PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

Uh oh........

[bainbridgekid]

00z much better for this weekend. It might be coming.

[Deweydog]

[SpaceRace22]

Wow. Day 5 is shockingly different on the 00z from the previous runs. Not sure if it's going to matter further down the line, but I am intrigued.

[Front Ranger]

GFS definitely taking a step towards the Euro. This progression looks a bit similar to mid December.

[RentonHill]

looks like he got hold of the wrong stuff

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Terreboner2 said:

Ya, but I don't hang my hat on a couple of bad runs, more about the trends.  Some of the dudes on here see a bad 12z run and they run for the exits.

I suggested they take a nap earlier.  might help

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend) Well, don't like that. Arctic trough is digging out to our north off Vancouver Island. Maybe I made Old Man Winter upset.

[TT-SEA]

What is the GFS doing?   Wow is that different.  Randy wins again!

[Doinko]

This run brings the Arctic air way slower than the other runs.

[SpaceRace22]

00z says my flight into PDX on the 29th is absolutely not happening, lol

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5.5 Block nearly pinching off .... IF we can get cold east wind maybe this becomes very snowy or icy.

[Phishy Wx]

gfs is gfs'n

don't sweat it

[bainbridgekid]

Nice seeing a snow map like this inside day 6. It’s been a while.

[RentonHill]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

What is the GFS doing?   Wow is that different.  Randy wins again!

playing whack a mole with those cutoffs. popping back and forth on either side of the ridge run to run and Canadian has them all out in the pacific at hr 90

[Doinko]

Very snowy for Portland though

[snow_wizard]

You have got to be kidding.  The GFS found a way to drop the ball again.  It appeared this run was going places early on.

[TT-SEA]

Everyone wins! 

[Cold Snap]

Major changes so far on the 00z that trough next weekend could end up being something if it doesn’t dig too far offshore.

[Phishy Wx]

need to charge my snow blower batteries

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh look massive north south gradient. I’ll take the icon. 

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

You have got to be kidding.  The GFS found a way to drop the ball again.  It appeared this run was going places early on.

Yeah, not even sure how it's showing this while everything else is showing something massively different.

[RentonHill]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Everyone wins! 

I trust the surface details more than the 500mb pattern at this point

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh look massive north south gradient. I’ll take the icon. 

Big snowstorm at least

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Very snowy PDX!

[High Desert Mat?]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 5.5 Block nearly pinching off .... IF we can get cold east wind maybe this becomes very snowy or icy.

Cut off bias Rob. Also, way better west than to have it shifting east. 

[Front Ranger]

The CMC is much further east with the initial trough, way different.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Uhhhh yeah nevermind about that gradient. 

[RentonHill]

GFS vs GEM hr 108

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (4-run trend)

[snow_wizard]

I guess it pulls it out of the fire eventually, but the pattern looks tortured and unlikely to happen.

[Christensen87]

I mean, I don’t mind this run at all lol 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Uhhhh yeah nevermind about that gradient. 

You're going to get dumped on and can finally build those snow titties you've dreamed of.

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 6 (4-run trend)

That is absolutely bizarre. That's an hour 300+ level of run to run change.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

Goofus is good for 72, great for 48, orgasmic for 24, unstable at 12.

It's a joke.  Somebody just needs to shoot it and put it out of its misery.

[RentonHill]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I guess it pulls it out of the fire eventually, but the pattern looks tortured and unlikely to happen.

thats a great way to put it

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Terreboner2 said:

That's an Andrew, Josh, Mat, almost TWL special.

I think @Gradient Keeper's email worked

 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

That is absolutely bizarre. That's an hour 300+ level of run to run change.

Terrible model.  It was terrible with the last cold event too.

[Requiem]

I *adore* this run but it's definitely one of those weird GFS one and done quirks. But I'm enjoying the eye candy while it lasts

 

[bainbridgekid]

56 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Can I get a refund? I thought we were having a 2019 redux 

 

Two feet in Austin, TX. Seems legit.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

I think @Gradient Keeper's email worked

 

Nah, not an e-mail. I posted that in my FB group in the 00z GFS model riding thread.

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You have got to be kidding.  The GFS found a way to drop the ball again.  It appeared this run was going places early on.

The foot of snow it drops here this weekend would be an egregious missed opportunity for sure.

[TT-SEA]

Just to add to the chaos... the 18Z EPS and control run actually shifted east.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Doinko]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Nah, not an e-mail. I posted that in my FB group in the 00z GFS model riding thread.

Well this run seems to really like Portland lol

[SpaceRace22]

The 500mb pattern just looks so bizarre on this one I just don't know what to think. But that said, one thing I am really liking about this run is that the bitterly cold air is way closer with -30 850mb temps hanging out just over the border in BC. Previous runs have had anything colder than -25 sliding way off to the east into Montana.

 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 6 (4-run trend)

The block tries to pinch off way too fast on this run.  Not buying it.

[RentonHill]

GEM 850s hr 150 trend...loooks great

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Everyone wins! 

Seattle pissed off the weather gods wtf. A straight vertical line lmao 

[Doinko]

GEM looks wonderful for the first shot