PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[TacomaWx]

16 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

I mean there are signs.. CPC probabilistic guidance at over 50% odds of El Nino by October, much higher odds than those for a neutral year. And following three Ninas, a Nino soon should be pretty much guaranteed within the next two winters.

Jim uses his own forecasting models…it’s predicting a 5 dip nina it looks like. 

[Mr Marine Layer]

52 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Still no measurable snow in NYC this winter

Bring on the climate alarmists articles.

[MossMan]

Another beautiful morning!

40 degrees.

.55” so far on the day, 4.69” for the month. 

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Bring on the climate alarmists articles.

Thank you for your contributions 

[TT-SEA]

Always a fun time with the GFS... it barely shows it going below freezing at all with the main cold air event but then assumes it will still be cold enough for lowland snow up north when the next system arrives.  

[MossMan]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I could care less about enso. In the end 2019 was a Nino and great. 20-21 sucked and this one might if it doesn’t get its act together. 

06/07 was a weak Nino if I remember correctly? Also 2018/19 as well? I don’t follow that enough to remember but if so…I am good with taking my chances with a weak Nino. Let’s go neutral or weak Nino! 

[MossMan]

I would take this view over snow views any day…It’s amazing!! 
 

Seriously though…This screams January. Even when I was a kid (80’s) I remember so many dull January’s like this and it was so depressing. The only things that got me through was February was usually better in the snow department and I would start getting my fishing gear ready (very early) for opening day in the spring. I would also watch Hank Parker and Bill Dance every Sunday morning…I was such a fishing nut. Need to get back into that as I think the kids would have a blast as well. 
 

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM also shows snow with that next system on Tuesday.   With two models showing it now... this seems like the next period to watch.   Particularly for areas to the north and east of Seattle.  

[RentonHill]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM also shows snow with that next system on Tuesday.   With two models showing it now... this seems like the next period to watch.   Particularly for areas to the north and east of Seattle.  

The period @Deweydog originally highlighted for overperformance?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

The period @Deweydog originally highlighted for overperformance?

I don't think so... he said was actually referring to his "acceptance Wednesday" over-performing which means the models were going to take a big dump that day.   And that is what happened.    I originally thought he was talking about the middle of next week as well.  

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't think so... he said was actually referring to his "acceptance Wednesday" over-performing which means the models were going to take a big dump that day.   And that is what happened.    I originally thought he was talking about the middle of next week as well.  

we are all just pawns in his little game

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Always a fun time with the GFS... it barely shows it going below freezing at all with the main cold air event but then assumes it will still be cold enough for lowland snow up north when the next system arrives.  

Dewpoints. 

[Phishy Wx]

lol 1-3" was forecast.  ended up with 1/4" of slush and 34 degrees.  headed to 40.

 

suppose to get the blast over night into tomorrow.  down to 1 on Sunday night.  doubt it.

 

Company all hands call in 5 min.  our '22 numbers are probably as bad as the weather.

[MossMan]

The Fuzz. 

[Chris]

10 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The thing is the SWW has / is happening.  Must be some detail I'm not familiar with.

I believe you're mistaking a displaced polar vortex with a full wind reversal in the polar jet.  The latter is the SSW.  This chart kind of explains it

Here is the current GFS forecast:

And the Euro

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I can't remember EVER seing a 1053 winter high move down the bc coast and not have interesting winter weather in the area. Bellingham will feel the cold though.

[Phil]

This ain’t gonna do it.

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, Chris said:

I believe you're mistaking a displaced polar vortex with a full wind reversal in the polar jet.  The latter is the SSW.  This chart kind of explains it

Here is the current GFS forecast:

And the Euro

That EPS spaghetti. Just awful.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

This ain’t gonna do it.

Phix it Phil!! I need snow!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Might be time to start thinking this just wasn’t our year. The cold November was nice, but that’s way in the rear view now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think we are all devastated by how disappointing this winter turned out. The worm could still turn, but it now seems unlikely. The pattern is just a meandering mess. It’s been our biggest issue the whole season sadly.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

06/07 was a weak Nino if I remember correctly? Also 2018/19 as well? I don’t follow that enough to remember but if so…I am good with taking my chances with a weak Nino. Let’s go neutral or weak Nino! 

