PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Mr Marine Layer]

5 hours ago, MossMan said:

I would take this view over snow views any day…It’s amazing!! 
 

Seriously though…This screams January. Even when I was a kid (80’s) I remember so many dull January’s like this and it was so depressing. The only things that got me through was February was usually better in the snow department and I would start getting my fishing gear ready (very early) for opening day in the spring. I would also watch Hank Parker and Bill Dance every Sunday morning…I was such a fishing nut. Need to get back into that as I think the kids would have a blast as well. 
 

 

Where is the foggy react?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF has jumped in the ring as well for Tuesday into Wednesday morning.  

Not bad. Hopefully we get more moisture to work with.

[RentonHill]

dont be sad @Cascadia_Wx we need the melt up there. The snow was so high the deer were literally walking over the tops of the orchard fences and just feasting on the trees. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Not bad. Hopefully we get more moisture to work with.

Slight chance of 1 inch very slight chance of two inches so far.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

dont be sad @Cascadia_Wx we need the melt up there. The snow was so high the deer were literally walking over the tops of the orchard fences and just feasting on the trees. 

Probably more like swimming over the tops of the fences if it was that deep.

[RentonHill]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Probably more like swimming over the tops of the fences if it was that deep.

The few days of rain/freezing rain after all the snow made a really nice 8-10 inch ice layer on top....they were literally walking with almost no compaction. it was crazy. 

[Slushy Inch]

18z RGEM

[Skagit Weather]

As of yesterday BLI is at 1.33" for the month. Unless something crazy happens this will be their 4th driest January on record behind 1949, 1985, and 1963. However, all of those months will also end up almost 10 degrees colder (or more) for the average temperature than this month. So probably safe to say this will end being one of the most boring (warmest and driest) Januaries in the last century for the North Sound.

I tried to quickly come up with a somewhat interesting way to represent this. Of course it's hard to compare precipitation and temperature so I ranked all of the last 75 years of Januaries at BLI. In terms of temperatures the warmest January received #1 (coldest was #75) and in terms of precipitation the driest January received #1 (wettest was #75). Then I summed the rankings together. So the highest possible rating was 150 (an epically cold and wet January) and the lowest possible rating was 2 (a boringly warm and dry January). Then I graphed the years here (removing 1997, 1998, and 2013 which all have bad data at BLI). Additionally the color of the dots corresponds to the average temperature for the month (colder than the 30 year average are blue, warmer are red) and the size of the dots corresponds to the total precipitation that month.

It's pretty clear that 2023, 1994, and 1981 are the worst (most boring) years. It's a little hard to decipher the "best" years because Januaries that are quite cold also tend to be dry (and thus don't get much of a bump from their precipitation rankings). Using this metric you might think 1982 was the most interesting January. BLI had 16.4" of snow and 9.3" of rain and an average temperature of 35.1F (5F below today's 30 year average), but I think many would agree the shockingly blue January 1950 lurking off to the left was more "interesting."

Edit: added an average temperature key to clarify

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

The few days of rain/freezing rain after all the snow made a really nice 8-10 inch ice layer on top....they were literally walking with almost no compaction. it was crazy. 

Ah, yes, the Pacific Northwest and rain-on-snow events even on the east slopes.

I once went cross-country skiing in 6 feet of powder in the Rockies. Whenever I fell (and I fell a lot because it was my first time on X-C skis) I definitely went swimming.

[Deweydog]

22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

SSW will come in late Feb with effects not felt at the surface until late March when its really doesn't matter.  we'll string along a cool damp spring with some chilly nights into June with temps roaring to triple digits in early july followed by smoke season in early August that will wane in early october with an early season AR

words

 

 

spaces

 

 

something else

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS definitely board with mid-week snow... most of this happens Tuesday night into Wednesday.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Gonna happen

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS definitely board with mid-week snow... most of this happens Tuesday night into Wednesday.

I get f'd but it's just one run.

[WeatherGeek2022]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Gonna happen

druncle really out here trying

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

druncle really out here trying

Whatcom county has a big advantage again.

[High Desert Mat?]

I’m so tired of these winters. I’m thinking of moving to Des Moines, IA. Do they average temps lower than Portland or should I move further north? 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Gonna happen

That blue needs to trend south. 

[WeatherGeek2022]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Whatcom county has a big advantage again.

that D**n whatcom county...

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS definitely board with mid-week snow... most of this happens Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Looks like it’s trending a little snowier, too! Still far enough out that I’m not gonna celebrate yet.

[SouthHillFrosty]

I propose kicking all  Whatcom County posters to the BC Forums. Everybody that approves, pls drop a weanie reaction. 

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

that D**n whatcom county...

 

[JSnowlin]

11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I propose kicking all  Whatcom County posters to the BC Forums. Everybody that approves, pls drop a weanie reaction. 

 

While they're doing that let's also make the Olympics thirty miles longer to the south.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That blue needs to trend south. 

Just shift all those colors south. Blue for you, pepto pink for me!

