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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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Still a chance this thing will get extended over the next couple of days too.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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  • Longtimer

The December thing was extremely unsatisfying, so I hope we can squeeze out a little snow and a few days of cold lows from this.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 hours ago, Doinko said:

Mark Nelsen's thoughts

 

Screenshot_20230124_205356_YouTube.jpg

That's pretty cold but I'm not sure I would call 10-15F extreme cold. Probably just because we've had that already in EWA. Then again if the temp or wind-chill is below 15F at the school's weather station they have inside recess.

 

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 9.3 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 2.20 inches (12/19/22 & 12/20/22)

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: 2.0 on 12/23/22

Days with trace or more snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5), 12/14/22 (1.6), 12/18/22 (T), 12/19/22 (2.10), 12/20/22 (.10), 12/23/22 (2.0), 01/03/2023 (T), 1/22/23 (T)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 0F (12/21/2022)

Last sub freezing high: 1/30/23

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location  (I've also had a White Christmas in 2017 when I lived in Stanwood and a White Christmas at a hotel in Moscow, ID in 2020). 

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43 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

500h_anom.na.png

Anyone else see an Eagle in this image?

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 9.3 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 2.20 inches (12/19/22 & 12/20/22)

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: 2.0 on 12/23/22

Days with trace or more snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5), 12/14/22 (1.6), 12/18/22 (T), 12/19/22 (2.10), 12/20/22 (.10), 12/23/22 (2.0), 01/03/2023 (T), 1/22/23 (T)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 0F (12/21/2022)

Last sub freezing high: 1/30/23

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location  (I've also had a White Christmas in 2017 when I lived in Stanwood and a White Christmas at a hotel in Moscow, ID in 2020). 

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EPS is even colder than the 12z.  Very impressive.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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12 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

That's pretty cold but I'm not sure I would call 10-15F extreme cold. Probably just because we've had that already in EWA. Then again if the temp or wind-chill is below 15F at the school's weather station they have inside recess.

 

That's cold for the west side.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 19

 

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2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I'm not sure. Top left? ....

Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 59 minutes

Haha sorry it's a sports reference with the 49ers playing the Eagles for the NFC Championship. Thank you for sharing the run with us 

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 9.3 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 2.20 inches (12/19/22 & 12/20/22)

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: 2.0 on 12/23/22

Days with trace or more snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5), 12/14/22 (1.6), 12/18/22 (T), 12/19/22 (2.10), 12/20/22 (.10), 12/23/22 (2.0), 01/03/2023 (T), 1/22/23 (T)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 0F (12/21/2022)

Last sub freezing high: 1/30/23

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location  (I've also had a White Christmas in 2017 when I lived in Stanwood and a White Christmas at a hotel in Moscow, ID in 2020). 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's cold for the west side.

I like snow best. But I'm becoming more and more of a cold lover these days. I still like the house to torch inside in the winter.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 9.3 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 2.20 inches (12/19/22 & 12/20/22)

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: 2.0 on 12/23/22

Days with trace or more snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5), 12/14/22 (1.6), 12/18/22 (T), 12/19/22 (2.10), 12/20/22 (.10), 12/23/22 (2.0), 01/03/2023 (T), 1/22/23 (T)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 0F (12/21/2022)

Last sub freezing high: 1/30/23

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location  (I've also had a White Christmas in 2017 when I lived in Stanwood and a White Christmas at a hotel in Moscow, ID in 2020). 

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32 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Not sure if this was mentioned and im like 10 pages behind.  But the JMA was rather gfs like for the middle of next week, with bitter cold over BC and N Washington and an active storm track plowing into Oregon. 
 

326EE7B6-9925-4D46-BF27-7664B9684273.gif.39e8e2c5e0301cdfb016a4e95881caf1.gifDFC98E90-37F0-4B39-81C0-6F991398D2A3.gif.6582a5f659f4ca8261c0a057f3228e76.gif

That would be awesome. Very snowy for PDX.

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06z GFS showing no snow through day 10 after the snow Saturday night.

