PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Cold Snap]

Currently 40.8 and drizzle.

[MossMan]

Very light mist and 41.
.01” on the day. 

[RentonHill]

Lol gonna set a calendar reminder to check back on this verification 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Lol gonna set a calendar reminder to check back on this verification 

IT’S COMING!!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Part two of the SSW has begun now.

Eric went into this in detail in the Ag Weather update that was just released an hour ago.   He said there is no indication that this PV disruption is going to link up with the troposphere which is what it takes to alter the weather pattern and release cold air.   In essence he was saying that it looks like a SSW but its disorganized and probably not meaningful and he thinks the PV might actually end up spinning right over the North Pole again by late February as if nothing happened.    Strange behavior... but I wouldn't count on this helping us at this point.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm eyeballing IR closely and it looks like that ridge might be building west further than modeled, perhaps not as 'fat' of a block. I am sure it's all wishful thinking super wishcast mode. My wishcast mode tells me the ridge might not be as fat as modeled. My reality self says he's a moron and has no idea what's left or right, up nor down. It's worth watching IR Loop, then real-time observations, Mesoanalysis 850s/925s, YKA-OMK, YLW-OMK, OMK-PDT gradients to gauge the strength of the arctic blast into the Columbia Basin and pressure rises.

 

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

IT’S COMING!!!!!!

Its not coming, Randy. Its the GEFS, which just follows its operational around. Its a long term ensemble, which just shows the typical Nina backround state at that range. And the EPS is not on board. Sorry. I was just posting for the laughs. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Its not coming, Randy. Its the GEFS, which just follows its operational around. Its a long term ensemble, which just shows the typical Nina backround state at that range. And the EPS is not on board. Sorry. I was just posting for the laughs. 

Thanks Tim. 

[TT-SEA]

Another interesting note in the Ag Weather update was the idea that the MJO might crash back through the middle and emerge out in phase 7.    I think Jim mentioned this yesterday.    

MJO phase 7 is close to a good pattern in February.    Although the focus of the cold is in the middle of the country.    The MJO is probably a better hope for cold/snow than the SSW at this point. 

 

[Deweydog]

Drizzle ramping up.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Drizzle ramping up.

 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Drizzle ramping up.

sorry for your loss. 

[T-Town]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Drizzle ramping up.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Drizzle ramping up.

Here too... looks like we finally have ourselves a regionwide event.

[umadbro]

Can confirm the drizzle. It’s light and may not amount to much. Will keep y’all posted. 43. It’s coming!!

[MWG]

Hey at least it's something! 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here too... looks like we finally have ourselves a regionwide event.

IT CAME!!! 

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Me to winter 2022-23 on Valentine’s Day:

[MV_snow]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

We were stuck in the gunk here too... I think it is cold air damming against Cascades with NW flow aloft.    Really gross set up.   Glad its going away soon.

At this point, I’m just going to enjoy a couple of clear and chilly days Sunday and Monday. Every day this week was gunky here despite a “partly cloudy” forecast.

[RentonHill]

It’s warmer at our place in twisp than at home right now. Weird warm spike over there (at our place at least) after sunset. Says it’s 43 at our spot and 27 in the valley. Crazy! 

[Deweydog]

17 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

So, looking like the closer we get to the event, the dryer it's getting??  

Reminds me of when a young High Desert Mat would bring a girl back to his apartment.

Winter 2022-23:

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

It’s warmer at our place in twisp than at home right now. Weird warm spike over there (at our place at least) after sunset. Says it’s 43 at our spot and 27 in the valley. Crazy! 

Looks like Loup Loup hit 51 today which is crazy warm.

[MossMan]

We have gone from very light mist to very heavy drizzle!!!!!!! Epic late January event that just keeps on giving!!! Up to .06”!!!!!

[Weiner Warrior]

Conference call just now. Good news. Big snow coming February 7th. 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Sorry all of the enthusiasm put me to sleep.

00z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[TacomaWx]

I can definitely see why some people haven’t really liked this winter so far.  
 Late November-early December was mainly good in the south sound over 200’ of elevation. I think overall it wasn’t as great south of Olympia or north of Everett. Pretty so-so for people near sea level. 
 The late December event was really good north of Everett, decent as far south as Tacoma with not much but ice south of there.
 We did pretty good here but me and a few others in the south sound with a tiny bit of elevation like@SouthHillFrosty and @snow_wizard did better than just about everywhere in the lowlands besides the NW interior and BC. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

This run isn't worthy of loops, trends, or any of the above.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

This run isn't worthy of loops, trends, or any of the above.

Don’t be a Tim and torture us with these maps 

[Gradient Keeper]

Okay, I lied. This seems remotely interesting.

Day 4.5 (4-run trend)

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

This run isn't worthy of loops, trends, or any of the above.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 Nah....

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 5 Nah....

Still better

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF-GFS 10 AM Saturday. This shows a weak low developing just off the Washington Coast and the east winds soon to begin. Hmmm....

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z WRF-GFS 10 AM Saturday. This shows a weak low developing just off the Washington Coast and the east winds soon to begin. Hmmm....

Hasn’t this been shown all week?

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Hasn’t this been shown all week?

Probably. No idea I *gasp* haven't looked at the WRF in days.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z WRF-GFS 10 AM Saturday. This shows a weak low developing just off the Washington Coast and the east winds soon to begin. Hmmm....

Very weak

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF-GFS 1 AM Sunday. Decent arctic blast

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Phishy Wx]

GEM still wants to get really cold on this side

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Sensor problems tending north.

Do you think there is a problem with the station at KDLS? Their relatively high readings during the CAA in late December is what kind of clenched it for me. A simple yes or no will suffice. No squirmy lawyery hedging if you can help it  

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 hours ago, icyasf said:

2 years ago today.

That was a decent event for the central Willamette valley.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, RentonHill said:

Its not coming, Randy. Its the GEFS, which just follows its operational around. Its a long term ensemble, which just shows the typical Nina backround state at that range. And the EPS is not on board. Sorry. I was just posting for the laughs. 

Keep posting maps please. We can’t have this place dominated by just one person doing it all the time and their narrative being the only one while everyone else follows along, even though that would be their dream come true