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Just shift all those colors south. Blue for you, pepto pink for me!

I would be okay with that!! Let’s do it! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

My entry into the forecast contest last night.

Took a closer look at the models and this looks like a non event from a snowfall perspective. It will still get cold with frigid overnight temperatures though. While I’m not predicting any measureable snow for SEA and PDX, most people should at least see snowflakes in the air at some point before drying out Saturday night. Some of the foothills I can see getting a dusting to 0.5 inches or so. Also the further you go down the Willamette Valley, the better chances to see some light accumulations. Eugene I can see getting 0.5”. It’s going to be a cold end to January! 
 

SEA-

1/28: 44/34 

1/29: 39/29

1/30: 39/25

1/31: 40/29

 

PDX-

1/28: 46/36 

1/29: 39/29

1/30: 41/24

1/31: 43/27

[Sandy rocks]

I am surprised that you have some sun in Camas. I am due south of you in Sandy and its been drizzly all day.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I would be okay with that!! Let’s do it! 

Seriously, though: Wednesday is five days out. This is just getting out of deep clown range into plain old clown range. Details could well change (and probably will).

[Deweydog]

Just imagine if this were shown at 240 hours instead of 24. Oh the possibilities…

[MossMan]

Omak currently at 39 must feel like a massive heatwave for them right now! 

[Deweydog]

Darkness approaching from the NE!

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Darkness approaching from the NE!

It’s coming!!! 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Looks like it’s trending a little snowier, too! Still far enough out that I’m not gonna celebrate yet.

Nahhh... go ahead and celebrate now.    Seeing it on a GFS snow map is pretty much as good as it actually happening.

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

As of yesterday BLI is at 1.33" for the month. Unless something crazy happens this will be their 4th driest January on record behind 1949, 1985, and 1963. However, all of those months will also end up almost 10 degrees colder (or more) for the average temperature than this month. So probably safe to say this will end being one of the most boring (warmest and driest) Januaries in the last century for the North Sound.

I tried to quickly come up with a somewhat interesting way to represent this. Of course it's hard to compare precipitation and temperature so I ranked all of the last 75 years of Januaries at BLI. In terms of temperatures the warmest January received #1 (coldest was #75) and in terms of precipitation the driest January received #1 (wettest was #75). Then I summed the rankings together. So the highest possible rating was 150 (an epically cold and wet January) and the lowest possible rating was 2 (a boringly warm and dry January). Then I graphed the years here (removing 1997, 1998, and 2013 which all have bad data at BLI). Additionally the color of the dots corresponds to the average temperature for the month (colder than the 30 year average are blue, warmer are red) and the size of the dots corresponds to the total precipitation that month.

It's pretty clear that 2023, 1994, and 1981 are the worst (most boring) years. It's a little hard to decipher the "best" years because Januaries that are quite cold also tend to be dry (and thus don't get much of a bump from their precipitation rankings). Using this metric you might think 1982 was the most interesting January. BLI had 16.4" of snow and 9.3" of rain and an average temperature of 35.1F (5F below today's 30 year average), but I think many would agree the shockingly blue January 1950 lurking off to the left was more "interesting."

Edit: added an average temperature key to clarify

Didn't realize it was that dry up there. PDX is at 3.20" and Eugene 2.54".

Which pales in comparison to the 9.29" at SFO, 7.54" at SAC, and 9.26" at RDD. Oftentimes such heavy rainfall down there in midwinter is caused by jet suppression and coupled with PNW cold (see Jan 2017, Feb 2019, etc). Not this time, where we actually torched.

[Tyler Mode]

26 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Darkness approaching from the NE!

Wish the cold air was moving that quickly!

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I’m so tired of these winters. I’m thinking of moving to Des Moines, IA. Do they average temps lower than Portland or should I move further north? 

Iowa is flat AF.  just go to MT or maybe Northern New England

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Tyler Mode said:

Wish the cold air was moving that quickly!

Made it from central Manitoba to Ellensburg in two hours!

[RentonHill]

How often do you see 45 in Winthrop and 30 in Omak?

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

How often do you see 45 in Winthrop and 30 in Omak?

whenever there's an inversion?

[TT-SEA]

@MossMan Look what we got in the mail today.   Did not sign up or pay for anything.  Fancy invitation and free tickets from the Seattle Boat Show to the Uncorked wine event and the Sails and Ales beer event.   I wonder if buying the new boat last year triggered something in their system and put us on the VIP list?  Fools!   We can't afford their expensive boats.  Summer Dreamin' for sure. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I’m so tired of these winters. I’m thinking of moving to Des Moines, IA. Do they average temps lower than Portland or should I move further north? 

Portland, Maine?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Spring weeds are here

[Prairiedog]

NYC has not had any snow so far if I have my facts right.  It's been since 1973 since they've gone this long without.  I feel much better now.  NYC and PDX are on equal footing this winter for the most part so far. 

[High Desert Mat?]

