Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 As mentioned....00z GEM definitely gets the job done. Day 7 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, MillCreekMike said: Forecast said 1-3 inches here Not gonna lie, jelly. Was up in cle elum last weekend and all rain and melt. Enjoy! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Down to 35F and partly cloudy. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MikeInEverett Posted January 22, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 This is the first snowstorm I’ve experienced not at home. This definitely doesn’t feel the same as being able to experience this with friends and the forum and seeing posts all over social media as well as videos of cars sliding everywhere, but this is still pretty darn magical! Some pictures of downtown Roslyn. 5.5” and counting. 11 1 Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 GFS Day 9'er giving it another shot long range. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 GEM frigid 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 GFS Day 10 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Gfs looks like crap 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 20 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said: This is the first snowstorm I’ve experienced not at home. This definitely doesn’t feel the same as being able to experience this with friends and the forum and seeing posts all over social media as well as videos of cars sliding everywhere, but this is still pretty darn magical! Some pictures of downtown Roslyn. 5.5” and counting. I wish Roslyn was a bigger town. Makes me want to move there . 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Sad to see the GFS have to be sent right back out to the woodshed. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just now, Deweydog said: Sad to see the GFS have to be sent right back out to the woodshed. GEM 4 Lyfe 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 The small accumulation of slush from this afternoon is frozen. 32F. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Moderate rain with possible positive splats. Down to 37.4 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 I’m just glad the weathers finally getting more interesting and we have stuff to track on the models. Has been pretty stale for awhile nice that things are getting more active again. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 What a horrible GFS run. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Cleared out and below freezing again. 2 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 I'm at 37F right now...earlier we had maybe two minutes of snow or mixed white precipitation falling but I didn't go outside and it didn't accumulate if at all. This winter hasn't been as exciting as last or the year prior to that, but I'm content as we did get a few days with enough snow to play in it. Wouldn't mind more of course. Last winter I know I had at least 19 or 20 inches of snow based on the forum but my Dec count is missing for that year (and we were gone for a day or two of snow) so probably had more. I wish I started measuring in 2020 though. We had some reallly really deep snow when everyone else had it (I think it was Feb but can't remember) and enough snow to write a political message the Sunday after the election so likely at least 2 inches. It takes a minimum of 1.50+ to mostly make the grass invisible and 2 for total coverage I'd post the picture here (for snow depth guesses but I don't want to start a politics post). 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 went to birthday dinner, came out to about 1.5-2" on the car. not bad. radar is down in Spokane for the week so hard to tell what's actually happening 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 GEFS certainly looks cold and dry. A compromise between the ECMWF models and GFS models would be pretty darn good. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 37 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: What a horrible GFS run. A lot of northerly flow. Pretty hard to call that anywhere near horrible. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 I wonder if the models will ever be good enough to nail down details on an event like this more than a few days in advance. It's always frustrating only having a vague idea of how it will actually go down. On the other hand the surprises can be fun. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I wonder if the models will ever be good enough to nail down details on an event like this more than a few days in advance. It's always frustrating only having a vague idea of how it will actually go down. On the other hand the surprises can be fun. The only time I can recall 7-8 days out was December 2008. Unbelievable model agreement. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 00z ECMWF Day 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 00z WRF was fairly cold if it actually verified. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Yeah the models have settled on the general pattern, but one wouldn’t expect details to start fleshing out until the 5-7 day range. I’ve kind of assumed the first surge of cold was going to mainly go east of the Rockies and we had a better chance with the 2nd surge, around the 2nd, but I have seen enough that a big cold shot late next weekend wouldn’t shock me. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Day 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Feels like volatility is gonna be the name of the game next week. Prolly not as dramatic as December though. 6 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Day 3 Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Feels like volatility is gonna be the name of the game next week. Prolly not as dramatic as December though. Wonder if we see any -20C Euro runs. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Wonder if we see any -20C Euro runs. 2025-26 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Not good 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceRace22 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Don't worry guys, I'm coming up to visit family in Portland from 1/30 through 2/10. Last time I was in Portland was April 11, 2022 and we all know what happened then. So we'll be good, the weather gods like me. 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Not good Bar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 no opinion shall matter other than that of king EURO. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 It’s not just for hour 384 anymore! 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceRace22 Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I wonder if the models will ever be good enough to nail down details on an event like this more than a few days in advance. It's always frustrating only having a vague idea of how it will actually go down. On the other hand the surprises can be fun. Honestly, with the recent advancements in AI technology that continue to come at an exponential rate, I think it's quite likely that within the next 5-10 years we will see some shocking improvements to weather modeling. There may be an upper limit where it's basically impossible to forecast accurately beyond, thanks to the butterfly effect. But I suspect that we are not that far off from seeing model runs with exceptional accuracy within 384 hours. Part of me wonders if knowing all the exact details with near certainty 2-3 weeks out will take some of the fun out of it though, lol. Half the fun for me is the anticipation and model riding. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Day 4 Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS. Euro amplifying the ridge much sooner and further west with the Kona low. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2023 Report Share Posted January 22, 2023 Ridge merger HR 102 just a touch past Day 4 a bit sooner than other models. Evolving ridge looks very healthy. Kona Low in excellent location. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by Cascadia_Wx,
Legendary
Recommended by Meatyorologist
16 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.