PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[snow_wizard]

Still a chance this thing will get extended over the next couple of days too.

[WeatherGeek2022]

low expectations but throw a surprise at us nature

[Gradient Keeper]

This feels a bit like December with models trending colder and colder. At least the ECMWF/EPS and GEM/CMCE are doing so.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

This feels a bit like December with models trending colder and colder. At least the ECMWF/EPS and GEM/CMCE are doing so.

December looked really amazing at one point. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The December thing was extremely unsatisfying, so I hope we can squeeze out a little snow and a few days of cold lows from this.

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, Doinko said:

Mark Nelsen's thoughts

 

That's pretty cold but I'm not sure I would call 10-15F extreme cold. Probably just because we've had that already in EWA. Then again if the temp or wind-chill is below 15F at the school's weather station they have inside recess.

 

[LowerGarfield]

43 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

Anyone else see an Eagle in this image?

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

Anyone else see an Eagle in this image?

I'm not sure. Top left? ....

Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 59 minutes

[snow_wizard]

EPS is even colder than the 12z.  Very impressive.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

That's pretty cold but I'm not sure I would call 10-15F extreme cold. Probably just because we've had that already in EWA. Then again if the temp or wind-chill is below 15F at the school's weather station they have inside recess.

 

That's cold for the west side.

[LowerGarfield]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I'm not sure. Top left? ....

Night Shift 6z GFS in 1 hour 59 minutes

Haha sorry it's a sports reference with the 49ers playing the Eagles for the NFC Championship. Thank you for sharing the run with us 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

EPS is even colder than the 12z.  Very impressive.

Yes it is.

[LowerGarfield]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's cold for the west side.

I like snow best. But I'm becoming more and more of a cold lover these days. I still like the house to torch inside in the winter.

[Gradient Keeper]

11 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Haha sorry it's a sports reference with the 49ers playing the Eagles for the NFC Championship. Thank you for sharing the run with us 

No problem. Yeah it should be an incredible game, but I give the edge to Philly.

[ShawniganLake]

Not sure if this was mentioned and im like 10 pages behind.  But the JMA was rather gfs like for the middle of next week, with bitter cold over BC and N Washington and an active storm track plowing into Oregon. 
 

[Gradient Keeper]

32 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Not sure if this was mentioned and im like 10 pages behind.  But the JMA was rather gfs like for the middle of next week, with bitter cold over BC and N Washington and an active storm track plowing into Oregon. 
 

That would be awesome. Very snowy for PDX.

[Cold Snap]

06z GFS showing no snow through day 10 after the snow Saturday night.

[Christensen87]

CFS has been consistently over it after the warmup by next weekend 

[Phil]

So while this isn’t a true SSW, the PV will be taking body blows and weakening steadily over the next 2 weeks. So the pattern will likely improve next month.

And ironically it was the crappy January pattern which helped produce the wave activity fluxes responsible for the W1 response/early demise of the vortex.

So yes, there are benefits to the Aleutian low pattern! Often times it’s the progressive +PNA type patterns that produce the best upward wave driving from the NPAC conduit, which ends up disrupting the vortex and bringing about a colder pattern down the road.

[Phil]

50 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

CFS has been consistently over it after the warmup by next weekend 

If the CFS is predicting a blowtorch, all the more reason to expect a cold pattern. That model is literally useless. Serves no purpose at all.

[High Desert Mat?]

Wow this place is dead. Except for the east coast weenie. 

[TT-SEA]

Some meteograms from overnight... in order of update 00Z EPS, 06Z GFS, and 06Z GEFS.

 

[Doinko]

6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

EPS is even colder than the 12z.  Very impressive.

Wow, mean drops to -12c for PDX

[Gradient Keeper]

6z EPS looks like heights bit lower and arctic trough digs out touch more holds over us longer. 850s might be a slight notch colder. Would like to see the arctic trough dig a bit further offshore for more over-water-trajectory.

