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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

At this point the snow is the biggest question mark.   As always.

Just a little too far east overall it looks like. Really need to see things have a little better positioning for snow…although a surprise snow wouldn’t be shocking. Always is a thread the needle situation to get snow. Little too far east and it’s cold with no snow…little too far west chilly rain below 500’. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.86”

Wet season rainfall-16.35”

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  • Longtimer

Probably better snow chances PDX south. 

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  • Snow 1
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

18z GFS was fun 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Congrats EPS is worse!

Not really enough to be any sort of concerning change 🙏

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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  • Longtimer

-6 departure at Salem and Eugene today.

  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Only a wobble... 00Z run will wobble back.

It’s definitely going to get cold at this point. But will it be highs in the mid 30s or maybe upper 20s to around freezing? I wouldn’t be surprised if many places had high temps right around the freezing mark but SEA manages to get above freezing still. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.86”

Wet season rainfall-16.35”

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  • Longtimer

Wow 12z euro bottomed out at -16.2 C at PDX . Brrrrr 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s definitely going to get cold at this point. But will it be highs in the mid 30s or maybe upper 20s to around freezing? I wouldn’t be surprised if many places had high temps right around the freezing mark but SEA manages to get above freezing still. 

SEA will do fine if the surface winds are northerly as opposed to east.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow 12z euro bottomed out at -16.2 C at PDX . Brrrrr 

First notable late January blast since 1996.  Another one that had snow BTW.

  • Shivering 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

First notable late January blast since 1996.  Another one that had snow BTW.

Hasn’t happened yet so we ll see.

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My Seahawks predictions proved to be more realistic than yours... they would be 17-0 and marching into the Super Bowl if you were right.   But of course that is not life in the real world.  😀

They would be 0-17 and never make the playoffs if you were correct, so there's that.

I actually expected them to go 6-11 before the season started, but I also am optimistic when a team is overperforming, which they were.

This ho-hum, we are losing crap, in the 1st quarter of every game is very nauseating.  Your hyperbole is 100 times as bad as mine.

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2 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

They would be 0-17 and never make the playoffs if you were correct, so there's that.

I actually expected them to go 6-11 before the season started, but I also am optimistic when a team is overperforming, which they were.

This ho-hum, we are losing crap, in the 1st quarter of every game is very nauseating.  Your hyperbole is 100 times as bad as mine.

Glad I'm a 9ers' fan.

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Seems like an extension on the cold pattern from what models are showing now is pretty possible.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

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  • Staff
1 minute ago, Terreboner2 said:

They would be 0-17 and never make the playoffs if you were correct, so there's that.

I actually expected them to go 6-11 before the season started, but I also am optimistic when a team is overperforming, which they were.

This ho-hum, we are losing crap, in the 1st quarter of every game is very nauseating.  Your hyperbole is 100 times as bad as mine.

That is just how Randy and I deal with Seahawks games... particularly over the last few years of mediocrity.   Assume the worst and be pleasantly surprised at times.   But they were better than I expected.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is just how Randy and I deal with Seahawks games... particularly over the last few years of mediocrity.   Assume the worst and be pleasantly surprised at times.   But they were better than I expected.   

I need to do this with Ohio State football. I’m tired of losing 

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  • Staff
18 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

LOL.  I was a 9er's fan long before the Seahawks were born.  But to be fair, I've probably been to 50 hawks games over the years.

I am a Niners fan right now.   Want them to go through the same hangover that the Rams had this year. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, fubario said:

NWS Seattle discussion from 3:30pm...not onboard for snow accumulations.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Model ensembles remain in
decent agreement in the evolution of the upper air pattern
towards the weekend and beginning of next week. Extensive
troughing appears likely over the region. This in concert with
surface high pressure in place over interior BC and a low center
developing offshore Saturday night into Sunday may lead to Fraser
Outflow emanating across the CWA. Confidence is leaning towards
this set up pushing a modified arctic front from north to south
across Western Washington leading to well-below average
temperatures through at least Tuesday. Snow levels will also
bottom out below 500 ft during this time but questions remain on
if moisture will be available for any lowland snow potential. If
manifests, confidence on accumulation is not high but totals are
leaning towards the lower side.

McMillian

Think dust storms and blowing tumbleweeds in the Fraser Valley, C'MON!

  • lol 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

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  • Staff
8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There’s some 12/14/08 vibes right now.

You mean this coming weekend compared to the 12/14/08 event or the overall progression afterwards?     The 18Z GFS was December 2008ish.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
23 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That 72-96 hour timeframe has proved DEADLY for arctic blasts in recent years.

Yeah obviously the -16C is the euro doing euro things.

  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You mean this coming weekend compared to the 12/14/08 event or the overall progression afterwards?     The 18Z GFS was December 2008ish.

One step at a time. The initial block seems like it will probably float poleward. Quite a bit of support for it on the models and it’s been a pretty consistent theme here for several years now.

The Sunday pattern has some potential to be similar at least, depending on how far west the vort max decides to set up shop. Given the longwave favorability consistently shown right now, it’s hard to imagine that thing won’t have an opportunity to develop pretty rapidly. Either way, most models currently show a quick ramp up of offshore flow while there is still some decent lift around for favored areas.

Edited by Deweydog
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  • Snow 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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  • Longtimer
6 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Yoooo last nights GFS op/control just stayed crazy all the way through day 30 lol

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-c00-namer-z500_anom-1674518400-1675555200-1677283200-40.gif

 

10 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1674518400-1675641600-1677196800-40.gif

Looks fantastic 

  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Sitting at 2.85” of rain MTD. We will likely finish with just half of normal January rainfall. Better news is the mean temp this month is down to +2.2F. The way it looks right now we might finish the month somewhere between +0.5 and +1.0. Just a hair warmer than January 2022. 

  • Rain 1

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-9

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-19

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-2.86”

Wet season rainfall-16.35”

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  • Longtimer

So we went from a dry barely anything brief blast to a December 2008 redux in the span of like an hour? This has got to be one of the more confusing lead ups to an event yet!! 

Edited by MossMan
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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