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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Requiem

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Only “issue” at the moment is the fact the HB vortex is rock solid. 

There's a lot going on that could change that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

500h_anom.na.png

Jaw dropper.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

500h_anom.na.png

East 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Fraser River air blasts to Portland and beyond on this run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

If the walker cell still looks like this in 5-6 weeks, I think we can safely put to rest any notion of an El Niño transition this year.

Most years that transitioned were building Indo-Pacific WWB activity by this point, and by Feb/Mar the western flank of the walker cell tends to be displaced significantly eastward.

And none of the borderline cases were full blown +QBO during the late winter/early spring season.

This looks like a healthy La Niña circulation.

DE37A1E3-0390-4D16-B3AC-7000FE14A2C3.gif

Just pile the good vibes on. Can we get a 4peat??!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

If the walker cell still looks like this in 5-6 weeks, I think we can safely put to rest any notion of an El Niño transition this year.

Most years that transitioned were building Indo-Pacific WWB activity by this point, and by Feb/Mar the western flank of the walker cell tends to be displaced significantly eastward.

And none of the borderline cases were full blown +QBO during the late winter/early spring season.

This looks like a healthy La Niña circulation.

DE37A1E3-0390-4D16-B3AC-7000FE14A2C3.gif

It may be a slow transition. But I have come to terms with the idea of a possible El Nino.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

If the walker cell still looks like this in 5-6 weeks, I think we can safely put to rest any notion of an El Niño transition this year.

Most years that transitioned were building Indo-Pacific WWB activity by this point, and by Feb/Mar the western flank of the walker cell tends to be displaced significantly eastward.

And none of the borderline cases were full blown +QBO during the late winter/early spring season.

This looks like a healthy La Niña circulation.

DE37A1E3-0390-4D16-B3AC-7000FE14A2C3.gif

Uncharted waters from here if the Nina holds.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just pile the good vibes on. Can we get a 4peat??!

I would think you would be hoping for something different after the last 3 summers.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Even with the thermocline shoaled/depressed in the WPAC, it is meaningless if trades continue to rage.

A legitimate boreal spring WWB could easily change the picture as the thermocline is ripe for a DOKW, but usually there’s some indication of weakness in the La Niña cell by now, and I’m just not seeing it yet.

9EBB5B95-93C3-4B2E-A77D-EFD373A6CEA2.gif

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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Looks good!

1.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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These blasts that are straight from the north usually do well for snow and overperforming cold for Seattle.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Uncharted waters from here if the Nina holds.

I suspect it’ll fade to neutral this year, but atmospherically, we’re lagging behind the El Niño transition years. At least for now.

Could easily be a 2 year transition, with 2023/24 returning to neutral and 2024/25 returning to El Niño.

Whether the next El Niño is this year or next year, I suspect it will be a moderate/strong event.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I suspect it’ll fade to neutral this year, but atmospherically, we’re lagging behind the El Niño transition years. At least for now.

Could easily be a 2 year transition, with 2023/24 returning to neutral and 2024/25 returning to El Niño.

Whether the next El Niño is this year or next year, I suspect it will be a moderate/strong event.

Totally agreed.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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February. Knows what month it is.

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  • Shivering 2

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

If you think that was good, just wait. Colder runs ahead. MBG!

Night Shift 6z GFS in 2 hours 34 minutes. Will the GFS finally correct itself latching onto the more likely GEM/ECMWF solution? No idea. Stay tuned!

I'm good if this is as good as gets from a 500mb perspective.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

February. Knows what month it is.

The real kicker is it starts this month.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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