PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Deweydog]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

41F and cloudy. Have I missed anything entertaining?

Somebody said something about hitting a strip club.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF output for SEA and PDX

[WeatherGeek2022]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF output for SEA and PDX

did not expect these runs to mellow out so significantly on what could've been big.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

did not expect these runs to mellow out so significantly on what could've been big.

One great GEM run and a few good GFS runs hyped many up.

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

One great GEM run and a few good GFS runs hyped many up.

euro seemed consistent with it for at least a few days prior as well.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, WeatherGeek2022 said:

euro seemed consistent with it for at least a few days prior as well.

I don't think Euro was ever that good, just cold.

[Doinko]

EPS mean was 0.5c warmer for 850mb temps. It's not like this thing has completely gone away or anything

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Single digits!

At least the torching with highs of +10 and above is over.

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

I don't think Euro was ever that good, just cold.

yeah there was some juicy cold

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

EPS mean was 0.5c warmer for 850mb temps. It's not like this thing has completely gone away or anything

Euro gets down to -12.8c over PDX

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

41F and cloudy. Have I missed anything entertaining?

https://media.giphy.com/media/hvAjltvsiJdmU3Ic8H/giphy.gif

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Somebody said something about hitting a strip club.

I'm gonna go and assume it'll be one better than the ones we have down here.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Alright bois, time to write this one off unfortunately. 

[BLI snowman]

Looks more likely that arctic air just kind of limps into the lower 48 at this point and quickly retreats. We should be thankful that we're getting anything with this fleeting block.

[Christensen87]

On to mid February! ...

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks more likely that arctic air just kind of limps into the lower 48 at this point and quickly retreats. We should be thankful that we're getting anything with this fleeting block.

Even if we just get some highs below 40 and lows below 25 it would be the coldest January 29-31 period in many years.

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

On to mid February! ...

hope wanes by then

[Deweydog]

Jet suppression!!!

[Cascadia_Wx]

12Z EPS. I mean it’s not like it shows us rocketing to well above average after the cold spell. Temps stay near to slightly below average into the long range.

[Christensen87]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12Z EPS. I mean it’s not like it shows us rocketing to well above average after the cold spell. Temps stay near to slightly below average into the long range.

Yeah, looks like at least we'll be staying cool for awhile. Yay, mountain snow! 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12Z EPS. I mean it’s not like it shows us rocketing to well above average after the cold spell. Temps stay near to slightly below average into the long range.

The mean gets to nearly -12c on this run. Not sure why everyone is talking as if this cold spell is completely gone or something

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

The mean gets to nearly -12c on this run. Not sure why everyone is talking as if this cold spell is completely gone or something

It's short, not that impressive and no snow. I am usually optimistic but there is no optimistic angle right now. Other than hoping for something later on.

[Doinko]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

It's quick, not that impressive and no snow. I am usually optimistic but there is no optimistic angle right now. Other than hoping for something later on.

EPS, Euro, GEM and CMCE show the coldest airmass for us since December 2013 with 850s -12 to -15c.

[Meatyorologist]

4 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Didn’t the Puget Sound area see some decent snow events in Late November and December? 

Speaking honestly, the Tacoma-Seattle area did not get hit too hard. We did get a couple nights with some wet slop, but nothing sticking around for more than 12 hours. Lynwood north and south of Tacoma each had their own decent snow event. Still grateful for what I got, and honestly I don't care if I get any snow this round. The cold is the main story and I'm happy to follow that.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

The mean gets to nearly -12c on this run. Not sure why everyone is talking as if this cold spell is completely gone or something

About 80% of the wintertime crowd here is just in it for the pepto maps.

[Doinko]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

About 80% of the wintertime crowd here is just in it for the pepto maps.

