PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[WeatherGeek2022]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

BIG 18z run cumming up!

praying for the goods

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Stanwood HS?

No. Work. 

[Slushy Inch]

43 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Decent weeklies. Bad weeklies could have put an end to Winter.

[MossMan]

Lovely day up in one of my favorite locations in western Wa! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

Talk about being due to happen again.

[WeatherGeek2022]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Decent weeklies. Bad weeklies could have put an end to Winter.

winter on life support right now lol

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I know the southern areas got screwed... but January 2020 was WAY snowier in my area and from Seattle northward.    Much more memorable than this month.   And pretty recent.

We had 28” in January 2020.  15” last January.  This month will be the epitome of boring.  Literally nothing memorable. 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I know the southern areas got screwed... but January 2020 was WAY snowier in my area and from Seattle northward.    Much more memorable than this month.   And pretty recent.

It was one of only a few times I had a depth over 1 foot (happens more often in Bend, but not where I lived).

Most of that winter's snow fell in about 8 days. So it could have been better.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Talk about being due to happen again.

That would shake the January monkey off our back! Lolzzzzzzz!!!

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Decent weeklies. Bad weeklies could have put an end to Winter.

Even the ensembles become pretty useless outside of 2 weeks. And the weeklies aren’t any different.  They usually just end up being a muted signal of climo for whatever Enso is doing at the time. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Even the ensembles become pretty useless outside of 2 weeks. And the weeklies aren’t any different.  They usually just end up being a muted signal of climo for whatever Enso is doing at the time. 

Totally agree.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

We had 28” in January 2020.  15” last January.  This month will be the epitome of boring.  Literally nothing memorable. 

Yeah... Jared saying this event is such a milestone compared to recent January rings hallow for those living north and east of Seattle.   We have done way better just this decade. 

Basically no snow here this month other than a little sloppy wet snow that melted immediately.

 

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS for the weekend system

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS for the weekend system

Why post it? We all know it's crap.

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Why post it? We all know it's crap.

He is automated. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Why post it? We all know it's crap.

There is still a faint hope for Portland southward.

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... Jared saying this event is such a milestone compared to recent January rings hallow for those living north and east of Seattle.   We have done way better just this decade. 

Basically no snow here this month other than a little sloppy wet snow that melted immediately.

 

I think it was actually snowing here right now in 2021. We had about 4” on Jan 26/27th that year. 

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS for the weekend system

Go Castle Rock!

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think it was actually snowing here right now in 2021. We had about 4” on Jan 26/27th that year. 

I had massive accumulations on the 25th! 

[Deweydog]

Wonder if that one guy who had a flight out of PDX on Sunday actually cancelled it?

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Why post it? We all know it's crap.

Sucks we couldn’t even get a slushy inch out of this massive failure of an event. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Sucks we couldn’t even get a slushy inch out of this massive failure of an event. 

Just so everyone knows I want a lot more than a slushy inch. It's just what some local mets say to downplay a snow event.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Just so everyone knows I want a lot more than a slushy inch. It's just what some local mets say to downplay a snow event.

Would drive me crazy back in the day when Rich Marriott would use that term! Still remember November 1996 when he insisted that western Wa would get no more than a slushy inch that would be gone by late morning that one snowy early morning. Can’t remember the exact date but that slushy inch ended up being 8” lovely inches up here, even downtown Seattle got several inches…It was amazing! The low tracked south of Olympia which it wasn’t supposed to do apparently. 

Edited January 26 by MossMan

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Just so everyone knows I want a lot more than a slushy inch. It's just what some local mets say to downplay a snow event.

Way things have gone with the recent event, if anyone scores a slushy inch they will be pleased with the overperformance.

[TT-SEA]

Remember that deep cold trough on the 00Z GFS during the second half of next week with some decent lowland snow?  

Nice consistency.  

 

[WeatherGeek2022]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Remember that deep cold trough on the 00Z GFS during the second half of next week with some decent lowland snow?  

Nice consistency.  

 

it's over

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

it's over

No... but spending any time analyzing GFS runs after about day 7 is truly an exercise in futility without ensemble support.    About as meaningful as 544 hour CFS maps.  

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Remember that deep cold trough on the 00Z GFS during the second half of next week with some decent lowland snow?  

Nice consistency.  

 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

No... but spending any time analyzing GFS runs after about day 7 is truly an exercise in futility without ensemble support.    About as meaningful as 544 hour CFS maps.  

WHY WEREN’T WE TOLD ABOUT THIS EARLIER???

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

WHY WEREN’T WE TOLD ABOUT THIS EARLIER???

I have this faint hope of reaching Andrew some day. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

wonder if that anal log is on Jim's list?

[thickhog]

23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Sucks we couldn’t even get a slushy inch out of this massive failure of an event. 

