PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[SouthHillFrosty]

Significant differences at GFS hour zero

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 3 (4-run trend)

[Doinko]

Unfortunately GEM is worse for snow for PDX

[Mr Marine Layer]

38 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

20F will remain their glass floor for this winter.

What will the glass ceiling be?

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Doinko said:

Unfortunately GEM is worse for snow for PDX

Trough isn't cooperating.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Mr Marine Layer said:

What will the glass ceiling be?

99

[thickhog]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Unfortunately GEM is worse for snow for PDX

The beatings shall continue until morale improves

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 2 (4-run trend) Nah.......

[GHweatherChris]

Now that winter is over for Western Washington, does anyone have any fun plans for Groundhog Day?

[Doinko]

Cold

[Hour364Please]

Backdoor blast is coming.

Quick hitter.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Now that winter is over for Western Washington, does anyone have any fun plans for Groundhog Day?

 

 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Now that winter is over for Western Washington, does anyone have any fun plans for Groundhog Day?

 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Cold

I’m in the second shade of white!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 4 (4-run trend) Big backdoor blast.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEM Day 4 (4-run trend) Big backdoor blast.

Don't like the trend to weaken that block. Still a big blast though

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 3 (4-run trend) Nope. Trough not favorable.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEM Day 4 (4-run trend) Big backdoor blast.

Horrific. I just need to look away. 

[Seattle]

Can someone in the know be so kind as to explain why the orientation of this trough is more conducive to a backdoor blast through the Gorge as opposed to from the north? 

Is it the positioning of the N. Pacific block longitudinally, or how it angles up in Alaska, or something else?

[TT-SEA]

Wow... GFS is much drier overall.

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Wow... GFS is much drier overall.

Way warmer than the GEM too.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

9 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Unfortunately GEM is worse for snow for PDX

00z GEM showing cold rain up to Saturday 10pm even with offshore flow north of the surface low. I’m thinking most of this will fall as snow. Still some time for models to correct themselves. But it’s gonna be a close call.

[Gradient Keeper]

Well that sucked....

[Hour364Please]

Downsloping could be an issue.

Warm us right up.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... GFS is much drier overall.

Road trip! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Euro our last and only hope. Of course 12z run could bring it back, or slide it into Idaho.

[TT-SEA]

GEM

[Christensen87]

Hope GFS still brings the goods in the LR. I don’t want to lose hope. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend)

[thickhog]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

Hope GFS still brings the goods in the LR. I don’t want to lose hope. 

Hour 352 is gonna be awesome

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Way warmer than the GEM too.

GFS bottoms out at -7C over SEA.     What happened to the GFS and its cold bias?  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend) Ridge not floating over us now? Hmmm....

[TacomaWx]

Pretty noticeable pullbacks from a 500mb and 850mb temp perspective on the gfs and cmc. At this rate it might not even manage a high 35 or below here. 

[TacomaWx]

Haven’t seen jim in awhile. Usually things start looking up while he’s gone but quite the opposite is happening right meow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Been a few days since we talked about kitchen cutlery. But it’s time. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Pretty noticeable pullbacks from a 500mb and 850mb temp perspective on the gfs and cmc. At this rate it might not even manage a high 35 or below here. 

All this even with teleconnective GOLD

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS bottoms out at -7C over SEA.     What happened to the GFS and its cold bias?  

Lol 7? Be lucky to have a high colder that 36 or so.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (4-run trend)

[TT-SEA]

And somehow the GFS still pulls off an overrunning event on Tuesday!  

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Is that persistent and very strong/compact Hudson's Bay PV playing a role in this becoming a non-event?

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 8 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Frontal Snowsquall]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And somehow the GFS still pulls off an overrunning event on Tuesday!  

 

Nice! Something to look out for now.

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GEM

I am right on the border of the 1st shade of grey!!! It’s all coming together now!!!!

[RCola]

If you like dry and vaguely chilly days, this is the pattern for you. I know some will disagree, but I'd rather have buckets of rain and 50F than what's in the forecast for the next week. It'd certainly be more interesting than the long stretch of dry weather we've had. Hoping week 2 trends in a different, snowier direction.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[HuskyMaestro]

20 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Road trip! 

Perfect timing cause I've always wanted to go hiking around Metaline Falls and the wilderness there lol. 

Though Twin Peaks was filmed around Snoqualmie and North Bend, the actual town was based around there. Pretty cool pristine area of the state that doesn't get a lot of attention. 

[TT-SEA]

GFS shows a strong system and cold onshore flow next Thursday... great for the mountains.    Strong SW wind in the lowlands.  

[Deweydog]

18 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Is that persistent and very strong/compact Hudson's Bay PV playing a role in this becoming a non-event?

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 8 minutes

I think it is.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think it is.

As do I.