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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Very cold ECMWF run.  -13 850s by Sunday morning for this area.  Brrrr!

Compared to -10c on the 12z which was also very cold, got down to -15/-16c over PDX. This run looks colder

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Highs for Sunday... no clouds anywhere but western OR is even colder than the Seattle area.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5036800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm still not sold one way or the other about snow this weekend.  I've seen too many times the models busted too dry going into these things.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm still not sold one way or the other about snow this weekend.  I've seen too many times the models busted too dry going into these things.

The slow trend toward snowier to the south on the ECMWF has me thinking the Seattle area might get in on this trend yet.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nice to see this on the euro. Fairly deep outflow, NW OR has the lowest 850s in the lowlands at that time. 850th.us_nw.png

I'm usually skeptical of any decent snow from an arctic front around here. Harder to pull off down here compared to further north in WA. The general idea is now looking about the same now on all models at least and I like what the Euro is doing. Hopefully we can get that trough a bit further west to pick up more juice. 

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  • Longtimer
10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm still not sold one way or the other about snow this weekend.  I've seen too many times the models busted too dry going into these things.

Might be one of those RARE snow setups in the lowlands where details will be hard to pin down until almost verification.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps Tuesday... cold hanging on better down south.    

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5209600.png

Yeah it’s more of a backdoor blast which will generally be a little colder and longer down here. An amped up version of last February.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:
Day 8 boring ridge drifts over us with slow moderating. Hopefully the next few days we'll see a change with an undercutting system for snow!
500h_anom.na.png

I don’t hate it. We d see cold nights and slow moderation during the day. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Had 42/32 today. Cloudy all day and nice.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 16F (Jan 30, 2023)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 60¬†(Most recent: Mar 27, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5¬†(Most recent: Jan 30, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: Enough to give the winter an A
  • Last accumulating snowfall: Mar 5, 2023
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22,¬†2022¬†(31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: Mar 5, 2023
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22,¬†2022¬†(31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

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  • Longtimer

A reminder the euro and gem are likely way too aggressive with those 850mb temps in this range. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

500h_anom.na.png

That’s like a 45/22 day at SLE. Not bad. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

this D**n thing is going to end trending as cold as the December shot, or at least close

Depends on the metric. This outbreak as progged will not have Omak advecting to near 0. Not even close.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Depends on the metric. This outbreak as progged will not have Omak advecting to near 0. Not even close.

seems to maybe be coming from a different trajectory? I know over here we get coldest when our blast comes down the Purcell trench from the NE, not from the North that gets Omak coldest.

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Hate it when we slowly moderate out of the cold. A good overrunning event has not happened in ages.

Less than two years ago.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Phishy Wx said:

seems to maybe be coming from a different trajectory? I know over here we get coldest when our blast comes down the Purcell trench from the NE, not from the North that gets Omak coldest.

Yeah, this is a direct-to-basin event. I wouldn’t call it a straight up backdoor event, although it is more likely to morph into that in the next couple days compared to something more north/south. As opposed to the last several events, teleconnections with this are ripe for the short wave to expand and dig directly over us.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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  • Longtimer

Could definitely be some teens west side though 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I'm thinking if the cold setup is short lived the chances are high we will get hit again later in Feb.  SSW will probably reap benefits later on.

This ECMWF isn't too bad though.  Stays pretty chilly with an inversionary type pattern after the big cold shot.  A little bit of snow in there after the cold is in place as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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1 minute ago, JW8 said:

Looks like this may be a waste of cold air (for snow fans). Real bummer ūüėĒ

No matter what I'm thrilled to see a legit cold pattern in late January.  I'm going to enjoy the cold!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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Still a chance this thing will get extended over the next couple of days too.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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  • Longtimer

The December thing was extremely unsatisfying, so I hope we can squeeze out a little snow and a few days of cold lows from this.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, Doinko said:

Mark Nelsen's thoughts

 

Screenshot_20230124_205356_YouTube.jpg

That's pretty cold but I'm not sure I would call 10-15F extreme cold. Probably just because we've had that already in EWA. Then again if the temp or wind-chill is below 15F at the school's weather station they have inside recess.

 

  • Weenie 3

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 13.9 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 2.20 inches (12/19/22 & 12/20/22)

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) .10 on 3/08/23

Days with trace or more snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5), 12/14/22 (1.6), 12/18/22 (T), 12/19/22 (2.10), 12/20/22 (.10), 12/23/22 (2.0), 01/03/2023 (T), 1/22/23 (T), 2/21/23 (.10), 2/22/23 (.80), 2/23/23 (.20), 2/24/2023 (.50), 2/28/23 (.90), 3/5/2023 (2.0), 3/8/2023 (.10)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 0F (12/21/2022)

Last sub freezing high:  2/23/23

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location  (I've also had a White Christmas in 2017 when I lived in Stanwood and a White Christmas at a hotel in Moscow, ID in 2020). 

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