PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

As far as the upcoming pattern, I haven’t been tracking it too hard but I don’t see anything to complain about really. We may get a coveted last few days of January cold shot with some snow in spots. Nice to see even if it’s not a 1950 redux. What happens beyond that is of course subject to massive change considering the event itself isn’t even pinned down yet.

Yeah, it may not end up fulfilling our hopes and dreams, but we still have a few more weeks of potential. Any accumulating snow at the I-5 stations and/or sub-20 lows or sub freezing highs would be a blessing indeed. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, The Blob said:

I have been enjoying the sun. Makes the weekends tolerable.

I know a few good lawyers. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, it may not end up fulfilling our hopes and dreams, but we still have a few more weeks of potential. Any accumulating snow at the I-5 stations and/or sub-20 lows or sub freezing highs would be a blessing indeed. 

Appreciate the real talk Andrew  

[The Blob]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know a few good lawyers. 

Thanks for the pep talk.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Appreciate the real talk Andrew  

I'm disappointed the snow chances next week are disappearing, but it should at least still be cold/chilly when we get back on Monday. Have the wood stacked by the house for my in-laws who are staying at our place while we are gone. Should see some snow tomorrow in KC and then will be back in KC Sunday for some mid-20s highs. Fun stuff. 

[TT-SEA]

Any word on when or if there will be a 12Z ECMWF run today?

[Deweydog]

Just had a credit post to my Costco Citibank card from Auto Zone for windshield wipers I returned last Friday when models were FAR less interesting. Gotta think it’s tied to whatever the Euro is showing but not yet showing.

[Phishy Wx]

my Hilton Honors account got hacked

 

so it's definitely coming

 

oof

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm disappointed the snow chances next week are disappearing, but it should at least still be cold/chilly when we get back on Monday. Have the wood stacked by the house for my in-laws who are staying at our place while we are gone. Should see some snow tomorrow in KC and then will be back in KC Sunday for some mid-20s highs. Fun stuff. 

Love me some KC.

[Weiner Warrior]

Just got off a big conference call with the EURO's CEO. It's showing 10 inches for Seattle and 6 inches for Portland ending Monday. He said to prepare. Get your TP now and pick up plenty of yule logs.

 

[Slushy Inch]

Have they tried turning things off and on?

[RentonHill]

27 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

looks like we might be waiting another hour...at least

@TT-SEA

[Deweydog]

15 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Just got off a big conference call with the EURO's CEO. It's showing 10 inches for Seattle and 6 inches for Portland ending Monday. He said to prepare. Get your TP now and pick up plenty of yule logs.

 

Who else was on the call?

[Deweydog]

Since we’re sitting here in the dark ages, here was the afternoon forecast from PDXNWS on 2/11/95…

STATE FORECAST FOR OREGON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PST SAT FEB 11 1995

ORZ001>007-013-121100-
STATE FORECAST FOR WESTERN OREGON          
300 PM PST SAT FEB 11 1995

...SNOW ADVISORY NORTH CASCADES FOR TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LOCAL HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS
CASCADES. INCREASING CLOUDS FAR SOUTH OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH.
LOWS UPPER 20S TO NEAR 40. 
.SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY NORTH SPREADING SOUTH...SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE NORTH. HIGHS IN
THE 40S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS...MOSTLY AS SNOW EXCEPT RAIN LOWEST ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE COAST. LOWS 20S TO LOWER 30S.
.MONDAY...DECREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE NORTH. COLD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED COLD. LOWS IN THE 20S...LOCALLY
MID TEENS. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.
.WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN. LOWS 25 TO 35. 
HIGHS 35 TO 45.
.THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH WITH SNOW MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SOUTH. LOWS 30S. HIGHS 40S TO LOWER 50S.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Since we’re sitting here in the dark ages, here was the afternoon forecast from PDXNWS on 2/11/95…

STATE FORECAST FOR OREGON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
300 PM PST SAT FEB 11 1995

ORZ001>007-013-121100-
STATE FORECAST FOR WESTERN OREGON          
300 PM PST SAT FEB 11 1995

...SNOW ADVISORY NORTH CASCADES FOR TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH WITH LOCAL HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS
CASCADES. INCREASING CLOUDS FAR SOUTH OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH.
LOWS UPPER 20S TO NEAR 40. 
.SUNDAY...RAIN LIKELY NORTH SPREADING SOUTH...SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE NORTH. HIGHS IN
THE 40S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS...MOSTLY AS SNOW EXCEPT RAIN LOWEST ELEVATIONS
ALONG THE COAST. LOWS 20S TO LOWER 30S.
.MONDAY...DECREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE NORTH. COLD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED COLD. LOWS IN THE 20S...LOCALLY
MID TEENS. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.
.WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW...CHANGING TO RAIN. LOWS 25 TO 35. 
HIGHS 35 TO 45.
.THURSDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH WITH SNOW MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SOUTH. LOWS 30S. HIGHS 40S TO LOWER 50S.

Yeah, that one kind of developed into a lot more than what was expected. I was doing a lot of wishcasting at the time, but I remember standing on one of the sky bridges at the Salem Center Mall on the afternoon of the 11th, looking at the bank thermometer reading 48. Didn't have a lot of hope at that point. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

43 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

looks like we might be waiting another hour...at least

So they were doing software upgrades that killed their network. Cool.

Or something failed, they replaced failure but now the upgrade to correct version is taking a long time?

Either way, some sysadmin is panicking right now.

