PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Deweydog]

JIMOOD model seems vastly different compared to last night’s run.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Seattle pissed off the weather gods wtf. A straight vertical line lmao 

Not liking those low totals for east king county. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 6.5 big backdoor blast on this run!

[Doinko]

Could someone post a WB map for snow totals zoomed in on NW OR from the GFS?

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

GEM looks wonderful for the first shot

Looks more realistic and way less snowy than the GFS, that's for sure.

[Gradient Keeper]

Back to the GFS Day 8

[snow_wizard]

As messy and ugly as the evolution is on this run it does deliver some goodies.

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, Doinko said:

Could someone post a WB map for snow totals zoomed in on NW OR?

 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEM Day 6.5 big backdoor blast on this run!

Afternoon temp in the low 20s

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Could someone post a WB map for snow totals zoomed in on NW OR from the GFS?

No I can’t 

[Deweydog]

Who’s got the ️️to make a forecast 2nite?

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Not liking those low totals for east king county. 

It's because of the way the low goes so far off the coast.  Probably not going to happen that way.

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z GEM is actually a huge shift east from its 12Z run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Please weenie tag my north south gradient post.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

 

 

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

No I can’t 

Thanks. Probably will be gone on the 06z but that would be pretty amazing, 1.5ft of snow.

Poor EPSL though

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEM shows almost no snow before it dries out.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I lost some intelligence just looking at it.

I think this about sums up the GFS tonight.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GEM looks wonderful for the first shot

 

The GEM is pretty. 

One thing I like about the GFS tonight is it seems to keep the cold potential alive longer.  A trend I suspect we will see going forward.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEM shows almost no snow before it dries out.

CLASSIC Tim post

[Doinko]

Lol GFS is bringing more snow

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Deweydog]

Tay-Tay taking in the backdoor big time on the Canadian. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

CLASSIC Tim post

I know right. He’s in panic mode as the mob mentality takes hold 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z GEM is actually a huge shift east from its 12Z run.

The further west runs result in a faster demise of the cold pattern.

[SnowWillarrive]

This could be our last shot of winter.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

CLASSIC Tim post

I also posted GFS snow maps.   When there is model chaos we want to see everything.  It's so silly to ignore the snow maps and call out the bad maps.   I pretty much post everything.   

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 3.5 (4-run trend) Block very beefy, cut-off low further west.

[snow_wizard]

Certainly hard to complain with the results of what the GFS shows.  It's just the fact it's so weird.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The further west runs result in a faster demise of the cold pattern.

For sure.   

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I know right. He’s in panic mode as the mob mentality takes hold 

Panic mode?  I posted the GFS snow map too.   I love this sh*t and going along for the ride!   Wherever it goes.  

[Requiem]

00Z Arcadian model is waaaay further east with both shots of cold air.

[lowlandsnow]

Another snowstorm for Central/Southern Oregon on GFS

[Doinko]

GEM and ICON were great, major backdoor blasts.

GFS was great in a much weirder way though, massive snowstorm for PDX and a second shot later on.

No bad runs so far this night

[SouthHillFrosty]

Tiger will be happy

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Deweydog]

Surface detail sugar highs/crashes aside, one consistent theme is heights around 570dm in Southern AK. Hard to avoid something somethingy if that’s in place.

[Doinko]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Tiger will be happy

20" of snow for me! Most of it in one day on this

[MossMan]

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Certainly hard to complain with the results of what the GFS shows.  It's just the fact it's so weird.

The problem is we just don't see a low drop down the coast dumping copious amounts of snow to the entire I-5 corridor when the block starts pinching off and energy digs out west of Vancouver Island. That's just not how it works. Sadly.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEFS looks about identical to its 12Z run at 120 hours.   No crazy shift like the operational run.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. AMAZING regional snow storm!

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

00Z Arcadian model is waaaay further east with both shots of cold air.

Rozarria Territory...  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Unbelievable GFS run. Icon and Gem

would bring big league cold for days, but lack the snow. 

[BLI snowman]

Way premature and almost certainly a death blow to this happening, but some food for thought!

Looking like a potential opportunity for SEA/PDX to pull off the rarest of the rare and score subfreezing highs in December, January, and February.

Last time that that happened for PDX was 1978-79. Last time for SEA was 1949-50. And the two have actually never both pulled it off in the same winter in the airport era. 

[Phishy Wx]

still on track, no worries peeps

rip a doob and chill

[Doinko]

GFS is about to bury the region

[Deweydog]

Still no WSW from the PDX office.

What a joke.

Actually, I’m kinda worried they’ve all been Incapacitated by a carbon monoxide leak or something.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Way premature and almost certainly a death blow to this happening, but some food for thought!

Looking like a potential opportunity for SEA/PDX to pull off the rarest of the rare and score subfreezing highs in December, January, and February.

Last time that that happened for PDX was 1978-79. Last time for SEA was 1949-50. And the two have actually never both pulled it off in the same winter in the airport era. 

Bloody hands.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Bloody hands.

He tried very hard to mitigate the jinx he was about to unleash with his opening sentence acknowledging the jinx he was about to unleash. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Omg omg omg