PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 Nice trough shaping up long range. This would be a nice mountain snow pattern.

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Perfect timing cause I've always wanted to go hiking around Metaline Falls and the wilderness there lol. 

Though Twin Peaks was filmed around Snoqualmie and North Bend, the actual town was based around there. Pretty cool pristine area of the state that doesn't get a lot of attention. 

I have never been that far NE before, think I might go out that way for my once a year solocation this year. Been only living in this state my entire 46yr life…It’s time to explore all of the awesome areas in the state. 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10 Nice trough shaping up long range. This would be a nice mountain snow pattern.

That trough is clearing dropping southeast...

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[TT-SEA]

And there it is... lowland snow with strong onshore flow.

[Christensen87]

Forget this weekend, all eyes on next weekend? 

[Slushy Inch]

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

And there it is... lowland snow with strong onshore flow.

Probably a 500ft plus event if something like this happens.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And there it is... lowland snow with strong onshore flow.

Actually flow is temporarily from the SE during that snow event.  

[Slushy Inch]

Woah

[TT-SEA]

GFS actually parks that deep trough right over us by day 12.    I think nature knows when we are leaving for Hawaii.   

Obviously a long way to go since the EPS doesn't show anything close.   But the timing would make sense.  

[MossMan]

It’s coming! 

[Slushy Inch]

Pink for me!

[thickhog]

6 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Forget this weekend, all eyes on next weekend? 

Forever and ever, amen

[MossMan]

MS just released another past windstorm video! 2006/07 was one of my favorite winters with so much action!! 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 12 nice trough

[Christensen87]

GFS always be like…

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

MS just released another past windstorm video! 2006/07 was one of my favorite winters with so much action!! 

 

We are so overdue! Though that windstorm late December was real bad, it doesn't really compare to any of the greats

[Slushy Inch]

Clearly a PSCZ.

[Doinko]

More freezing rain than snow this winter so far

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

More freezing rain than snow this winter so far

Honestly that is sad 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Great frame tbh. regional even just for a sec

[Meatyorologist]

Andrew would be immobilized by the fantasy range 00z GFS.

[SouthHillFrosty]

We still kinda get there

[Front Ranger]

38 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think it is.

I'd like to hear some rationale.

[Front Ranger]

20 minutes ago, Requiem said:

We are so overdue! Though that windstorm late December was real bad, it doesn't really compare to any of the greats

Climate change will kick in eventually!!

For those that don't get it, I'm not mocking climate change. I'm mocking the brain-dead attribution of anything extreme and/or damaging weather-wise to climate change in the media.

[Bueryan]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We still kinda get there

"Coming to the stage.. the lovely, Kandi!"

[WeatherGeek2022]

33 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Forget this weekend, all eyes on next weekend? 

February 8 I'm telling ya. Seems to be our lucky number 

 

 

Book it.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... GFS is much drier overall.

I’m in the gray! SCORE!

[Cascadia_Wx]

20 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Honestly that is sad 

Thank you for being honest.

[Cold Snap]

30 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Pink for me!

Same here!

[Slushy Inch]

There is some ensemble support for something. Nearly no temp anomly though.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

There is some ensemble support for something.

The much maligned 4-7 day range would probably look quite a bit better than that from ten days out.

[Cascadia_Wx]

The GEM was still pretty cold and didn’t back down from its 12z run, fwiw.

[Gradient Keeper]

[Doinko]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

The GEM was still pretty cold and didn’t back down from its 12z run, fwiw.

Yep, 850s down to around -14/15c. GFS was bad but it's the GFS. ICON was also good

Hoping the Euro is good for snow

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

No response to my email yet

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 1 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The much maligned 4-7 day range would probably look quite a bit better than that from ten days out.

Indeed, everything is smoothed out at this range.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Indeed, everything is smoothed out at this range.

I miss all the maps showing a thin layer of marmalade spread over the region

[Phishy Wx]

I'm telling you its coming the week of 2/13 when I'm in FL for work

[Gradient Keeper]

Is this run goes south it might be time for me to go listen to my Christmas lights again....

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF through Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Euro farthest west.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 3 ECMWF, GEM, GFS

Big difference between the GEM/Euro and GFS even at day 3. One suite of models is about to be really wrong.

[Requiem]

My money is not on the GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF through Day 3

Day 3 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 ECMWF, GEM, GFS