[MossMan]

Haven’t seen any posts from Brian in Leavenworth lately…Hope all is well…

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, that one kind of developed into a lot more than what was expected. I was doing a lot of wishcasting at the time, but I remember standing on one of the sky bridges at the Salem Center Mall on the afternoon of the 11th, looking at the bank thermometer reading 48. Didn't have a lot of hope at that point. 

I remember being slightly inebriated the night before and had absolutely no clue what we’d wake up to on Sunday. I didn’t have any access to models at that point but I think it was maybe that summer that I discovered the MRF. It’s been all downhill from there.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Speaking of all downhill from here, suns out now

[TigerWoodsLibido]

39F in Springfield but still 34F at EUG.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Speaking of all downhill from here, suns out now

Knot here Jesse!

Come on up, I’ll put on a pot pie!

[FroYoBro]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Speaking of all downhill from here, suns out now

The last two days have been beautiful. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

39F in Springfield but still 34F at EUG.

They should replace that station with a replica of the warm leaning DLS one so it lines up with everything better.

#purgetheNWofcoldrurualstationsingoodradiationalcoolingspots

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

The last two days have been beautiful. 

Some colder mornings would have made them nice. Afternoons have been mostly cloudy too, just enough sunbreaks at peak heating to maximize warmth.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

39F in Springfield but still 34F at EUG.

Just FYI your noontime temperature is colder than my minimum was!

[Cascadia_Wx]

I really was enjoying the pattern around this time last January.

[Omegaraptor]

11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

39F in Springfield but still 34F at EUG.

36 at CVO after a low of 28 and still socked in.

Looks like BURNS dropped below zero again this morning. Meanwhile Brookings is at 64.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice day out there! Very good 12z runs this morning cold and snowy with a classic arctic front surging south Saturday night on the GFS. Ensembles bit colder too. I just got a peek of the 12z Euro NOT BAD. 850s -13c PDX, -18c The Dalles, 2-4" of snow. I'll take it. Nah. 18z GFS in 1 hour 32 minutes

Dad joke: No wonder the 12z Euro isn't running. That sure is a bunch of bologna!

[BLI snowman]

36 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Who else was on the call?

Taylor Swift, who has issued a cease and desist letter to the folks at ECMWF for trying to copy 1989. 

[BLI snowman]

15 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

The last two days have been beautiful. 

Been a lot of low level gunk leftover here. I severely miss severe clear. 

[FroYoBro]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Some colder mornings would have made them nice. Afternoons have been mostly cloudy too, just enough sunbreaks at peak heating to maximize warmth.

It’s been sunnier here. Good sun breaks yesterday afternoon and been mostly sunny today so far. 
 

A couple of degrees difference in the afternoon or morning in a short-lived pattern like this isn’t very important to me. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Now the delay extended until 21h00 GMT.

[MossMan]

No sun here. Moderate drizzle and 40…My favorite! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

It’s been sunnier here. Good sun breaks yesterday afternoon and been mostly sunny today so far. 
 

A couple of degrees difference in the afternoon or morning in a short-lived pattern like this isn’t very important to me. 

Nice! I enjoy following the little stuff like this. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, MossMan said:

No sun here. Moderate drizzle and 40…My favorite! 

12z Euro shows that truck buried in snow before Valentines Day.

[LowerGarfield]

When did the officially move from the UK? I know due to Brexit but when? Kind of interesting that the UK had both Euro and UKMET.

[BLI snowman]

Goofus is King now. Long live the Euro.

[Christensen87]

15 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Taylor Swift, who has issued a cease and desist letter to the folks at ECMWF for trying to copy 1989. 

Great album. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like a lot of estrogen in here all of a sudden.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We'll have to call this a terrible Tuesday. No Euro just saves us from the pain. Pattern is so close to greatness, but the block just floats off into the ether. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Story of OUR LIVES. 

[dhoffine]

1 hour ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Just got off a big conference call with the EURO's CEO. It's showing 10 inches for Seattle and 6 inches for Portland ending Monday. He said to prepare. Get your TP now and pick up plenty of yule logs.

 

This is post feels like when my wife tells me to expect some fun that night... just a tease.  Is this even a legit post?  

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm sure this has been posted, but the 12z UKMET looks a lot like the GFS

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We'll have to call this a terrible Tuesday. No Euro just saves us from the pain. Pattern is so close to greatness, but the block just floats off into the ether. 

Things will probably bottom out tomorrow followed by resolved focus on the short term on Thursday after permablast potential lament has worn off.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Perma heatwaves happen with ease. Not so much perma blasts.

[Weiner Warrior]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Who else was on the call?

We had Cliff Mass, Michael Jackson, and God all on the call. Michael kept telling Cliff to beat it and Cliff kept telling God the pavement is too warm.

[SnarkyGoblin]

2 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

We had Cliff Mass, Michael Jackson, and God all on the call. Michael kept telling Cliff to beat it and Cliff kept telling God the pavement is too warm.

Definitely someone's second account.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

54 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

36 at CVO after a low of 28 and still socked in.

Looks like BURNS dropped below zero again this morning. Meanwhile Brookings is at 64.

Brookings would be a fun place to live just for the random outbreaks of localized extreme torching.

[TT-SEA]

Getting choppy updates of 12Z ECMWF on Tropical Tidbits.   Hour 72 is available... looks like slight shift east.

 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Getting choppy updates of 12Z ECMWF on Tropical Tidbits.   Hour 72 is available... looks like slight shift east.

 

Funny that it's only on tidbits.