28 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Iowa is flat AF.  just go to MT or maybe Northern New England

I would but I was thinking maybe somewhere colder like Missouri, Tennessee, or maybe even Oklahoma. That’s why I was thinking Iowa. Montana and northern New England just seem like they don’t get enough cold and snow for me. 

[MossMan]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

@MossMan Look what we got in the mail today.   Did not sign up or pay for anything.  Fancy invitation and free tickets from the Seattle Boat Show to the Uncorked wine event and the Sails and Ales beer event.   I wonder if buying the new boat last year triggered something in their system and put us on the VIP list?  Fools!   We can't afford their expensive boats.  Summer Dreamin' for sure. 

Guess me buying a boat that was new in 1994 from a private party did not get me on the same VIP list lol! 

[Phil]

3 hours ago, AbbyJr said:

This is really confusing and perhaps we need to find a new term or manner by which to address the matter. I say this because it makes no sense to suggest a sudden warming in the stratosphere is not a sudden stratospheric warming event. While I'm not disagreeing with the experts or the science, I am questioning how a sudden warming in the stratosphere could not be regarded as a sudden stratospheric warming.

Another question would be what exactly causes the full wind reversal? Is it the result of the sudden stratospheric warming or is it something separate that finalizes the event? Now I admit that I don't know much at all about this subject so I can see how people who aren't experts like myself would assume that if the stratosphere warms suddenly, that it's a sudden stratospheric warming. That would be my assumption as well.

If the vortex moves far enough off the pole, splits, etc, the mean zonal wind above 60N latitude (circumglobally) becomes easterly instead of westerly. That is what is referred to as a “wind reversal”.

A stratospheric warming is ongoing, but it does not meet the criteria for a SSW. What really matters is the dynamical structure of the vortex, not the temperature rise (which is actually a result of the weakening of the vortex, not a cause).

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

As of yesterday BLI is at 1.33" for the month. Unless something crazy happens this will be their 4th driest January on record behind 1949, 1985, and 1963. However, all of those months will also end up almost 10 degrees colder (or more) for the average temperature than this month. So probably safe to say this will end being one of the most boring (warmest and driest) Januaries in the last century for the North Sound.

I tried to quickly come up with a somewhat interesting way to represent this. Of course it's hard to compare precipitation and temperature so I ranked all of the last 75 years of Januaries at BLI. In terms of temperatures the warmest January received #1 (coldest was #75) and in terms of precipitation the driest January received #1 (wettest was #75). Then I summed the rankings together. So the highest possible rating was 150 (an epically cold and wet January) and the lowest possible rating was 2 (a boringly warm and dry January). Then I graphed the years here (removing 1997, 1998, and 2013 which all have bad data at BLI). Additionally the color of the dots corresponds to the average temperature for the month (colder than the 30 year average are blue, warmer are red) and the size of the dots corresponds to the total precipitation that month.

It's pretty clear that 2023, 1994, and 1981 are the worst (most boring) years. It's a little hard to decipher the "best" years because Januaries that are quite cold also tend to be dry (and thus don't get much of a bump from their precipitation rankings). Using this metric you might think 1982 was the most interesting January. BLI had 16.4" of snow and 9.3" of rain and an average temperature of 35.1F (5F below today's 30 year average), but I think many would agree the shockingly blue January 1950 lurking off to the left was more "interesting."

Edit: added an average temperature key to clarify

I would have made y-axis temp, x-axis precip, and labeled each dot with a year.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I’m so tired of these winters. I’m thinking of moving to Des Moines, IA. Do they average temps lower than Portland or should I move further north? 

It’s a good compromise if you want frequent severe weather too.

Edit: just caught on. lmao

[Phishy Wx]

15 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I would but I was thinking maybe somewhere colder like Missouri, Tennessee, or maybe even Oklahoma. That’s why I was thinking Iowa. Montana and northern New England just seem like they don’t get enough cold and snow for me. 

MT gets tons of snow and balls cold.

 

Maybe the UP of Michigan.  get your lake effect on

[Phishy Wx]

with that said we recently purchased some land in SW VA not far from the Blue Ridge Parkway near Roanoke.  4 seasons and closer to fam in SC and MD.  plan to build over there in about 10-12 ish years when we approach retirement.  move over there full time when we retire.  VA is a legal weed state now too, the only one in the South, for Recreational and cultivation if you're so inclined. 

[Phil]

Coastal Maine actually does bear a striking resemblance to the westside PNW. Especially the farther north you go. The hilly, conifer dominated landscape is almost a clone.

I’ve been to both places so I have at least some perspective.

[High Desert Mat?]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s a good compromise if you want frequent severe weather too.

Edit: just caught on. lmao

It’s actually not that bad in central Oregon. Winters have been kind of lame lately, relatively, but we’ve had highs around 10 thus far and it looks like Sunday will be in the teens most of the day. The snow though, it’s been sparse lately. I think I’ve had about 16” so far this winter but it hasn’t stuck around very long.