PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[ShawniganLake]

18 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Indeed, although something tells me that Oregon posters might for some reason disagree with that sentiment.

They get a nice backdoor blast through the gorge with some flurries.  That initial cold Shot isn’t looking great for Fraser outflow. Too much easterly component.  And then we get a big snowstorm. Seems like a compromise at least.  I’m sure the euro will be different anyways. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like more ensemble improvement. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

15 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks great Seattle north again. We have seen this story before

A few days ago, the Willamette Valley was being modelled to get the goods and MBY was getting left high and dry. I expect more flip-flopping, as usual. The main takeaway is that snow seems to be getting modelled at least somewhere in the lowlands each run.

[Phil]

Yeah, January has sucked everywhere. The real cold has been locked up in Asia since Christmas.

 

[Phishy Wx]

in it to win it.  it's on

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have a feeling the long range (240 hours+ is still in flux and we could see some explosive improvement there in the next few days. 

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seems like more ensemble improvement. 

GEFS bottoms out at -9c for Vancouver. Definitely trending cooler.  500mb pattern looks to have an improved ridge over Alaska next week and possibly a wetter pattern later next week

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One other piece that is nagging at me is we are probably going to see a regionally wet pattern develop sometime in the next 3-4 weeks.

[ShawniganLake]

Coast to coast  

 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS Day 10+ HUGE improvement with persistent cold air in the Gorge. It is becoming snowy too.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF Day 1

[SouthHillFrosty]

13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

A few days ago, the Willamette Valley was being modelled to get the goods and MBY was getting left high and dry. I expect more flip-flopping, as usual. The main takeaway is that snow seems to be getting modelled at least somewhere in the lowlands each run.

Oh this is far from set ik Once the models forecast 10in+ for Mossman, it normally happens lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Coast to coast  

 

Wild stuff. 

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One other piece that is nagging at me is we are probably going to see a regionally wet pattern develop sometime in the next 3-4 weeks.

Bold call during a PNW winter 

[SnarkyGoblin]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

One other piece that is nagging at me is we are probably going to see a regionally wet pattern develop sometime in the next 3-4 weeks.

always looking onto the next thing.  it's like a drug.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS Surface temps PDX. That's more like it!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Bold call during a PNW winter 

Well we haven't had much of it this winter. The last jet extension was aimed at CA, and we just picked up the scraps. We are going to likely see a 1-2 week period where the PNW is in the bullseye at some point. There is a higher than average likelihood we pay for the overall dryness later on in spring too.  

[Gradient Keeper]

12z Euro Day 2

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

always looking onto the next thing.  it's like a drug.

Ur luv is my drug. 

[PuyallupChris]

38 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks great Seattle north again. We have seen this story before

Nooooooo. Barf.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah, January has sucked everywhere. The real cold has been locked up in Asia since Christmas.

 

The Sierra Nevada is nowhere?

[ShawniganLake]

Ukmet has a nice backdoor blast. 850s -15C into the eastern end of the Gorge. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Ukmet has a nice backdoor blast. 850s -15C into the eastern end of the Gorge. 

Yeah looks like a major blast.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ridging seems better on the long range GEFS. Just a thought. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The ridging seems better on the long range GEFS. Just a thought. 

Compared to previous runs vastly so.

[Phishy Wx]

the rare 'cold continent' pattern

those are usually fun

 

Anal logs???

[Skagit Weather]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well we haven't had much of it this winter. The last jet extension was aimed at CA, and we just picked up the scraps. We are going to likely see a 1-2 week period where the PNW is in the bullseye at some point. There is a higher than average likelihood we pay for the overall dryness later on in spring too.  

It would be nice if it came with some average to slightly below average snow levels. I was skiing yesterday up at Baker and the low elevation snowpack is still pretty pitiful.

[Phishy Wx]

I think I remember some Met on twitter mentioned the 'cold continent' thing was in play this year in late winter.  Can't remember who

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Rubus Leucodermis]

26 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

That would be the rare (and coveted) regionwide snow event if it verifies.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I think I remember some Met on twitter mentioned the 'cold continent' thing was in play this year in late winter.  Can't remember who

Ryan Maue?

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ryan Maue?

lol, doubtful.  I'm blocked from his tweets

[Cascadia_Wx]

Mostly cloudy with a low of 36 here. Completely sunny now and 41.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, just a much better GEFS run overall. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, just a much better GEFS run overall. 

What are you thinking this June will be like Andrew?

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

What are you thinking this June will be like Andrew?

mild and showery > roast balls in July

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE and EUG both hit freezing this morning. Still very socked in down here in Albany. 

Looks like Burns hit 1 this morning. Their winning streak continues. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 ECMWF, GEM, GFS