PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Doinko]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

No model agreement after Day 3 with the 00z GFS, GEM. Volatility is increasing with this pattern.

I feel like aside from the GFS the GEM, Euro and ICON all are in decent agreement. Just the GFS all on its own

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[SouthHillFrosty]

Whatcom special at 192hr

[Deweydog]

Anyone staying up til 1:30 for the Euro?

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8

It's just been sitting up there taunting us for several frames now.

[Gummy]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Lovely overrunning event on this run after the cold is already in place.  Tasty!

Not a great spot for the low placement, but it could maybe give a few inches before a changeover.  Still a better option than the depressing ECMWF set up that gives no snow.

[BLI snowman]

ICON actually looked pretty good for a quick Portland snowstorm this weekend. Very 2/12/95 esque

This

and this

 

would almost certainly be snow to the north of that little low as it drops down the coast, but we know the ICON sucks with precip type.

[SpaceRace22]

Well the good news is, this is by far the coldest run yet for BC, with 850s flirting with -40C in the northern half of the province. Bad news is, I'm not sure it's ever going to make it south of the border on this run.

[Doinko]

Could someone post a weatherbell map of coldest 850mb temps in NW OR on the GEM? Slightly hard to tell with Pivotal

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Could someone post a weatherbell map of coldest 850mb temps in NW OR? Slightly hard to tell with Pivotal

This is the coldest it gets, and it's short lived.

[SouthHillFrosty]

What snow, how about 50 degrees

[Doinko]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

This is the coldest it gets, and it's short lived.

Wow, way warmer than Euro or GEM. How's the GEM?

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Wow, way warmer than Euro or GEM. How's the GEM?

GEM is in a completely different universe (in a good way). It's only out to hr 144 on Weatherbell right now, but this is the best so far.

 

[Gummy]

GFS has now caved to the euro with + 850s by Thursday. What a janky model.

 

[Deweydog]

Border Patrol patrolling.

[Phishy Wx]

lol at goofus

i'm serious, wtf?

[Christensen87]

GFS showing more cold air coming in next Friday? Hmmm. 

[SpaceRace22]

The GEM led the way over both the Euro and the GFS with the general pattern change here, so I am going to choose to believe that it's continuing to lead the way with its extended, full blown arctic blast with no end in sight.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol at goofus

i'm serious, wtf?

Right? lol

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Day 10-12 might be decent on the GFS. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Back to snow!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gummy]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Back to snow!

Isn't that just a cold onshore flow scenario that hits those above 500'?

[SpaceRace22]

Everyone from PDX to BLI gets buried  a few disappointing inches in the frames immediately after hour 240.

[Doinko]

UKMET shows some snow

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 4.5

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Isn't that just a cold onshore flow scenario that hits those above 500'?

Onsho' for sho'

Maybe some scattered blessings for the sea level dwellers that but would not be a major snow setup for the valleys.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Hard call at this point.  All I can say is most late January cold waves have snow with them.  Not all but most.

And led by the Granddaddy of them all January 1969.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

UKMET shows some snow

 

That’s a lot more than the 00z. How cold does it get?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Late January 1980 did not have snow here. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

UKMET shows some snow

 

The 00z trended colder as well compared to the 12z:

12z:

00z:

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Late January 1980 did not have snow here. 

Late every January since 2009 did not have snow here.

[Cold Snap]

Thought this was pretty interesting.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Late January 1980 did not have snow here. 

We had a quick 1-2" overrunning snow event here on the 31st, but I believe the Marion County foothills got licked by the warm tongue 

[SouthHillFrosty]

The gfs is showing a classic for WA 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 5.5 850s (4-run trend)

[Doinko]

Mark Nelsen's thoughts

 

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS Trending colder
PDX -9.3c, The Dalles -15.9c

I want colder though sorta greedy..

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

We had a quick 1-2" overrunning snow event here on the 31st, but I believe the Marion County foothills got licked by the warm tongue 

Silver Falls hit 1 with that cold snap. Pretty amazing we can have a massive arctic blast and no snow and then score accumulating snow on days like last Wednesday and Saturday .

[High Desert Mat?]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Mark Nelsen's thoughts

 

Take that for what it’s worth. He pretty spot on with whatever is coming usually. Emotions don’t play a role in his world. 

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

I'm still kinda traumatized from then February 2021 Ice Storm. Imagine if we have a repeat of that, February strikes twice. Would be devastating for the trees and power. Hope we just have lots of snow and deep cold. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Nvm it was a classic for Portland! Stays in the perfect location and buries them!

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Silver Falls hit 1 with that cold snap. Pretty amazing we can have a massive arctic blast and no snow and then score accumulating snow on days like last Wednesday and Saturday .

Yeah, definitely some of the most impressive bare-ground lows on record in western OR with that one. Similar to December 2009 or January 1974.

Edited January 25 by BLI snowman

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ends on a chilly note. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Take that for what it’s worth. He pretty spot on with whatever is coming usually. Emotions don’t play a role in his world. 

He pretty much nailed the ice storm in December in terms of temps and exactly when we'd warm up. No other met came close really

[Doinko]

55 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

ICON actually looked pretty good for a quick Portland snowstorm this weekend. Very 2/12/95 esque

This

and this

 

would almost certainly be snow to the north of that little low as it drops down the coast, but we know the ICON sucks with precip type.

I think I'm sitting in an okay position for anything Saturday night. A 2/12/1995 repeat would be amazing. From that video posted earlier it looked like some places in the metro area had 12-14" in SW PDX?

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I think I'm sitting in an okay position for anything Saturday night. A 2/12/1995 repeat would be amazing. From that video posted earlier it looked like some places in the metro area had 12-14"?

The West Hills got pounded.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Severe cutback on the GEFS