Warm neutral and weak ninos are often fairly dynamic winters

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Might be time to start thinking this just wasn’t our year. The cold November was nice, but that’s way in the rear view now. 

I bought a new lawn mower last week. Moving on!

[fubario]

Meanwhile in NZ.. Also, Thanks, Tonga.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think we are all devastated by how disappointing this winter turned out. The worm could still turn, but it now seems unlikely. The pattern is just a meandering mess. It’s been our biggest issue the whole season sadly.

Me and Jim have private messaged about this, I DON'T want to complain and look like a asss because i have had a bunch of snow but i still rate the winter lame because it wasn't a region wide event year so far. The fact is if you like winter weather you should NOT live west of the cascades at all. 6-10 days of what i consider winter weather just don't make it a good winter at all.  If everyone Had snow from Portland to Bellingham for a week then that would of been much better.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I bought a new lawn mower last week. Moving on!

I Still think February will deliver.  Mid month most likely.

[joelgombiner]

You would never know that winter is returning to the region based on the mood in here! lol 

 

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think we are all devastated by how disappointing this winter turned out. The worm could still turn, but it now seems unlikely. The pattern is just a meandering mess. It’s been our biggest issue the whole season sadly.

Not in the least IMBY.

Yes, it has been a disappointment how the coming event has fizzled into more of a dry arctic fart than a true arctic blast, but December turned out pretty darn good for me, and I had one of my earliest accumulating snowfalls since moving to this region.

[ShawniganLake]

40 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I can't remember EVER seing a 1053 winter high move down the bc coast and not have interesting winter weather in the area. Bellingham will feel the cold though.

It’s not a great setup for delivering low level cold through the canyon.  I’d guess Bellingham sees highs in the mid to upper 30s with brisk outflow and sunny skies.  

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the clouds are breaking up already in Seattle.   

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I Still think February will deliver.  Mid month most likely.

Looks like he will need to put a plow on the front of that new mower! 

[Sandy rocks]

The worst winters are dry and warm winters. It does not help the ecosystem and makes us prone to wildfires. This winter at least has had some typical weather and some nice sunny days. It was cold in November and parts of December but then we had that ice storm and a bad wind storm. I can't give a very high rating so far. Maybe February will be better. We will probably have a cold spring.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF has jumped in the ring as well for Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the clouds are breaking up already in Seattle.   

I wish. Still drizzly up here. 

[MossMan]

I am still at a B- for this winter season. D- for January itself. 

[SnowWillarrive]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF has jumped in the ring as well for Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  

A small prize. Snowier runs coming! 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

I bought a new lawn mower last week. Moving on!

Is this what you bought? 

[WeatherGeek2022]

if we get no more better than marginal snow events this winter we shall make up for it with thunderstorms in spring hopefully.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I am still at a B- for this winter season. D- for January itself. 

B+ here. An A requires a single-digit low or a storm total snowfall of a foot or more, and this winter has fallen just short on both marks. Last winter got an A (single-digit low on two mornings).

D- might be generous for this January so far, but only because the weekend freeze hasn’t happened quite yet.

[Perturbed Member]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

 

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

[Blizzard777]

19 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

it's coming

 

 

[Blizzard777]

58 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like the clouds are breaking up already in Seattle.   

Pretty yucky down here still….ugh  

46*

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

44 seems a little low for tomorrow.

[Tyler Mode]

I prefer this one...

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Indeed.  It snowed a number of times and got quite cold.  Whatcom County did really well too.  A lot of people do have reason to feel cheated though.  

Little doubt Feb will end up below normal, but who knows what the details will be.

Uh oh...

[Phishy Wx]

joke climate gunna joke

[Phishy Wx]

it only gets cold now in MT, WY, the Dakotas and MN.  plan accordingly

[Cascadia_Wx]

43 with some drizzle this morning. Made it down to 40 earlier. Looking forward to the cold mornings early next week at very least. I think most days will have trouble staying under 40 so cold nights will be the big story. We will see how much we can drag the January average down toward the 1991-2020 mean.