PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Christensen87]

GFS is definitely unfortunate. In December, we didn't have any support from CFS like we do now though, so I'm still optimistic. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

[re: Earth's inner core slowing down]

Not my field but, but I highly doubt that’s true.

It was news to me, too, but it seems to be a legit story. AFP is generally a pretty reliable source, and other generally reliable sources are also reporting it.

Apparently, evidence for the inner core rotating faster than the rest of the Earth is only a few decades old, so it seems as if the differences in angular velocity vary over time. My guess is that these sort of variations have been going on for millions of years.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have this nagging January 2020 Matt negativity in me right now…Not sure why but I have a bad feeling about all of this. The good news is that I ended up still doing great in Jan 2020! 

All you need is the one that coats.

[Phishy Wx]

Our country's showcase model is still a heaping pile of shiit.  it's really unfortunate

[Deweydog]

Jet extension on the GFS does NOT look as strong as late December’s.

Hmmmmmmm…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Jet extension on the GFS does NOT look as strong as late December’s.

Hmmmmmmm…

Look for that to back off even further. 

[Deweydog]

Holatta spread in the ensembles beyond day six or so.

[Doinko]

Definitely not looking bad right now in my opinion. EPS mean gets down to -7.9c with the first cold shot and there are a good cluster of very cold members. Operational runs weren't amazing but ensembles have definitely improved

 

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z ECMWF only showed a couple below freezing nights over the next 10 days.     Even frost might be sort of rare if that re-load fails.   Or maybe the models will change and we have some below freezing highs!  

[Phishy Wx]

you guys need a nap

 

I'm about to take my daily one

[ShawniganLake]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have this nagging January 2020 Matt negativity in me right now…Not sure why but I have a bad feeling about all of this. The good news is that I ended up still doing great in Jan 2020! 

28” of snow here in January 2020.  nice Fraser river event. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z ECMWF only showed a couple below freezing nights over the next 10 days.     Even frost might be sort of rare if that re-load fails.   Or maybe the models will change and we have some below freezing highs!  

This will be quite informative for that one guy that lives in south King County. Name sounds like Tim but isn’t. It’s right on the tip of my tongue…

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

This will be quite informative for that one guy that lives in south King County. Name sounds like Tim but isn’t. It’s right on the tip of my tongue…

I am trying to do a reverse jinx and make this happen so people can bump my posts and mock me when its 28 degrees and snowing one week from today.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I am trying to do a reverse jinx and make this happen so people can bump my posts and mock me when its 28 degrees and snowing one week from today.

Oh snap! Our first forecast!

I am firing up a contest tonight. If only for the fact that it’s a forecast contest IN JANUARY!

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Definitely not looking bad right now in my opinion. EPS mean gets down to -7.9c with the first cold shot and there are a good cluster of very cold members. Operational runs weren't amazing but ensembles have definitely improved

 

850s bottoming out in the -8 to -10 range seems like a reasonable expectation 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Close your eyes Portland 

[SouthHillFrosty]

The GFS does have something around the 4th…..

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The GFS does have something around the 4th…..

Our Hawaiian departure is on 2/4... go ahead assume this will happen.

[Requiem]

Things look fine? Not sure what happened to sour the mood here so much

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Things look fine? Not sure what happened to sour the mood here so much

No pepto snow maps. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Our Hawaiian departure is on 2/4... go ahead assume this will happen.

Thanks for your sacrifice!

[Requiem]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No pepto snow maps. 

That's fair, but per the norm we're obviously not gonna know much about moisture specifics until we're locked into the pattern.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Requiem said:

That's fair, but per the norm we're obviously not gonna know much about moisture specifics until we're locked into the pattern.

I really do think this could end up good. It's probably make or break for the lowlands. 

[Omegaraptor]

57 minutes ago, Phil said:

VP200 signature on the EPS weeklies isn’t what you’d expect ahead of an El Niño transition. Solid La Niña cell continues with lift centered in the E-Hem/Indo domain.

 

How many 4th year Ninas are even on the record books?

[RentonHill]

Maybe I go back to my original guess of third week of feb

[Doinko]

16 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Things look fine? Not sure what happened to sour the mood here so much

Agreed. EPS was great with many members in the -10 to -20c range

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

How many 4th year Ninas are even on the record books?