12z GFS in 1 hour 10 minutes

[Doinko]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

6z EPS looks like heights bit lower and arctic trough digs out touch more holds over us longer. 850s might be a slight notch colder. Would like to see the arctic trough dig a bit further offshore for more over-water-trajectory.

12z GFS in 1 hour 10 minutes

Mean drops to -12.1 on the 6z, similar to 00z

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Mean drops to -12.1 on the 6z, similar to 00z

Yeah slight notch colder. The slightest of notchy notches.

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Some meteograms from overnight... in order of update 00Z EPS, 06Z GFS, and 06Z GEFS.

 

Still looking more impressive down in Oregon than up here…they should manage sub freezing highs and probably some snow. Doesn’t look like we will manage sub freezing highs up here and snows less likely. They’re due down there! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

06z GFS showing no snow through day 10 after the snow Saturday night.

Add that to what the 00Z Euro modelled and it's really shaping up to be a dry (or mostly dry) blast . Maybe things will change but as of right now this is where model consensus is trending.

[Doinko]

06z EPS was the coldest yet, hope the 12z will continue that

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Doinko said:

06z EPS was the coldest yet, hope the 12z will continue that

As W7ENK once posted on the old Fox 12 blog, getting an arctic front without snow is a little like taking a bottle of Dom Perignon and emptying it into the toilet.

[Doinko]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

As W7ENK once posted on the old Fox 12 blog, getting an arctic front without snow is a little like taking a bottle of Dom Perignon and emptying it into the toilet.

Euro and GFS have a good 1-2" for me so it doesn't look completely dry here at least

[MossMan]

Well over 24hrs straight of moderate drizzle.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Euro and GFS have a good 1-2" for me so it doesn't look completely dry here at least

I guess the consolation is that I did pretty well in November and December.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well over 24hrs straight of moderate drizzle.

Is your dog doing a number two in that picture?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

00Z Euro, just for reference.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

00Z Euro, just for reference.

How's the 06z control?

[MossMan]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I guess the consolation is that I did pretty well in November and December.

Won’t even be able to make a Frostman with the low DP’s…The empty landscape will just have that dehydrated look to it for a few days instead. And my dogs walking on frozen non snow covered grass should finish off my yard by destroying what’s left of the grass…Exciting!!! 
 

I really need an attitude adjustment. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Is your dog doing a number two in that picture?

Nothing yet at picture time…#1 was a few moments later. She was just not happy to be out in 40 degree drizzle after being in her cozy bed inside. But she is 16 now and needs to go out a lot lol. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How's the 06z control?

It doesn’t look that far into the future.

[Phishy Wx]

still all in

[Phishy Wx]

approaching Dec cold (was -4 IMBY for that one). I think KGEG got down to -10 at it's coldest

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is a little drier and faster with the front on Saturday... seems that things have been trending colder faster which also means drier.    This is total snow with the weekend system.

[ShawniganLake]

16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Won’t even be able to make a Frostman with the low DP’s…The empty landscape will just have that dehydrated look to it for a few days instead. And my dogs walking on frozen non snow covered grass should finish off my yard by destroying what’s left of the grass…Exciting!!! 
 

I really need an attitude adjustment. 

Dismissing the 0z gfs. It was very snowy. Showed almost 40” here. 

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Sunday

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is a little drier and faster with the front on Saturday... seems that things have been trending colder faster which also means drier.    This is total snow with the weekend system.

GFS is way warmer than other models with the blast. Wonder which models will cave

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

GFS is way warmer than other models with the blast. Wonder which models will cave

So strange for the GFS to be the more muted model in terms of cold.   

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Monday with full sunshine... GFS is just not impressive.    I would go with the ECMWF on temps.

[Doinko]

GEM has a bit of snow for PDX

 

[Doinko]

GEM is very cold on Sunday, these are temps in the afternoon

 

[Doinko]

850s are not as cold on this GEM run as the crazy 00z run, but still get down to around -15c