county. 

99242A16-109A-4EFB-AC25-BDCA7B9C4138.png

  • Like 6

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Beautiful afternoon in Polk county. 

99242A16-109A-4EFB-AC25-BDCA7B9C4138.png

I stared at this photo for the better part of five minutes waiting for Sasquatch to walk by in the background.

  • Excited 2
  • lol 6

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z ECMWF only showed a couple below freezing nights over the next 10 days.     Even frost might be sort of rare if that re-load fails.   Or maybe the models will change and we have some below freezing highs!  

What's the temp output meteogram like for PDX from the 12z Euro compared to the 00z?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Staff
14 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What's the temp output meteogram like for PDX from the 12z Euro compared to the 00z?

Looks a little colder for PDX than SEA... presumably due to Gorge influence.  

00Z on top and 12Z on bottom with the usual reminder that day 10 on the 12Z run is the high through 4 a.m.  ;)

ecmwf-deterministic-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax-4432000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax-4475200.png

  • Like 1
  • Sick 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Riding Operationals is bad juju

Riding the models in general is bad juju 

  • Like 2

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-14

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-43

Total snowfall-7.6‚ÄĚ

Monthly rainfall-2.46‚ÄĚ

Wet season rainfall-20.85‚ÄĚ

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
6 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Been noticing the local year-round birds have become extremely active the past few days...trying to decide if they know something is coming or if they know its over.

Like I mentioned a few days ago…BIG increase in bird seed consumption the last several days just like what happened a week or two before the December goodies. They hardly touched the bird feeder for several weeks after Christmas. It’s coming. Just how long, cold, and snowy will it be is the big question. Only the birds, Matt, and Richard truly knows. 
 

Nice day! 44 for a high. Currently 37. 

D900C5F0-61CD-468D-992E-8E18D9A78BA6.jpeg

  • Like 2
  • Excited 2

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Staff

Noticeable shift east on the 18Z EPS and control run with first and second round... only goes out through 144 hours though.  

  • Sad 1
  • Sick 3

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Local ABC news is all in. calling for a high of 18 on Monday low of 5

Riding the local news affiliates is even worse juju.

  • Like 2
  • lol 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Like I mentioned a few days ago…BIG increase in bird seed consumption the last several days just like what happened a week or two before the December goodies. They hardly touched the bird feeder for several weeks after Christmas. It’s coming. Just how long, cold, and snowy will it be is the big question. Only the birds, Matt, and Richard truly knows. 
 

Nice day! 44 for a high. Currently 37. 

D900C5F0-61CD-468D-992E-8E18D9A78BA6.jpeg

LOL!  I missed that post, haven't had much time to keep up with the forum lately.  Good to know I'm not the only one noticing it.  My Golden Retriever has a very heavy emphasis on the "retriever" part and has been super distracted and almost impossible to train because of all of the bird flying around.  It's bad enough she is in her "angsty teenager phase" and the birds are not helping one bit!

We stayed socked in all day, temps 42/34

 

  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Chris unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...