B0796556-301E-4FF0-A036-249EF9C2FE81.png

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2022-2023 Winter Stats

Total Snowfall - 14.25”

Max Snow Depth - 6”

Coldest High Temp - 23F

Coldest Low Temp - 11F

Number of Freezes - 49

Sub-40 highs - 18

Highs 32 or lower - 3

 

 

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So while this isn’t a true SSW, the PV will be taking body blows and weakening steadily over the next 2 weeks. So the pattern will likely improve next month.

And ironically it was the crappy January pattern which helped produce the wave activity fluxes responsible for the W1 response/early demise of the vortex.

So yes, there are benefits to the Aleutian low pattern! Often times it’s the progressive +PNA type patterns that produce the best upward wave driving from the NPAC conduit, which ends up disrupting the vortex and bringing about a colder pattern down the road.

4CFA2699-1372-4739-9A6E-51AEE1D485B5.gif

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50 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

CFS has been consistently over it after the warmup by next weekend 😭

If the CFS is predicting a blowtorch, all the more reason to expect a cold pattern. That model is literally useless. Serves no purpose at all.

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  • Staff

Some meteograms from overnight... in order of update 00Z EPS, 06Z GFS, and 06Z GEFS.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-4604800 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-4626400 (1).png

gfs-ensemble-all-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-4626400 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

6z EPS looks like heights bit lower and arctic trough digs out touch more holds over us longer. 850s might be a slight notch colder. Would like to see the arctic trough dig a bit further offshore for more over-water-trajectory.

12z GFS in 1 hour 10 minutes

Mean drops to -12.1 on the 6z, similar to 00z

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Some meteograms from overnight... in order of update 00Z EPS, 06Z GFS, and 06Z GEFS.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-4604800 (1).png

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-4626400 (1).png

gfs-ensemble-all-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-4626400 (1).png

Still looking more impressive down in Oregon than up here…they should manage sub freezing highs and probably some snow. Doesn’t look like we will manage sub freezing highs up here and snows less likely. They’re due down there! 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-11

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-24

Total snowfall-6.0” 

Monthly rainfall-0.89”

Wet season rainfall-17.30”

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4 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

06z GFS showing no snow through day 10 after the snow Saturday night.

B0796556-301E-4FF0-A036-249EF9C2FE81.png

Add that to what the 00Z Euro modelled and it's really shaping up to be a dry (or mostly dry) blast :(. Maybe things will change but as of right now this is where model consensus is trending.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

🌭 As W7ENK once posted on the old Fox 12 blog, getting an arctic front without snow is a little like taking a bottle of Dom Perignon and emptying it into the toilet.

Euro and GFS have a good 1-2" for me so it doesn't look completely dry here at least

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I guess the consolation is that I did pretty well in November and December.

Won’t even be able to make a Frostman with the low DP’s…The empty landscape will just have that dehydrated look to it for a few days instead. And my dogs walking on frozen non snow covered grass should finish off my yard by destroying what’s left of the grass…Exciting!!! 
 

I really need an attitude adjustment. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Is your dog doing a number two in that picture?

Nothing yet at picture time…#1 was a few moments later. She was just not happy to be out in 40 degree drizzle after being in her cozy bed inside. But she is 16 now and needs to go out a lot lol. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Staff

12Z GFS is a little drier and faster with the front on Saturday... seems that things have been trending colder faster which also means drier.    This is total snow with the weekend system.

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-5047600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Won’t even be able to make a Frostman with the low DP’s…The empty landscape will just have that dehydrated look to it for a few days instead. And my dogs walking on frozen non snow covered grass should finish off my yard by destroying what’s left of the grass…Exciting!!! 
 

I really need an attitude adjustment. 

Dismissing the 0z gfs. It was very snowy. Showed almost 40” here. 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is a little drier and faster with the front on Saturday... seems that things have been trending colder faster which also means drier.    This is total snow with the weekend system.

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-5047600.png

GFS is way warmer than other models with the blast. Wonder which models will cave

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  • Staff
1 minute ago, Doinko said:

GFS is way warmer than other models with the blast. Wonder which models will cave

So strange for the GFS to be the more muted model in terms of cold.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Staff

High temps on Monday with full sunshine... GFS is just not impressive.    I would go with the ECMWF on temps.

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5123200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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