PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

18z NAM digs the trough a small notch further west/offshore.

[Doinko]

Minor step back on the EPS, mean gets down to -11.6c

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

First round is on me. No matter if we get 5 ppl or 50 ppl 

Nice. I'm gonna invite everyone I know.

[Deweydog]

Hey hey the NAM’s in play!!!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

53 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Very true. There are inland and mountain climates well to the south of us and within the western US that clobber even Pretentius Knowitallus’s backyard.

I guess I have a reputation to live up to now. I will strive not to disappoint.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Hey hey the NAM’s in play!!!

Time for some NAM snow maps then!  

[Gradient Keeper]

18z ICON digging southwest bit better too.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

18z ICON digging southwest bit better too.

That is trending faster... not the trend direction people in western WA would want.

[Perturbed Member]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

I’m really not that surprised this is turning out to be a dry blast because I feel like it’s been a while since one. It sucks for the Portland folks though because when they finally get a decent arctic blast it comes with little to no snow. 

This weekend's setup just isn't a big snowstorm setup for PDX. We very rarely get a sharp arctic front let alone one with enough juice for any significant snow accumulation after the front passes. IMO the top end outcome for this weekend would be 1-3 inches in PDX. More realistically it will be some snow in the air or a dusting since it will probably go dry once it is cold enough, a very familiar situation for us...

Most of the big snowstorms here come from overrunning once the cold air is already in place paired with offshore flow through the gorge. A nice BC slider can also produce good results. The late December sleet event here was very close to a significant snow storm, we had every ingredient but the top of the column was just a bit too warm. 

A good overrunning event sometime next week still seems possible at least. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

38 minutes ago, Bueryan said:

Some day when we all put on chains and trudge through the snow to meet at a bar, and Frosty buys us the first round, (I think it was him who said he'd do that?) I'd love to hear your attempts.

Idk why but this reminded me of this 

[Bueryan]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Idk why but this reminded me of this 

In 3rd grade I watched this movie three times in a day with friends. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Idk why but this reminded me of this 

That's what you look like. I will be coming soon. 

[Tyler Mode]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I for one am very happy to see a shot of arctic air at the tail end of January, even if it’s mostly dry. This stretch of calendar has been way overdue and in this rapidly warming climate we take what we can get.

Case in point, my lowest highs in the last 12 years for the last week of January:

39.3	25th
40.3	26th
39.5	27th
42.2	28th
44.5	29th
44.6	30th
42.3	31st

[RentonHill]

temps at the end vs 12z

[RentonHill]

[Cascadia_Wx]

Today is staying solidly overcast now that PDX got that 50 out of its system yesterday. High of 45 so far.

[ShawniganLake]

Signs of spring

 

[TT-SEA]

18Z ICON

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS... we can always count on the GFS to assume accumulating snow with temps in the mid to upper 30s.  

[TT-SEA]

For reference... this is where its above freezing and below freezing at 4 p.m. on Saturday per the 18Z GFS.     Precip is already done at this point from King County northward.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For reference... this is where its above freezing and below freezing at 4 p.m. on Saturday per the 18Z GFS.     Precip is already done at this point from King County northward.

Single digits!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

41F and cloudy. Have I missed anything entertaining?

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Single digits!

That should do the trick!  

[Deweydog]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

41F and cloudy. Have I missed anything entertaining?

Somebody said something about hitting a strip club.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF output for SEA and PDX

[WeatherGeek2022]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF output for SEA and PDX

did not expect these runs to mellow out so significantly on what could've been big.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

did not expect these runs to mellow out so significantly on what could've been big.

One great GEM run and a few good GFS runs hyped many up.

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

One great GEM run and a few good GFS runs hyped many up.

euro seemed consistent with it for at least a few days prior as well.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, WeatherGeek2022 said:

euro seemed consistent with it for at least a few days prior as well.

I don't think Euro was ever that good, just cold.

[Doinko]

EPS mean was 0.5c warmer for 850mb temps. It's not like this thing has completely gone away or anything

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Single digits!

At least the torching with highs of +10 and above is over.

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

I don't think Euro was ever that good, just cold.

yeah there was some juicy cold

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

EPS mean was 0.5c warmer for 850mb temps. It's not like this thing has completely gone away or anything

Euro gets down to -12.8c over PDX

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

41F and cloudy. Have I missed anything entertaining?

https://media.giphy.com/media/hvAjltvsiJdmU3Ic8H/giphy.gif

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Somebody said something about hitting a strip club.

I'm gonna go and assume it'll be one better than the ones we have down here.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Alright bois, time to write this one off unfortunately. 

[BLI snowman]

Looks more likely that arctic air just kind of limps into the lower 48 at this point and quickly retreats. We should be thankful that we're getting anything with this fleeting block.

[Christensen87]

On to mid February! ...

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks more likely that arctic air just kind of limps into the lower 48 at this point and quickly retreats. We should be thankful that we're getting anything with this fleeting block.

Even if we just get some highs below 40 and lows below 25 it would be the coldest January 29-31 period in many years.

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

On to mid February! ...

hope wanes by then

[Deweydog]

Jet suppression!!!

[Cascadia_Wx]

12Z EPS. I mean it’s not like it shows us rocketing to well above average after the cold spell. Temps stay near to slightly below average into the long range.

[Christensen87]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12Z EPS. I mean it’s not like it shows us rocketing to well above average after the cold spell. Temps stay near to slightly below average into the long range.

Yeah, looks like at least we'll be staying cool for awhile. Yay, mountain snow! 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12Z EPS. I mean it’s not like it shows us rocketing to well above average after the cold spell. Temps stay near to slightly below average into the long range.

The mean gets to nearly -12c on this run. Not sure why everyone is talking as if this cold spell is completely gone or something

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

The mean gets to nearly -12c on this run. Not sure why everyone is talking as if this cold spell is completely gone or something

It's short, not that impressive and no snow. I am usually optimistic but there is no optimistic angle right now. Other than hoping for something later on.

[Doinko]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

It's quick, not that impressive and no snow. I am usually optimistic but there is no optimistic angle right now. Other than hoping for something later on.

EPS, Euro, GEM and CMCE show the coldest airmass for us since December 2013 with 850s -12 to -15c.

[Meatyorologist]

4 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Didn’t the Puget Sound area see some decent snow events in Late November and December? 

Speaking honestly, the Tacoma-Seattle area did not get hit too hard. We did get a couple nights with some wet slop, but nothing sticking around for more than 12 hours. Lynwood north and south of Tacoma each had their own decent snow event. Still grateful for what I got, and honestly I don't care if I get any snow this round. The cold is the main story and I'm happy to follow that.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

The mean gets to nearly -12c on this run. Not sure why everyone is talking as if this cold spell is completely gone or something

About 80% of the wintertime crowd here is just in it for the pepto maps.

[Doinko]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

About 80% of the wintertime crowd here is just in it for the pepto maps.

I would love to see some snow too but for cold this seems decently impressive, especially since we've not seen anything in this timeframe in a while. It's also just been one morning of runs that were a minor setback for cold/snow. Plenty of time for models to trend better the next few days

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Speaking honestly, the Tacoma-Seattle area did not get hit too hard. We did get a couple nights with some wet slop, but nothing sticking around for more than 12 hours. Lynwood north and south of Tacoma each had their own decent snow event. Still grateful for what I got, and honestly I don't care if I get any snow this round. The cold is the main story and I'm happy to follow that.

I was gone during the biggest event in Bothell, which was 3 inches.