PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Cascadia_Wx]

40 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hasn’t happened yet so we ll see.

That 72-96 hour timeframe has proved DEADLY for arctic blasts in recent years.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably better snow chances PDX south. 

There’s some 12/14/08 vibes right now.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, fubario said:

NWS Seattle discussion from 3:30pm...not onboard for snow accumulations.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Model ensembles remain in
decent agreement in the evolution of the upper air pattern
towards the weekend and beginning of next week. Extensive
troughing appears likely over the region. This in concert with
surface high pressure in place over interior BC and a low center
developing offshore Saturday night into Sunday may lead to Fraser
Outflow emanating across the CWA. Confidence is leaning towards
this set up pushing a modified arctic front from north to south
across Western Washington leading to well-below average
temperatures through at least Tuesday. Snow levels will also
bottom out below 500 ft during this time but questions remain on
if moisture will be available for any lowland snow potential. If
manifests, confidence on accumulation is not high but totals are
leaning towards the lower side.

McMillian

Think dust storms and blowing tumbleweeds in the Fraser Valley, C'MON!

[thickhog]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That 72-96 hour timeframe has proved DEADLY for arctic blasts in recent years.

I need to feel the bitter cold on my bare nipples before believing. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There’s some 12/14/08 vibes right now.

You mean this coming weekend compared to the 12/14/08 event or the overall progression afterwards?     The 18Z GFS was December 2008ish.

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There’s some 12/14/08 vibes right now.

i  was thinking the same thing. 

[RentonHill]

  

On 12/15/2022 at 12:02 PM, RentonHill said:

For no reason whatsoever

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That 72-96 hour timeframe has proved DEADLY for arctic blasts in recent years.

Yeah obviously the -16C is the euro doing euro things.

[RentonHill]

[Deweydog]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You mean this coming weekend compared to the 12/14/08 event or the overall progression afterwards?     The 18Z GFS was December 2008ish.

One step at a time. The initial block seems like it will probably float poleward. Quite a bit of support for it on the models and it’s been a pretty consistent theme here for several years now.

The Sunday pattern has some potential to be similar at least, depending on how far west the vort max decides to set up shop. Given the longwave favorability consistently shown right now, it’s hard to imagine that thing won’t have an opportunity to develop pretty rapidly. Either way, most models currently show a quick ramp up of offshore flow while there is still some decent lift around for favored areas.

Edited January 25 by Deweydog

[RentonHill]

Yoooo last nights GFS op/control just stayed crazy all the way through day 30 lol

[Snowfan]

Hello everyone. I have been a long time lurker on this forum and I am hoping for these model outputs do trend snowier because this will be my last winter in the PNW. I appreciate all of the model analysis and information you guys have provided. I have learned alot from all of you guys. 

[Deweydog]

How do the weeklies look for Sunday?

You’d think the model able to predict the weather 42 days from now should knock five days from now out of the park.

[Phishy Wx]

Yikes

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Yoooo last nights GFS op/control just stayed crazy all the way through day 30 lol

 

10 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Looks fantastic 

[TacomaWx]

Sitting at 2.85” of rain MTD. We will likely finish with just half of normal January rainfall. Better news is the mean temp this month is down to +2.2F. The way it looks right now we might finish the month somewhere between +0.5 and +1.0. Just a hair warmer than January 2022. 

[Kolk1604]

I don't think I saw anyone post the 18z GFS 

[MossMan]

So we went from a dry barely anything brief blast to a December 2008 redux in the span of like an hour? This has got to be one of the more confusing lead ups to an event yet!! 

Edited January 25 by MossMan

[Gradient Keeper]

15 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Yikes

 

 

Ridiculous. The joys of social media. What's even worse, those are probably adults, and I can damn well remember when adults never used to act like this, or how we've seen them this progressively worsen the past 10 years online. Just the way it is. Those kind of people know there are no repercussions for anything they say, and on social media there isn't. Hiding behind a screen of anonymity and feeling entitled due to no consequences.

00z ECMWF in 2 hours 35 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I don't think I saw anyone post the 18z GFS 

It was a nice run. 

 

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So we went from a dry barely anything brief blast to a December 2008 redux in the span of like an hour? This has got to be one of the more confusing lead ups to an event yet!! 