None.

[WeatherGeek2022]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Maybe I go back to my original guess of third week of feb

chasing the big one all winter long.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

How many 4th year Ninas are even on the record books?

Probably just goes to neutral this year... so it wouldn't count as a 4th year Nina.

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Agreed. EPS was great with many members in the -10 to -20c range

I think people were expecting good trends to continue. Also, many OP runs have been awful. EPS this morning was still an improvement. 18z GEFS looks worse.

[Doinko]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I think people were expecting good trends to continue. Also, many OP runs have been awful. EPS this morning was still an improvement.

Ensembles trended better this morning. Euro op wasn't bad either with a snowfall and a subfreezing high for PDX, just no reload which could obviously change

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

I think people were expecting good trends to continue. Also, many OP runs have been awful. EPS this morning was still an improvement.

Gfs is going in the right direction short term. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Tonight's runs are going to be fantastic!

00z GFS in 3 hours 23 minutes
00z GEM in 3 hours 43 minutes
00z ECMWF in 5 hours 33 minutes

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gfs is going in the right direction short term. 

Really? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

26/1 at BNO today. Brrrrr

[Requiem]

Man and I thought I was a weenie (I am) long week ahead 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

36 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I really do think this could end up good. It's probably make or break for the lowlands. 

We've already had a fun graupel shower, a sub-freezing high and a dynamic ice storm. Doing a helluva lot better than 2020-21 for this location for example.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful afternoon in Polk county. 

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Beautiful afternoon in Polk county. 

I stared at this photo for the better part of five minutes waiting for Sasquatch to walk by in the background.

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z ECMWF only showed a couple below freezing nights over the next 10 days.     Even frost might be sort of rare if that re-load fails.   Or maybe the models will change and we have some below freezing highs!  

What's the temp output meteogram like for PDX from the 12z Euro compared to the 00z?

[Phishy Wx]

Riding Operationals is bad juju

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What's the temp output meteogram like for PDX from the 12z Euro compared to the 00z?

Looks a little colder for PDX than SEA... presumably due to Gorge influence.  

00Z on top and 12Z on bottom with the usual reminder that day 10 on the 12Z run is the high through 4 a.m.  

[Chewbacca Defense]

Been noticing the local year-round birds have become extremely active the past few days...trying to decide if they know something is coming or if they know its over.

[TacomaWx]

22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Riding Operationals is bad juju

Riding the models in general is bad juju 

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Been noticing the local year-round birds have become extremely active the past few days...trying to decide if they know something is coming or if they know its over.

Like I mentioned a few days ago…BIG increase in bird seed consumption the last several days just like what happened a week or two before the December goodies. They hardly touched the bird feeder for several weeks after Christmas. It’s coming. Just how long, cold, and snowy will it be is the big question. Only the birds, Matt, and Richard truly knows. 
 

Nice day! 44 for a high. Currently 37. 

[Phishy Wx]

Local ABC news is all in. calling for a high of 18 on Monday low of 5

[TT-SEA]

Noticeable shift east on the 18Z EPS and control run with first and second round... only goes out through 144 hours though.  

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Local ABC news is all in. calling for a high of 18 on Monday low of 5

Riding the local news affiliates is even worse juju.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Like I mentioned a few days ago…BIG increase in bird seed consumption the last several days just like what happened a week or two before the December goodies. They hardly touched the bird feeder for several weeks after Christmas. It’s coming. Just how long, cold, and snowy will it be is the big question. Only the birds, Matt, and Richard truly knows. 
 

Nice day! 44 for a high. Currently 37. 

LOL!  I missed that post, haven't had much time to keep up with the forum lately.  Good to know I'm not the only one noticing it.  My Golden Retriever has a very heavy emphasis on the "retriever" part and has been super distracted and almost impossible to train because of all of the bird flying around.  It's bad enough she is in her "angsty teenager phase" and the birds are not helping one bit!

We stayed socked in all day, temps 42/34

 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Riding the local news affiliates is even worse juju.

turned it on to watch some sports news.  but yeah most likely.  It's over