PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It seems like its basically locked in now through day 6... any changes will probably be just slight wobbles.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

At this point the snow is the biggest question mark.   As always.

Just a little too far east overall it looks like. Really need to see things have a little better positioning for snow…although a surprise snow wouldn’t be shocking. Always is a thread the needle situation to get snow. Little too far east and it’s cold with no snow…little too far west chilly rain below 500’. 

[Slushy Inch]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It seems like its basically locked in now through day 6... any changes will probably be just slight wobbles.

Congrats EPS is worse!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably better snow chances PDX south. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z GFS was fun 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Congrats EPS is worse!

Only a wobble... 00Z run will wobble back.

[Requiem]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Congrats EPS is worse!

Not really enough to be any sort of concerning change

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-6 departure at Salem and Eugene today.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Only a wobble... 00Z run will wobble back.

It’s definitely going to get cold at this point. But will it be highs in the mid 30s or maybe upper 20s to around freezing? I wouldn’t be surprised if many places had high temps right around the freezing mark but SEA manages to get above freezing still. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow 12z euro bottomed out at -16.2 C at PDX . Brrrrr 

[Phishy Wx]

not bad, kinda dry

 

 

[snow_wizard]

SSW will complete in 3 or 4 days now.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s definitely going to get cold at this point. But will it be highs in the mid 30s or maybe upper 20s to around freezing? I wouldn’t be surprised if many places had high temps right around the freezing mark but SEA manages to get above freezing still. 

SEA will do fine if the surface winds are northerly as opposed to east.

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Not really enough to be any sort of concerning change

Well at this point GEFS has way more snow. Now that I look at, it may partly be because GEFS is a little slower moving the trough out.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow 12z euro bottomed out at -16.2 C at PDX . Brrrrr 

First notable late January blast since 1996.  Another one that had snow BTW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

First notable late January blast since 1996.  Another one that had snow BTW.

Hasn’t happened yet so we ll see.

[Terreboner2]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My Seahawks predictions proved to be more realistic than yours... they would be 17-0 and marching into the Super Bowl if you were right.   But of course that is not life in the real world.  

They would be 0-17 and never make the playoffs if you were correct, so there's that.

I actually expected them to go 6-11 before the season started, but I also am optimistic when a team is overperforming, which they were.

This ho-hum, we are losing crap, in the 1st quarter of every game is very nauseating.  Your hyperbole is 100 times as bad as mine.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

They would be 0-17 and never make the playoffs if you were correct, so there's that.

I actually expected them to go 6-11 before the season started, but I also am optimistic when a team is overperforming, which they were.

This ho-hum, we are losing crap, in the 1st quarter of every game is very nauseating.  Your hyperbole is 100 times as bad as mine.

Glad I'm a 9ers' fan.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Nice

[SnowWillarrive]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably better snow chances PDX south. 

Mossman has something to say about that 

[snow_wizard]

Seems like an extension on the cold pattern from what models are showing now is pretty possible.

[Terreboner2]

1 minute ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Glad I'm a 9ers' fan.

That's blasphemy.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Terreboner2 said:

They would be 0-17 and never make the playoffs if you were correct, so there's that.

I actually expected them to go 6-11 before the season started, but I also am optimistic when a team is overperforming, which they were.

This ho-hum, we are losing crap, in the 1st quarter of every game is very nauseating.  Your hyperbole is 100 times as bad as mine.

That is just how Randy and I deal with Seahawks games... particularly over the last few years of mediocrity.   Assume the worst and be pleasantly surprised at times.   But they were better than I expected.   

[NWbyNW]

Sideways rain, blustering wind, large waves.  Seems like a fine time to visit the Washington Coast right now.  

[Poulsbo Snowman]

LOL.  I was a 9er's fan long before the Seahawks were born.  But to be fair, I've probably been to 50 hawks games over the years.

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is just how Randy and I deal with Seahawks games... particularly over the last few years of mediocrity.   Assume the worst and be pleasantly surprised at times.   But they were better than I expected.   

I need to do this with Ohio State football. I’m tired of losing 

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

LOL.  I was a 9er's fan long before the Seahawks were born.  But to be fair, I've probably been to 50 hawks games over the years.

I am a Niners fan right now.   Want them to go through the same hangover that the Rams had this year. 