This could be a tough one north of Longview. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It was a nice run. 

 

This could be a tough one north of Longview. 

Then why are we even mentioning 2008? where it snowed bigly every other day for two weeks straight up here…

Though I guess many of my snowfalls in 2008 were not really predicted until a day out if that so…Hmmm…

Edited January 25 by MossMan

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, MossMan said:

Then why are we even mentioning 2008? where it snowed bigly every other day for two weeks straight up here…

Jeez. How much snow did you end up with that month?

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Then why are we even mentioning 2008? where it snowed bigly every other day for two weeks straight up here…

Though I guess many of my snowfalls in 2008 were not really predicted until a day out if that so…Hmmm…

i think he was referencing a single day in that stretch lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Then why are we even mentioning 2008? where it snowed bigly every other day for two weeks straight up here…

Though I guess many of my snowfalls in 2008 were not really predicted until a day out if that so…Hmmm…

The system over the weekend has similarities to 12/14/08. 

[RentonHill]

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Jeez. How much snow did you end up with that month?

About 36” when all was said and done. And that at 280’ ASL. There was even more where I live now at 580’. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Icon off to a good start.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The system over the weekend has similarities to 12/14/08. 

Think I ended up with about 3” that day though it’s fuzzy. I only have pics well into the event where I was already buried. I do have this though! 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
359 AM PST SUN DEC 14 2008
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-
WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-
TACOMA AREA-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
359 AM PST SUN DEC 14 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST
TODAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PST TODAY.

THE COMBINATION OF SUB-FREEZING AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN
WASHINGTON FROM THE NORTH AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.

[Gradient Keeper]

You guys beat me to it. 00z ICON bit further southwest with the arctic trough might be colder and snowier.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

Road trip to Maine! 

Funny I was just looking at the Maine coast on google earth.  

I would love living there. Dämn.

[TacomaWx]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 

This could be a tough one north of Longview. 

After how many years of it being tough south of Longview I think we will be just fine  

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

i think he was referencing a single day in that stretch lol

Well I would take 3” going onto this…Like what I got on that date! Though I am seeing a lot of Euro maps as showing zilch up here. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS HR 6!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

After how many years of it being tough south of Longview I think we will be just fine  

You will at least get Kold. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

After how many years of it being tough south of Longview I think we will be just fine  

Speak for yourself buddy

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Icon is legit. 

[Gradient Keeper]

I asked my Cat if she wanted to go ahead and take over running the 00z GFS tonight, but she just looked at me and licked her butt.

I guess you're stuck with me tonight.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Speak for yourself buddy

November 29th-December 4th was pretty solid here with snow every day for 6 days straight. Then a significant arctic blast with close to 1” of snow 12/20-12/23. We’ve had 6” of snow already this season so if we get nothing I’m happy with how it played out. We still could get surprised by this pattern though and get some snow but I don’t think so. 

[Doinko]

58 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

One step at a time. The initial block seems like it will probably float poleward. Quite a bit of support for it on the models and it’s been a pretty consistent theme here for several years now.

The Sunday pattern has some potential to be similar at least, depending on how far west the vort max decides to set up shop. Given the longwave favorability consistently shown right now, it’s hard to imagine that thing won’t have an opportunity to develop pretty rapidly. Either way, most models currently show a quick ramp up of offshore flow while there is still some decent lift around for favored areas.

I checked the NWS PNS from that, looks like we had around 3.5"? That would be very nice. Was that the event Clark County missed out on?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1 (4-run trend) Cut-off/Kona low several notches to the west

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (4-run trend) Hmmm....

[Gradient Keeper]

IR/WV Imagery, 00z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis

Somehow I missed this massive 943mb(27.85 in) low near Kamchatka. Impressive.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Uh oh…

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend) base of the block several notches south with more width overall. Kona low further west. Aleutian low several notches stronger.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3.5 (4-run trend) Where exactly is the block going? Weird seeing it so much further south. Aleutian ridge healthy and seeming to merge with the block.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend) Block is enormous this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 3.5 (4-run trend) Where exactly is the block going? Weird seeing it so much further south. Aleutian ridge healthy and seeming to merge with the block.

I can tell you what the result short term is going to be…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Colder shot, less snow. Let’s see the implications later on.