Is it really a "massive failure" or just a normal weather pattern?  Models showed a marginal setup 4+ days out...we all know better than to hope for something that doesn't show wide agreement across models and isn't happening within 72 hours. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, thickhog said:

Is it really a "massive failure" or just a normal weather pattern?  Models showed a marginal setup 4+ days out...we all know better than to hope for something that doesn't show wide agreement across models and isn't happening within 72 hours. 

It's close enough that it was a tease.

[PuyallupChris]

It was too far out to get very invested, but it's still a bummer. After really missing out on our first event, it's looking like winter may end up being a dud here in The Swamp. 

[thickhog]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

One of the leading experts on the Cascadia quake is (or was?) a professor at Oregon State. I heard him give a talk on the topic once and was blown away by how absolutely ****ed our region is when (not if) the next one hits.

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

It was too far out to get very invested, but it's still a bummer. After really missing out on our first event, it's looking like winter may end up being a dud here in The Swamp. 

The swamp had a good 1-3in event earlier this year. 

[PuyallupChris]

1 minute ago, thickhog said:

One of the leading experts on the Cascadia quake is (or was?) a professor at Oregon State. I heard him give a talk on the topic once and was blown away by how absolutely ****ed our region is when (not if) the next one hits.

I have a place in Ocean Shores, and the city council there just rejected $12 million in federal funding to build a tsunami tower. Primarily because the residents are flat out grumpy and unhappy with government as a whole.  

Ocean Shores is absolutely doomed in a quake.  Even for residents near the entrance to the peninsula it's a 20+ minute drive to safety, and there is a single road leading out of the peninsula anyway. Rejecting a tsunami tower is literally accepting death for every single resident when a Cascadia quake occurs.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The swamp had a good 1-3in event earlier this year. 

Maybe a big earthquake will raise the swamp by several hundred feet. Might be good for future snow chances. 

[PuyallupChris]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The swamp had a good 1-3in event earlier this year. 

Yeah.  Still feels like kind of a dud--so many other areas got pounded, just not here!

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Just kind of a rudderless, low-impact pattern. On the bright side it’s at least kind of a clean slate for those hoping something will pop off all of the sudden. Vastly different from the end of last month when it was pretty obvious we were locking in for while.

On that image, the Greenland/NE Canada vortex is exactly where we need the blocking to be to suppress cold into SW Canada.

[Gradient Keeper]

11 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

I have a place in Ocean Shores, and the city council there just rejected $12 million in federal funding to build a tsunami tower. Primarily because the residents are flat out grumpy and unhappy with government as a whole.  

Ocean Shores is absolutely doomed in a quake.  Even for residents near the entrance to the peninsula it's a 20+ minute drive to safety, and there is a single road leading out of the peninsula anyway. Rejecting a tsunami tower is literally accepting death for every single resident when a Cascadia quake occurs.

My Aunt & Uncle live there. Yeah you'd have to go north on 115, then east on 109 quickly with a logjam of traffic. It would be a disaster situation.

[Phil]

5 hours ago, fubario said:

Paging Dr. Phil!

 

[SnowWillarrive]

The year 536 AD sounds amazing for snow lovers. I prefer a huge eruption over a quake. 

Climate historians believe that this major cooling that began in 536AD occurred because of a massive volcanic eruption. This would account for the descriptions of dark skies and the subsequent cooling of the Earth for about 18 months. Temperatures fell by 2.5°C. It even snowed in China during the summer

https://www.science.org/content/article/why-536-was-worst-year-be-alive

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

Yeah.  Still feels like kind of a dud--so many other areas got pounded, just not here!

Standards have changed as our climate has cooled. It’s been several years since we’ve seen an outright regional dud. Portions have dudded, but many have dodged the duddereenoness.

When the next when peels off, it’s gonna BURN.

[Doinko]

72 degrees in Brookings yesterday, 65 there right now

[PuyallupChris]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

My Aunt & Uncle live there. Yeah you'd have to go north on 115, then east on 109 quickly with a logjam of traffic. It would be a disaster situation.

And to humanize it a little, I was staying at my OS place when the Tonga eruption occurred and there was a significant timeframe where the Tsunami Center did not know whether or not there was going to be a tsunami, and the clock was ticking.  That feeling of uncertainty and anxiety is foreign, until it suddenly is not. 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

The year 536 AD sounds amazing for snow lovers. I prefer a huge eruption over a quake. 

Climate historians believe that this major cooling that began in 536AD occurred because of a massive volcanic eruption. This would account for the descriptions of dark skies and the subsequent cooling of the Earth for about 18 months. Temperatures fell by 2.5°C. It even snowed in China during the summer

https://www.science.org/content/article/why-536-was-worst-year-be-alive

That would be seriously depressing and very disruptive to all human life in terms of food production.

The headline literally says it would be the worst year to be alive. 

    

[Deweydog]

Wunder if anyone is gonna give the ol’ GFS a little credit on this one? I’d say it was pretty clear it was the most consistent over the last few days as all others slowly capitulated.

[Phishy Wx]

it's coming