PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Very cold ECMWF run.  -13 850s by Sunday morning for this area.  Brrrr!

Compared to -10c on the 12z which was also very cold, got down to -15/-16c over PDX. This run looks colder

[Doinko]

Highs in the 20s on Monday for the WV

[Gradient Keeper]

PDX 850s -15c. Legit blast.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[TT-SEA]

Highs for Sunday... no clouds anywhere but western OR is even colder than the Seattle area.

 

[Kolk1604]

Monday 1am Snow for Rob 

[Deweydog]

January 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Highs for Sunday... no clouds anywhere but western OR is even colder than the Seattle area.

 

Full on major arctic blast on this run. Decent snowfall for PDX too. 

[snow_wizard]

I'm still not sold one way or the other about snow this weekend.  I've seen too many times the models busted too dry going into these things.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

January 

Monkey off of back.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm still not sold one way or the other about snow this weekend.  I've seen too many times the models busted too dry going into these things.

The slow trend toward snowier to the south on the ECMWF has me thinking the Seattle area might get in on this trend yet.

[TT-SEA]

High temps Monday... full sun everywhere.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Monkey off of back.

It's so close to February, Mother Nature is giving it a pass.

[Kolk1604]

DP crashes Monday Morning 

[Doinko]

00z runs

GEM: -18c 850s
Euro: -15c 850s
GFS: -9c 850s
 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Full on major arctic blast on this run. Decent snowfall for PDX too. 

[Doinko]

This run looks like it'll be better for undercutting later on

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

00z runs

GEM: -18c 850s
Euro: -15c 850s
GFS: -9c 850s
 

I want the one that gives me 9-19" of snow and 850s -19c to -26c

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Tuesday 4 AM

[Kolk1604]

The dew point for Portland is wild. It's like this for at least 2 days 

[TT-SEA]

High temps Tuesday... cold hanging on better down south.    

[Perturbed Member]

Nice to see this on the euro. Fairly deep outflow, NW OR has the lowest 850s in the lowlands at that time. 

I'm usually skeptical of any decent snow from an arctic front around here. Harder to pull off down here compared to further north in WA. The general idea is now looking about the same now on all models at least and I like what the Euro is doing. Hopefully we can get that trough a bit further west to pick up more juice. 

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm still not sold one way or the other about snow this weekend.  I've seen too many times the models busted too dry going into these things.

Might be one of those RARE snow setups in the lowlands where details will be hard to pin down until almost verification.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 boring ridge drifts over us with slow moderating. Hopefully the next few days we'll see a change with an undercutting system for snow!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps Tuesday... cold hanging on better down south.    

Yeah it’s more of a backdoor blast which will generally be a little colder and longer down here. An amped up version of last February.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8 boring ridge drifts over us with slow moderating. Hopefully the next few days we'll see a change with an undercutting system for snow!

I don’t hate it. We d see cold nights and slow moderation during the day. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Had 42/32 today. Cloudy all day and nice.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A reminder the euro and gem are likely way too aggressive with those 850mb temps in this range. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Phishy Wx]

this D**n thing is going to end trending as cold as the December shot, or at least close

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

That’s like a 45/22 day at SLE. Not bad. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

this D**n thing is going to end trending as cold as the December shot, or at least close

Depends on the metric. This outbreak as progged will not have Omak advecting to near 0. Not even close.

[SnowWillarrive]

11 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8 boring ridge drifts over us with slow moderating. Hopefully the next few days we'll see a change with an undercutting system for snow!

Hate it when we slowly moderate out of the cold. A good overrunning event has not happened in ages.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Depends on the metric. This outbreak as progged will not have Omak advecting to near 0. Not even close.

seems to maybe be coming from a different trajectory? I know over here we get coldest when our blast comes down the Purcell trench from the NE, not from the North that gets Omak coldest.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Hate it when we slowly moderate out of the cold. A good overrunning event has not happened in ages.

Less than two years ago.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Deweydog]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

seems to maybe be coming from a different trajectory? I know over here we get coldest when our blast comes down the Purcell trench from the NE, not from the North that gets Omak coldest.

Yeah, this is a direct-to-basin event. I wouldn’t call it a straight up backdoor event, although it is more likely to morph into that in the next couple days compared to something more north/south. As opposed to the last several events, teleconnections with this are ripe for the short wave to expand and dig directly over us.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could definitely be some teens west side though 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Could definitely be some teens west side though 

You should get a nice dump of snow up there.

[JW8]

Looks like this may be a waste of cold air (for snow fans). Real bummer

[snow_wizard]

I'm thinking if the cold setup is short lived the chances are high we will get hit again later in Feb.  SSW will probably reap benefits later on.

This ECMWF isn't too bad though.  Stays pretty chilly with an inversionary type pattern after the big cold shot.  A little bit of snow in there after the cold is in place as well.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, JW8 said:

Looks like this may be a waste of cold air (for snow fans). Real bummer

No matter what I'm thrilled to see a legit cold pattern in late January.  I'm going to enjoy the cold!

[snow_wizard]

Still a chance this thing will get extended over the next couple of days too.

[WeatherGeek2022]

low expectations but throw a surprise at us nature

[Gradient Keeper]

This feels a bit like December with models trending colder and colder. At least the ECMWF/EPS and GEM/CMCE are doing so.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

This feels a bit like December with models trending colder and colder. At least the ECMWF/EPS and GEM/CMCE are doing so.

December looked really amazing at one point. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The December thing was extremely unsatisfying, so I hope we can squeeze out a little snow and a few days of cold lows from this.

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, Doinko said:

Mark Nelsen's thoughts

 

That's pretty cold but I'm not sure I would call 10-15F extreme cold. Probably just because we've had that already in EWA. Then again if the temp or wind-chill is below 15F at the school's weather station they have inside recess.