PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Phishy Wx]

oh you guys

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah, it’s just been a rough few weeks for the ol’ spinner and getting rougher. Bruised and battered but still alive.

Yep, it’s just going to sit there and rot away with the W1 structure present. 1989 was did it much quicker with a huge swing from record +U to record -U at 10mb.

2023 is timed similarity, but it’s a weak sauce version of it. And the good cold is still over in Asia.

 

2 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

If Mossman can’t have snow, nobody can

Lol I think I’m turning into mossman. Following in his footsteps, I’ve been browsing over all my past weather pics/videos back to 2013, looking for a snow fix and a hit of sweet nostalgia.

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

You guys are completely screwed up there.

Welcome to the club.  

[Slushy Inch]

As long as we don't get another 2015!

[JSnowlin]

Am I the only one sitting here twiddling my thumbs since 1904 waiting for it to snow again?

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yep, it’s just going to sit there and rot away with the W1 structure present. 1989 was did it much quicker with a huge swing from record +U to record -U at 10mb.

2023 is timed similarity, but it’s a weak sauce version of it. And the good cold is still over in Asia.

 

Lol I think I’m turning into mossman. Following in his footsteps, I’ve been browsing over all my past weather pics/videos back to 2013, looking for a snow fix and a hit of sweet nostalgia.

Welcome to the club.  

How many pics do you have between the 2012/13-2022/23 seasons? I am at 4,116. Funny that my phone thinks my plow attachment for my mower is a “snowmobile” though technically it’s not wrong…

[TacomaWx]

24 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not enough. Was hoping for a major grand finale! 

Still time for something later on in February…but I’m not too bullish on that yet. I get the disappointment no matter how much you get in a winter it sucks to miss out especially in this climate where it’s hard to get snow in the first place. I’m just glad that this won’t be a complete dud of a winter as it stands now. We’ve had an amazing run since 2016-2017 this winter was no exception. 

[Seattle]

31 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We did! Many are still upset tho…we had a high of 25 here and 6” of snow so far this winter. I’d understand being upset if none of that had happened prior to this but c’mon we had a good run earlier. 

The cold was legit. But that 6" was like 6 days of .5" each that melted in 12 hours and 1" going into the cold. Not exactly a real snowy picture for most of the Sound. Obviously better than .25" and ice, but I don't think anyone is contesting that.

[Requiem]

Can't be this difficult to get a bit of snow-- at least the Arctic front still has a distinct snow signature. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

I for one am very happy to see a shot of arctic air at the tail end of January, even if it’s mostly dry. This stretch of calendar has been way overdue and in this rapidly warming climate we take what we can get.

[JSnowlin]

Just now, Requiem said:

Can't be this difficult to get a bit of snow-- at least the Arctic front still has a distinct snow signature. 

If you consider life support a "distinct signature"

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, Seattle said:

The cold was legit. But that 6" was like 6 days of .5" each that melted in 12 hours and 1" going into the cold. Not exactly a real snowy picture for most of the Sound. Obviously better than .25" and ice, but I don't think anyone is contesting that.

True…we did never get more than 2” snow depth at one time. But it was pretty decent still and far from a bust. 

[Cold Snap]

40 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We did! Many are still upset tho…we had a high of 25 here and 6” of snow so far this winter. I’d understand being upset if none of that had happened prior to this but c’mon we had a good run earlier. 

I’m not that bummed this is turning into a dry blast especially since I’m already at 14” of snow for the winter with a 23/11 day as well so it’s definitely been a good one IMBY. Can’t complain if I don’t get snow out of this. At least there’s the cold temperatures to look forward to if you are into that.

[Cascadia_Wx]

26 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Further east trumps everything. 

Very true. There are inland and mountain climates well to the south of us and within the western US that clobber even Pretentius Knowitallus’s backyard.

Edited January 25 by Cascadia_Wx

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I’m not that bummed this is turning into a dry blast especially since I’m already at 14” of snow for the winter with a 23/11 day as well so it’s definitely been a good one IMBY. Can’t complain if I don’t get snow out of this. At least there’s the cold temperatures to look forward to if you are into that.

The upcoming event is still far from settled. We could very well see things change in a big way 24-48 hours before things kick off and get some snow. It doesn’t look likely now but that can always change. 

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

If you consider life support a "distinct signature"

 

[HuskyMaestro]

45 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah I’m still not 100% sure why things work this way. Probably has something to do with seasonal lag in arctic cooling (bottoms out late febryary/early march) and seasonality in wavelengths.

h/t to Brian B.

 

Upper Michigan and Buffalo are pretty interesting. I guess the Great Lakes have a seasonal lag with the temps but they still get blasted by snow yearly. 

[Bueryan]

I know this is a weather forum and so I keep my mouth shut, but snow maps at 250hrs+ are for people who go to strip clubs with hope. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Bueryan said:

I know this is a weather forum and so I keep my mouth shut, but snow maps at 250hrs+ are for people who go to strip clubs with hope. 

