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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Not liking those low totals for east king county. 

It's because of the way the low goes so far off the coast.  Probably not going to happen that way.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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  • Longtimer

Please weenie tag my north south gradient post. 🤦‍♂️🤡

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GEM looks wonderful for the first shot

 

850th.us_nw.png

The GEM is pretty. 

One thing I like about the GFS tonight is it seems to keep the cold potential alive longer.  A trend I suspect we will see going forward.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z GEM is actually a huge shift east from its 12Z run.

The further west runs result in a faster demise of the cold pattern.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

CLASSIC Tim post 😂

I also posted GFS snow maps.   When there is model chaos we want to see everything.  It's so silly to ignore the snow maps and call out the bad maps.   I pretty much post everything.   😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Certainly hard to complain with the results of what the GFS shows.  It's just the fact it's so weird.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I know right. He’s in panic mode as the mob mentality takes hold 

Panic mode?  I posted the GFS snow map too.   I love this sh*t and going along for the ride!   Wherever it goes.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z Arcadian model is waaaay further east with both shots of cold air.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Certainly hard to complain with the results of what the GFS shows.  It's just the fact it's so weird.

The problem is we just don't see a low drop down the coast dumping copious amounts of snow to the entire I-5 corridor when the block starts pinching off and energy digs out west of Vancouver Island. That's just not how it works. Sadly.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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  • Longtimer

Unbelievable GFS run. Icon and Gem

would bring big league cold for days, but lack the snow. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Way premature and almost certainly a death blow to this happening, but some food for thought!

Looking like a potential opportunity for SEA/PDX to pull off the rarest of the rare and score subfreezing highs in December, January, and February.

Last time that that happened for PDX was 1978-79. Last time for SEA was 1949-50. And the two have actually never both pulled it off in the same winter in the airport era. 

Bloody hands.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Bloody hands.

He tried very hard to mitigate the jinx he was about to unleash with his opening sentence acknowledging the jinx he was about to unleash. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

Omg omg omg 

A3B25915-7AFE-4776-B3CE-731F76F9F1E6.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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A few tidbits from Mark Nelsen's latest blog post:

This setup is THE SETUP you want to get cold/snow into the region. Some moisture gets picked up by the cold air heading out over the ocean. Then a little extra lifting as that surface wedge of cold air pushes into the region. Sometimes we get NOTHING snow-wise out of this pattern as cold air arrives, other times maybe up to 2″. It depends on how that upper level trough digs south too. If it just moves by quickly and slightly east of where the Euro model shows it (above), we are typically just dry and a chilly east wind begins to blow. Since we’re still 5+ days out, it’s a real guess exactly how this turns out.

 

And then notice about 1/2 of GFS ensemble members produce noticeable snow in Portland on the chart below. That’s a decent indicator that SOMETHING is up for this weekend. But what we aren’t seeing yet? MOST of those members producing snow; this situation is very much still evolving.

 

 

The two extreme possibilities I see right now:

1) We pick up 1-3″ of snow Saturday night, Portland is frozen all day Sunday and Monday, then a little more snow falls around Tuesday or Wednesday next week. 3-4 days of icy/cold stuff.

2) A chilly east wind arrives Saturday night, a few flurries fall, but doesn’t affect any of us. Temperatures only reach around 38-42 for a few days, then it’s back to milder/wetter the middle of next week and beyond. No real snow falls in Portland and it’s just a bit cold for a few days. Your life continues the same Sunday and into next week.

My gut feeling is it’ll be somewhere in between. But I’ll be at work all week; no scheduled time off until the end of February!

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