PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[snow_wizard]

Out of the three ensemble means on the 12z runs the GEM was the best.  Interestingly the GEM, ECMWF, and GFS operational runs all had 850s dropping to -11 or lower early next week.  That's impressive for a possible event that far out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

This forecast from KPTV in 2008 is fun to look at. Didn't realize he used to be that aggressive.

Oh yeah, mid-90s he was off the charts aggressive. I think he learned a lot from the December 1996 fail. 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Even late January 1996 was primarily low level and the onset then was pretty similar to what occurred on 2/5/14. It was 26 here that afternoon without a cloud in the sky and screaming downslope winds.

Reminds me that 1996 had the potential to go the 2014 route. I remember Jesse-friendly Mark on Saturday morning the 27th was going with a high of 22 at heavy snow for the 30th. I think he was drunk on the snow that fell that morning.

The January 1996 event was really nice where I was living at the time.  The only time since I've been keeping records that January dropped below 10 and there was snow going into it.

[Deweydog]

Hard to believe he’s coming up on 30 years.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Out of the three ensemble means on the 12z runs the GEM was the best.  Interestingly the GEM, ECMWF, and GFS operational runs all had 850s dropping to -11 or lower early next week.  That's impressive for a possible event that far out.

850mb temp right now is -6C.   

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh yeah, mid-90s he was off the charts aggressive. I think he learned a lot from the December 1996 fail. 

I lucked out in Dec 1996.  I was living in an area where the event was all snow.  Where I am now a lot of it was ZR.  I remember the forecasts were blown up here too.  They initially had the main snow zone further south than what verified.

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

850mb temp right now is -6C.   

Salem hasn't had an 850mb temp below -10.5c since December 2013

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I lucked out in Dec 1996.  I was living in an area where the event was all snow.  Where I am now a lot of it was ZR.  I remember the forecasts were blown up here too.  They initially had the main snow zone further south than what verified.

It was pretty disappointing down here. We did have a little snow a couple days after Christmas. That was about it. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

850mb temp right now is -6C.   

This is a chilly trough alright.  With the coming event the models are showing it being much more continental which makes a big difference.

[Deweydog]

18z looking VERY similar to the 12z so far.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Doinko said:

Salem hasn't had an 850mb temp below -10.5c since December 2013

That is crazy.    I had to check what it was today and was surprised how cold it was aloft.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Salem hasn't had an 850mb temp below -10.5c since December 2013

December 2016, February 2018, and December 2021 got to about -10C though. Salem hasn't had an 850mb temp below -10C in January since 1982... 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

18z looking VERY similar to the 12z so far.

Holding its ground at 18 hours!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

That is crazy.    I had to check what it was today and was surprised how cold it was aloft.  

It snowed an inch here yesterday, we had a 36/27 day and only 40/29 today. Solidly chilly for late January even up here. More moderated at the lower levels, due to what Jim mentioned, lack of continental flavor. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Finally just looked at the 12z GEFS. Looks quite a bit better than the 06z overall...

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

December 2016, February 2018, and December 2021 got to about -10C though. Salem hasn't had an 850mb temp below -10C in January since 1982... 

February 2022 also got to around -10C I think. What did that early January 2017 airmass and the 2007 one get down to?

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It snowed an inch here yesterday, we had a 36/27 day and only 40/29 today. Solidly chilly for late January even up here. More moderated at the lower levels, due to what Jim mentioned, lack of continental flavor. 

42/28 and 43/35 here respectively.  Not terrible, and I expect the low will be improved upon this evening.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

February 2022 also got to around -10C I think. What did that early January 2017 airmass and the 2007 one get down to?

Oh yeah, I think you are right about last February. Another great airmass. If we only end up with something like that coming up here in the next couple of weeks I would call it a win. That airmass a few weeks earlier could have put up some 34/16 type days in the WV. 

Silver Falls got down to 14, and we got down to 15 here. 

2017 and 2007 were probably around -8/-9C. 2012 was like -9.5C too. January 2020 actually bottomed out below -9C too I believe. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

27 minutes ago, Doinko said:

This forecast from KPTV in 2008 is fun to look at. Didn't realize he used to be that aggressive.

I remember that one very well. “Arctic Blast All Week!” Of course PDX ended up never even falling below 20 and there was a warm up close to 40 somewhere in the middle of that forecast period.

Still ended up being a great period of winter weather of course, snowiest December on record at PDX. But a long period of sustained arctic air with cold lows like this will always be a white whale for me.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I remember that one very well. “Arctic Blast All Week!” Of course PDX ended up never even falling below 20 and there was a warm up close to 40 somewhere in the middle of that forecast period.

Still ended up being a great period of winter weather of course, snowiest December on record at PDX. But a long period of sustained arctic air with cold lows like this will always be the white whale for me.

I will always say that month left a lot on the table. 

[LowerGarfield]

A couple of boring trace photos from 9am this morning.

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will always say that month left a lot on the table. 

Definitely in the 1-13 and 26-31 periods.

Edited January 22, 2023 by Deweydog

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I remember that one very well. “Arctic Blast All Week!” Of course PDX ended up never even falling below 20 and there was a warm up close to 40 somewhere in the middle of that forecast period.

Still ended up being a great period of winter weather of course, snowiest December on record at PDX. But a long period of sustained arctic air with cold lows like this will always be a white whale for me.

January 2017 kind of got there. Only about half the snow of December 2008 probably here (13" vs I'm guessing 25" from reports) but it was on the ground for a week of sunny skies and cold lows.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wonder if PDX will be able to pull off sub-50 highs the rest of the month. I think Wednesday/Thursday will be the closest calls. Regardless 54 should remain their top end, which would be their coolest January max since 2017.

Good lord. Are they going to do it today?

 

Edited January 22, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

January 2017 kind of got there. Only about half the snow of December 2008 probably here (13" vs I'm guessing 25" from reports) but it was on the ground for a week of sunny skies and cold lows.

It was definitely close. Some sub-25 highs would have done the trick, of course there wasn’t a ton of actual arctic air nearby for any of that sequence, just a bunch of low level cold, a suppressed jet, and some fantastic timing.

[TT-SEA]

Block getting pinched more on the 18Z next weekend.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Block getting pinched more on the 18Z next weekend.

Just gets plowed into before it can really establish itself that early

[Deweydog]

DON’T LOOK!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Just gets plowed into before it can really establish itself that early

More in line with what the EPS showed with that trough weakening the block before it can really establish itself.

[Deweydog]

Judah…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Just gets plowed into before it can really establish itself that early

May open up some chilly NW flow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So far I don't hate the 18z. 

[Deweydog]

Just when we get the CFS on our side…

[snow_wizard]

Pretty cool sat pic today.  You can see Douglas County (just north and east of the center of the state) in all of it's white glory and also see that a good part of Banks Lake is frozen over in spite of the warm first half of January.

 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

So far I don't hate the 18z. 

Some of details go a little wonky, but all within the normal wiggle room these things usually have.

Kind of interesting that both the 12z and 18z GFS are less impressive with the initial blocking structure than the ECMWF and GEM...

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty cool sat pic today.  You can see Douglas County (just north and east of the center of the state) in all of it's white glory and also see that a good part of Banks Lake is frozen over in spite of the warm first half of January.

 

Even over in Pullman its 27 and sort of foggy with snow on the ground.   

[Phishy Wx]

^^^^^kinda looks like that here, except its 31

[RentonHill]

At this point in 2019 we were throwing in the towel. eerily similar timing...

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

I like where it’s going. 

After about day 7 or 8 we have exhausted any value the 18Z run can offer.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z looks fine to me, still pretty chilly overall.