I always think it’s fun to imagine how your handle is pronounced 

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Upper Michigan and Buffalo are pretty interesting. I guess the Great Lakes have a seasonal lag with the temps but they still get blasted by snow yearly. 

its more about when the lakes come close to freezing over (in years they do).  the moderating effects of the lake diminish with the more the ice cover becomes

[Bueryan]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I always think it’s fun to imagine how your handle is pronounced 

Some day when we all put on chains and trudge through the snow to meet at a bar, and Frosty buys us the first round, (I think it was him who said he'd do that?) I'd love to hear your attempts.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, Bueryan said:

Some day when we all put on chains and trudge through the snow to meet at a bar, and Frosty buys us the first round, (I think it was him who said he'd do that?) I'd love to hear your attempts.

Burien

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Further east trumps everything. 

Oh, absolutely! I think some people here would be a lot happier if they lived east of the mountains.

[ShawniganLake]

Should be a few record highs in central BC today. Clinton is 45F currently. Record high is 41F from 2006

[SouthHillFrosty]

22 minutes ago, Bueryan said:

I know this is a weather forum and so I keep my mouth shut, but snow maps at 250hrs+ are for people who go to strip clubs with hope. 

Hope only works on Saturday’s at the club 

[SouthHillFrosty]

11 minutes ago, Bueryan said:

Some day when we all put on chains and trudge through the snow to meet at a bar, and Frosty buys us the first round, (I think it was him who said he'd do that?) I'd love to hear your attempts.

First round is on me. No matter if we get 5 ppl or 50 ppl 

[Doinko]

NAM shows a few snow bands in the Willamette Valley towards the end

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Should be a few record highs in central BC today. Clinton is 45F currently. Record high is 41F from 2006

Had a nice dry blast a few weeks later that year!

[Gradient Keeper]

18z NAM digs the trough a small notch further west/offshore.

[Doinko]

Minor step back on the EPS, mean gets down to -11.6c

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

First round is on me. No matter if we get 5 ppl or 50 ppl 

Nice. I'm gonna invite everyone I know.

[Deweydog]

Hey hey the NAM’s in play!!!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

53 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Very true. There are inland and mountain climates well to the south of us and within the western US that clobber even Pretentius Knowitallus’s backyard.

I guess I have a reputation to live up to now. I will strive not to disappoint.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Hey hey the NAM’s in play!!!

Time for some NAM snow maps then!  

[Gradient Keeper]

18z ICON digging southwest bit better too.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

18z ICON digging southwest bit better too.

That is trending faster... not the trend direction people in western WA would want.

[Perturbed Member]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

I’m really not that surprised this is turning out to be a dry blast because I feel like it’s been a while since one. It sucks for the Portland folks though because when they finally get a decent arctic blast it comes with little to no snow. 

This weekend's setup just isn't a big snowstorm setup for PDX. We very rarely get a sharp arctic front let alone one with enough juice for any significant snow accumulation after the front passes. IMO the top end outcome for this weekend would be 1-3 inches in PDX. More realistically it will be some snow in the air or a dusting since it will probably go dry once it is cold enough, a very familiar situation for us...

Most of the big snowstorms here come from overrunning once the cold air is already in place paired with offshore flow through the gorge. A nice BC slider can also produce good results. The late December sleet event here was very close to a significant snow storm, we had every ingredient but the top of the column was just a bit too warm. 

A good overrunning event sometime next week still seems possible at least. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

38 minutes ago, Bueryan said:

Some day when we all put on chains and trudge through the snow to meet at a bar, and Frosty buys us the first round, (I think it was him who said he'd do that?) I'd love to hear your attempts.

Idk why but this reminded me of this 

[Bueryan]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Idk why but this reminded me of this 

In 3rd grade I watched this movie three times in a day with friends. 

[Mr Marine Layer]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Idk why but this reminded me of this 

That's what you look like. I will be coming soon. 

[Tyler Mode]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I for one am very happy to see a shot of arctic air at the tail end of January, even if it’s mostly dry. This stretch of calendar has been way overdue and in this rapidly warming climate we take what we can get.

Case in point, my lowest highs in the last 12 years for the last week of January:

39.3	25th
40.3	26th
39.5	27th
42.2	28th
44.5	29th
44.6	30th
42.3	31st

[RentonHill]

temps at the end vs 12z

[RentonHill]

[Cascadia_Wx]

Today is staying solidly overcast now that PDX got that 50 out of its system yesterday. High of 45 so far.

[ShawniganLake]

Signs of spring

 

[TT-SEA]

18Z ICON

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS... we can always count on the GFS to assume accumulating snow with temps in the mid to upper 30s.  

[TT-SEA]

For reference... this is where its above freezing and below freezing at 4 p.m. on Saturday per the 18Z GFS.     Precip is already done at this point from King County northward.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For reference... this is where its above freezing and below freezing at 4 p.m. on Saturday per the 18Z GFS.     Precip is already done at this point from King County northward.

Single digits!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

41F and cloudy. Have I missed anything entertaining?

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Single digits!

That should do the trick!