PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

The West Hills got pounded.

How much snow in those areas?

[Deweydog]

Just now, Doinko said:

How much snow in those areas?

12-14 inches.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

I don't think I saw anyone post the 18z GFS 

Now if the Euro comes on board for solutions like that, then it’s time to get excited.

[MossMan]

.22” so far on the day, 3.53” for the month. 
41/37

Currently 40 and moderate drizzle which hasn’t changed at all the entire day. 

[BLI snowman]

16 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I think I'm sitting in an okay position for anything Saturday night. A 2/12/1995 repeat would be amazing. From that video posted earlier it looked like some places in the metro area had 12-14"?

Yeah, SW Portland up through downtown had 10+" and areas in the hills had up to 14".

Had about 6" where I was in Salmon Creek. Cleared out and got down to 12 on the 14th.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Severe cutback on the GEFS

Severe cutbacks up north. 

[Doinko]

Canadian ensembles are significantly colder

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Severe cutbacks up north. 

What’s the opposite of feeling blessed? 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, MossMan said:

What’s the opposite of feeling blessed? 

Cursed. Or perhaps damned.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

.22” so far on the day, 3.53” for the month. 
41/37

Currently 40 and moderate drizzle which hasn’t changed at all the entire day. 

All-day drizzle up this way, too.

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

What’s the opposite of feeling blessed? 

Called living in the swamp

[Deweydog]

Sending loads of prayers to you guyz up north.

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Canadian ensembles are significantly colder

Oh ya?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

GFS operational, on the other hand, looks awesome. Folks to the south might disagree with that assertion.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

GFS operational, on the other hand, looks awesome. Folks to the south might disagree with that assertion.

We get buried later in the run at least

[SnowWillarrive]

Cliff Mass has a new blog up. I have no clue why he keeps posting WRF snow maps. 

[RentonHill]

its only tuesday. long week

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

Cliff Mass has a new blog up. I have no clue why he keeps posting WRF snow maps. 

Because that model is his baby.

[Deweydog]

Just now, RentonHill said:

its only tuesday. long week

Yeah but the models think it’s Wednesday. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Yeah but the models think it’s Wednesday. 

For some of them, it is!

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Cliff Mass has a new blog up. I have no clue why he keeps posting WRF snow maps. 

It's his baby.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Because that model is his baby.

 

Just now, Front Ranger said:

It's his baby.

Jinxy.

[Gradient Keeper]

We need a really good Euro run. Anything similar to the 12z today would be great.

Day 1 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Meatyorologist]

That trend to push the block south delays its eventual escape to the Arctic. Verbatim should add potential to the long range should it continue.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Cliff Mass has a new blog up. I have no clue why he keeps posting WRF snow maps. 

It nailed the snow I got Saturday 72 hrs before the event. 

[Deweydog]

Wtg Euro for starting ON TIME.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 30 Ridge merger ECMWF hi-res, GEM, GFS

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That trend to push the block south delays its eventual escape to the Arctic. Verbatim should add potential to the long range should it continue.

Push it far enough south and you get zonal flow which cannot physically float to the pole. Problem solved!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF through Day 2

[TT-SEA]

We were watching a movie and I fell asleep.   I see the 00Z GFS was quite snowy!   Sure makes up for the lack snow over the weekend in a hurry.    

[Deweydog]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

We were watching a movie and I fell asleep.   I see the 00Z GFS was quite snowy!   Sure makes up for the lack snow over the weekend in a hurry.   Wow. 

East of Eden?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Front Ranger]

That block is a beaut. One big difference with this pattern compared to the December one is the +NAO this time around, compared to raging -NAO with that one.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

East of Eden?

Guardians of the Galaxy with my daughter who had never seen it.   I have seen it so many times that I couldn't make it through.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Through Day 3

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Guardians of the Galaxy with my daughter who had never seen it.   I have seen it so many times that I couldn't make it through.  

Hmmm… released 8/1/14. Not exactly an inspiring analogue.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (2-run trend)

[Cold Snap]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 3 (2-run trend)

Looks slightly farther west.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 4 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

Looks way closer to the GEM than the GFS so far

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Doinko said:

Looks way closer to the GEM than the GFS so far

Yeah. Looks real good.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 90 here it comes

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 850s

[Doinko]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 4 850s

Very slightly colder than the 12z so far, but not much of a noticeable difference. Looks good so far

[Deweydog]

Just need a little more overwater trajectory…

[Doinko]

Snowy arctic front!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Doinko said:

Very slightly colder than the 12z so far, but not much of a noticeable difference. Looks good so far

Definitely a notch WEST for Saturday... helps Portland.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[snow_wizard]

Very cold ECMWF run.  -13 850s by Sunday morning for this area.  Brrrr!