I would love to see some snow too but for cold this seems decently impressive, especially since we've not seen anything in this timeframe in a while. It's also just been one morning of runs that were a minor setback for cold/snow. Plenty of time for models to trend better the next few days

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Speaking honestly, the Tacoma-Seattle area did not get hit too hard. We did get a couple nights with some wet slop, but nothing sticking around for more than 12 hours. Lynwood north and south of Tacoma each had their own decent snow event. Still grateful for what I got, and honestly I don't care if I get any snow this round. The cold is the main story and I'm happy to follow that.

I was gone during the biggest event in Bothell, which was 3 inches.

[Requiem]

Really not all that much has changed? Sure, there doesn't seem to be much of a super big overrunning event unfortunately, but things get solidly cold with at least a bit of snow in the air. I'll be enjoying it all the same. I swear some here have become a little (dare I say it) spoiled with this run of genuinely great winters up north that they forget that cold and dry or warm and rainy has been a pretty frequent solution down this way.

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

The mean gets to nearly -12c on this run. Not sure why everyone is talking as if this cold spell is completely gone or something

It’ll be a hearty air mass. I’d guess at this point that things will verify around -10c or so given the now short term trends, basically around “normal” for a splitty blast with excellent anomaly placement.

The forum is dominated by those from the Puget Sound though and dry cold doesn’t go over well with most of them. Understandable, to each their own…

Edited January 25 by Deweydog

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

EPS, Euro, GEM and CMCE show the coldest airmass for us since December 2013 with 850s -12 to -15c.

Temps in the low levels that people can experience are more interesting to me.

[Slushy Inch]

Keeping my eye on the long range.

[umadbro]

Clear and cold is just that. It’s not exciting. When it snows, there’s so many things you can do. Cold without snow is pretty pointless.

[Slushy Inch]

Have no fear, long range snow maps are here.

[WeatherGeek2022]

Just now, umadbro said:

Clear and cold is just that. It’s not exciting. When it snows, there’s so many things you can do. Cold without snow is pretty pointless.

exactly. and it seems we either get our fix out of the way off the bat like we did this winter or we wait patiently until the razor edge of winter being over. I really want to believe right now but I just can't

[Christensen87]

I'm really liking the 18z run though. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Really not all that much has changed? Sure, there doesn't seem to be much of a super big overrunning event unfortunately, but things get solidly cold with at least a bit of snow in the air. I'll be enjoying it all the same. I swear some here have become a little (dare I say it) spoiled with this run of genuinely great winters up north that they forget that cold and dry or warm and rainy has been a pretty frequent solution down this way.

I will confess to having been spoiled by back-to-back winters that featured a nice snowfall right as the arctic front swept in (one of them on Christmas Eve and morning, and the other with thundersnow). Dry blasts are as you say quite a common pattern.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Have no fear, long range snow maps are here.

What’s the one thing we were missing with this current blast? GFS never showed anything in the long range. Feels like our last few solid events GFS was consistently showing snowstorms in the long range even when it’s upper level pattern was different every run

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Been to busy to follow, i was hoping for something nice south of Olympia into Portland but it's not looking to good. But this is also the pullback time frame. I would expect to some better runs tonight. 

Edited January 25 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Clear and cold is just that. It’s not exciting. When it snows, there’s so many things you can do. Cold without snow is pretty pointless.

At this stage, I am already making plans to take advantage of a clear, crisp Sunday in which the normally muddy trails at this time of year are frozen solid. Not as fun as a snow day but I will take what I can get.

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

About 80% of the wintertime crowd here is just in it for the pepto maps.

So true Jesse I noticed this too they really get jazzed over those maps even though sometimes they don’t happen in real life haha those guys are you having a good day

[Deweydog]

[WeatherGeek2022]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Been to busy to follow, i was hoping for something nice south of Olympia into Portland but it's not looking to good. But this is also the pullback time frame. I would expect to some better runs tonight. 

giveth taketh giveth taketh

[Doinko]

 

 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

giveth taketh giveth taketh

[Deweydog]

ALERT

[SouthHillFrosty]

Mid

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

 

One and done pattern  

[Doinko]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Mid

I like the 14" it shows for me

[Cascadia_Wx]

[Deweydog]

Historic.