PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

I get 4 inches early Sunday. Go too far out and OP doesn't matter.

4" would be nice, but we can do better. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I know Phillip says the PNA is not a biggie but if we want more than just a few day event I want to see that PNA staying negative (my opinion)…And it’s refusing. Hopefully we will make the most of the quick hitter but it’s not looking good precip wise. 

Here you go.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I know Phillip says the PNA is not a biggie but if we want more than just a few day event I want to see that PNA staying negative (my opinion)…And it’s refusing. Hopefully we will make the most of the quick hitter but it’s not looking good precip wise. 

Really looking like a quick hitter. Quite a bit to complain about today in fact. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really looking like a quick hitter. Quite a bit to complain about today in fact. 

EPS PNA much better.

[Slushy Inch]

Interesting the Euro weeklies and GEFS extended nearly match.

[Phishy Wx]

You guys freakin out yet MAAAAAN??

 

FTR, I'm still all in.  No worries

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

You guys freakin out yet MAAAAAN??

FTR, I'm still all in.  No worries

Not at all. Just having fun with the vomit and excited reacts depending on whether a given map shows snow IMBY or not. Standard clown-range model riding stuff. What matters at this stage is the general trend of colder with snow chances.

[Deweydog]

Andrew giving Jim a run for this bi-polar money!

#longweek

#itsonlytuesday

#metoo

#alonetogether

Edited January 24 by Deweydog

[Christensen87]

Was hoping last night’s odd run would’ve been the start of a better trend, but here we go again. These up and down emotions are frustrating, but we’re all pretty much used to it at this point. 

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

You guys freakin out yet MAAAAAN??

 

FTR, I'm still all in.  No worries

As long as ensembles show a chance a of snow and cold. I'm in! Not going to be discouraged by a bad OP until ensemble comes out.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Was hoping last night’s odd run would’ve been the start of a better trend, but here we go again. These up and down emotions are frustrating, but we’re all pretty much used to it. 

What's gone wrong so far today? I see an improved GEFS and improved GFS in the short term. I guess it's just not as good as expected?

[ShawniganLake]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really looking like a quick hitter. Quite a bit to complain about today in fact. 

Warning shot!

[LowerGarfield]

Thinking of everyone here while working.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

Thinking of everyone here while working.

Haha, but I love windstorms.

[umadbro]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

What's gone wrong so far today? I see an improved GEFS and improved GFS in the short term. I guess it's just not as good as expected?

That’s just this weather group. Every single model run IS the correct one.

[Slushy Inch]

This is why I'm not worried about GFS. The big question is how the undercutting trough comes in.

[Christensen87]

12 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

What's gone wrong so far today? I see an improved GEFS and improved GFS in the short term. I guess it's just not as good as expected?

Definitely colder for this weekend, I do like that. 12z run scours out the cold air later next week though, like the past few runs have showed. Last night’s run kept the cold air going through even next weekend, which would be nice. Was just hoping that trend continued is all. I’m picky. Model riding, yay! 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

12z run scours out the cold air later next week, like the past few runs have showed. Last night’s run kept the cold air going through even next weekend, which would be nice. Was just hoping that trend continued is all. Model riding, yay! 

Luckily the ensemble keeps us a cold. Mean high in low thirties on Tuesday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Luckily the ensemble keeps us a cold. Mean high in low thirties on Tuesday.

That would be such a blessing. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really looking like a quick hitter. Quite a bit to complain about today in fact. 

No replay of 1916? We’re getting robbed! This climate sucks!

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Luckily the ensemble keeps us a cold. Mean high in low thirties on Tuesday.

Fleeting remnants of an INCREDIBLE January.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, umadbro said:

That’s just this weather group. Every single model run IS the correct one.

The correct ones are the ones showing the most snow IMBY.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The correct ones are the ones showing the most snow IMBY.

Exactly. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the GFS ensembles have improved slightly. Let's keep that improvement going. 

[ShawniganLake]

GEFS and GEPS both come in with 850s bottoming out around -10C for the south coast of BC.  Some nice crisp late winter days next week. 

[RentonHill]

Number 7 on the GEFS, please

[Slushy Inch]

This 12z Euro having trouble coming out?

[Gummy]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

This 12z Euro having trouble coming out?

It has breached, this won't end well for us. No snow and highs around 37 for Monday.

[Deweydog]

Ugh… timing is slowing down.

[Slushy Inch]

Just from internet issues? The run may come out all at once.https://twitter.com/weatherbell/status/1617947841439338498?s=20&t=AEe-XEULZ61i35pzAFNyug

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Uh oh. Server melting down with all the global warmth. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Uh oh. Server melting down with all the global warmth. 

Can you imagine if we were a day from a serious event? Running models needs to be more reliable.

[Cold Snap]

12z GEFS looks slightly better in the long range than 06z.

[SouthHillFrosty]

We still get there in the ensembles 

Edited January 24 by SouthHillFrosty

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We still get there in the ensembles 

Note how the pepto extends to the middle of the Strait of Georgia in places. It’s not just terrain bleed.

[Cascadia_Wx]

The tangible weather in the short term is probably more of a bummer to me than predictable fluctuations on the models. Another night where the Portland area was stuck under a localized mid level cloud deck while places to the north and south scored another freeze.  

Mostly cloud and low of 37 here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The tangible weather in the short term is probably more of a bummer to me than predictable fluctuations on the models. Another night where the Portland area was stuck under a localized mid level cloud deck while places to the north and south scored another freeze.  

Mostly cloud and low of 37 here.

That sucks. We've been loving the frosty nights down this way. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EUG and SLE sitting at 34 at the moment. Looks like Medford is as well after hitting a low of 24. Salem dipped to 29, Eugene hit the freezing mark. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That sucks. We've been loving the frosty nights down this way. 

I can’t even convey to you how terrible this location is except when it’s not and does pretty well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I can’t even convey to you how terrible this location is except when it’s not and does pretty well.

My thoughts exactly. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like The Dalles is sitting at 51 after a low of 41. Brrrrrr....

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I can’t even convey to you how terrible this location is except when it’s not and does pretty well.

To paraphrase Dan Quayle: If you don’t succeed, you run the risk of failure.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like The Dalles is sitting at 51 after a low of 41. Brrrrrr....

I feel like the scientist trying to warn everyone on The Day After Tomorrow talking about that station here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just projected SLE through the end of the month based on current NWS forecast. Looks like they would end up with a +0.3 departure. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

John Day Dam is sitting at 42 after a low of 33. Hood River is 41 after a low of 32. DLS is about ten degrees warmer all around. At least it’s not running too cold, now THAT would be a travesty.

[Cascadia_Wx]

As far as the upcoming pattern, I haven’t been tracking it too hard but I don’t see anything to complain about really. We may get a coveted last few days of January cold shot with some snow in spots. Nice to see even if it’s not a 1950 redux. What happens beyond that is of course subject to massive change considering the event itself isn’t even pinned down yet.

Edited January 24 by Cascadia_Wx

[RentonHill]

looks like we might be waiting another hour...at least

[Deweydog]

My autonomic nervous system is reacting to the now-completed Euro run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

looks like we might be waiting another hour...at least

Time to get FIRED UP for the CFS. 

[The Blob]

I have been enjoying the sun. Makes the weekends tolerable.