[RentonHill]

the extended GEFS control run from last night starts show a very similar setup to this weekend by mid Feb

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

the extended GEFS control run from last night starts show a very similar setup to this weekend by mid Feb

that's the repeat

 

Cold > Moderation > Wetter/Snowier? > Cold reload

[RentonHill]

[Terreboner2]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Seems like an extension on the cold pattern from that models are showing now is pretty possible.

Finally some positivity in a large room of wrist slitters.

[Terreboner2]

12 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

that's the repeat

 

Cold > Moderation > Wetter/Snowier? > Cold reload

Need that SE ridge though.  Probably why this one isn't lasting long.

[Cascadia_Wx]

40 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hasn’t happened yet so we ll see.

That 72-96 hour timeframe has proved DEADLY for arctic blasts in recent years.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably better snow chances PDX south. 

There’s some 12/14/08 vibes right now.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, fubario said:

NWS Seattle discussion from 3:30pm...not onboard for snow accumulations.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Model ensembles remain in
decent agreement in the evolution of the upper air pattern
towards the weekend and beginning of next week. Extensive
troughing appears likely over the region. This in concert with
surface high pressure in place over interior BC and a low center
developing offshore Saturday night into Sunday may lead to Fraser
Outflow emanating across the CWA. Confidence is leaning towards
this set up pushing a modified arctic front from north to south
across Western Washington leading to well-below average
temperatures through at least Tuesday. Snow levels will also
bottom out below 500 ft during this time but questions remain on
if moisture will be available for any lowland snow potential. If
manifests, confidence on accumulation is not high but totals are
leaning towards the lower side.

McMillian

Think dust storms and blowing tumbleweeds in the Fraser Valley, C'MON!

[thickhog]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That 72-96 hour timeframe has proved DEADLY for arctic blasts in recent years.

I need to feel the bitter cold on my bare nipples before believing. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There’s some 12/14/08 vibes right now.

You mean this coming weekend compared to the 12/14/08 event or the overall progression afterwards?     The 18Z GFS was December 2008ish.

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There’s some 12/14/08 vibes right now.

i  was thinking the same thing. 

[RentonHill]

  

On 12/15/2022 at 12:02 PM, RentonHill said:

For no reason whatsoever

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That 72-96 hour timeframe has proved DEADLY for arctic blasts in recent years.

Yeah obviously the -16C is the euro doing euro things.

[RentonHill]

[Deweydog]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You mean this coming weekend compared to the 12/14/08 event or the overall progression afterwards?     The 18Z GFS was December 2008ish.

One step at a time. The initial block seems like it will probably float poleward. Quite a bit of support for it on the models and it’s been a pretty consistent theme here for several years now.

The Sunday pattern has some potential to be similar at least, depending on how far west the vort max decides to set up shop. Given the longwave favorability consistently shown right now, it’s hard to imagine that thing won’t have an opportunity to develop pretty rapidly. Either way, most models currently show a quick ramp up of offshore flow while there is still some decent lift around for favored areas.

Edited Wednesday at 02:47 AM by Deweydog

[RentonHill]

Yoooo last nights GFS op/control just stayed crazy all the way through day 30 lol

[Snowfan]

Hello everyone. I have been a long time lurker on this forum and I am hoping for these model outputs do trend snowier because this will be my last winter in the PNW. I appreciate all of the model analysis and information you guys have provided. I have learned alot from all of you guys. 

[Deweydog]

How do the weeklies look for Sunday?

You’d think the model able to predict the weather 42 days from now should knock five days from now out of the park.

[Phishy Wx]

Yikes

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Yoooo last nights GFS op/control just stayed crazy all the way through day 30 lol

 

10 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Looks fantastic 

[TacomaWx]

Sitting at 2.85” of rain MTD. We will likely finish with just half of normal January rainfall. Better news is the mean temp this month is down to +2.2F. The way it looks right now we might finish the month somewhere between +0.5 and +1.0. Just a hair warmer than January 2022. 

[Kolk1604]

I don't think I saw anyone post the 18z GFS 

[MossMan]

So we went from a dry barely anything brief blast to a December 2008 redux in the span of like an hour? This has got to be one of the more confusing lead ups to an event yet!! 

Edited Wednesday at 03:12 AM by MossMan