PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

What are you thinking this June will be like Andrew?

Warm, wet if we are lucky. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

SLE and EUG both hit freezing this morning. Still very socked in down here in Albany. 

Looks like Burns hit 1 this morning. Their winning streak continues. 

Think it’s going to take an act of god for PDX to not hit 50 today.

[Deweydog]

Euro says BREEZY and CHILLY on the way to CHURCH next Sunday.

[Gradient Keeper]

SNOW!

[Doinko]

Rain turning to snow over PDX on this run Saturday night

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 850s

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Think it’s going to take an act of god for PDX to not hit 50 today.

You don't benefit from the FOG as other do. 

[Doinko]

Nice arctic front (Central and North sound vomit reactions coming)

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Strong east winds as low level arctic blast begins

[thisisacreativename]

Coming back after a few days and seeing some hope is always fun.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 ECMWF, GEM, LOL @ GFS 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Portland is a big winter on hour 384 or the GEFS

[Phishy Wx]

gunna be cold, might refreeze our lake.  was frozen from mid-november until early Jan.

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Nice arctic front (Central and North sound vomit reactions coming)

 

Nice thing about being in the south sound is we tend to get a bit of snow when SW WA and NW OR get targeted. We will see how it plays out…long ways to go. Just nice not stressing over this one working out since we’ve already had 2 solid events here. 

[TT-SEA]

Randy.  

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 losing ridge support

[Gradient Keeper]

C'MON EPS!!!!

18z GFS in 2 hours 48 minutes

[SouthHillFrosty]

The Canadian def has some resolution errors…. Looks good even if u dumb it down 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Deweydog]

Bi block!

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Bi block!

Signs that this may be a quick hitter  we will see though lot of time. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we can get better blocking we will see a February 1989 redux middle of next week. Big dogs! Fuckiin beasts!

[TT-SEA]

If this is being driven by the MJO wave into phase 3 then it would make sense that the block won't last very long because that wave collapses almost as quickly as it is happening right now.   But I am not an MJO expert... just going on the fact that people have said the phase 3 wave is what is causing the pattern shift.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Deweydog]

So f*cking typical… the calendar flips to February and the pattern goes to sh*t.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO is so close to greatness. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[SnowWillarrive]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Randy.  

 

Probably good the bulls eye is that far south since it always drifts back north towards the Moss. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO is so close to greatness. 

Significantly farther away than the 00Z run.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

Probably good the bulls eye is that far south

Not sure this time... that all happens with a front quickly moving south on Saturday afternoon and the models are not slowing it down at all.   The inevitable northerly trend tends to happen with overrunning events.  

[Prairiedog]

Just when my frogs start chorusing it might get cold.  This might delay their gonadal wakenings.  Someone won't be happy.  They're all going to sound like a teenager who's voice is changing. 

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If this is being driven by the MJO wave into phase 3 then it would make sense that the block won't last very long because that wave collapses almost as quickly as it is happening right now.   But I am not an MJO expert... just going on the fact that people have said the phase 3 wave is what is causing the pattern shift.

Careful with those. The low pass isn’t filtered out, so the MJO isn’t isolated properly. I wouldn’t expect a significant MJO wave to cross the IPWP/dateline until the equatorial tropopause cools/raises in response to the BDC acceleration/stratwarm event.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Not sure this time... that all happens with a front quickly moving south on Saturday afternoon and the models are not slowing it down at all.   The inevitable northerly trend tends to happen with overrunning events.  

Yeah I expect that snowfall to really target further south in reality. Maybe a tiny bit up north. This feels like a scenario where Oregon wins in snowfall and we’re cold/dry. Then our shot comes at the tail end. It’s still pretty early so a lot can change but that’s the way I think this will play out. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Careful with those. The low pass isn’t filtered out, so the MJO isn’t isolated properly. I wouldn’t expect a significant MJO wave to cross the IPWP/dateline until the equatorial tropopause cools/raises in response to the BDC acceleration/stratwarm event.

My wife was reading his post behind me, walked away smirking and said exactly the same thing.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z CMCE Day 6.5 is pretty!

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Careful with those. The low pass isn’t filtered out, so the MJO isn’t isolated properly. I wouldn’t expect a significant MJO wave to cross the IPWP/dateline until the equatorial tropopause cools/raises in response to the BDC acceleration/stratwarm event.

Is there a filtered out low pass MJO forecast where its isolated properly?   

[TacomaWx]

If it does play out the way I think it will, expect cries of Agony from western WA despite getting nailed OLM north almost every winter since 2016 . Just in terms of probabilities it’s about time Oregon wins one. 

[Phishy Wx]

Cold > moderation > reload

Feb fun and games incoming

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

My wife was reading his post behind me, walked away smirking and said exactly the same thing.

mine just said it's time to get your long johns back out.  true statement

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Is there a filtered out low pass MJO forecast where its isolated properly?   

Yeah there are phase diagrams on Michael Ventrice’s site that isolate the conventional frequencies for MJO, CCKW, etc.

Though I usually just filter it out mentally looking at VP200 hovmollers. Don’t really need phase diagrams to know where the MJO is..if anything I believe they’re counterproductive because you can only filter with respect to time, and the MJO manifests nonlinearly w/ respect to time.