PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z gfs was pretty solid. 

[Timmy]

49 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hope it was a fun vacation.

Pretty solid, good to disconnect. But the weather kinda sucked, pretty cool in the gulf this week. Cozumel was nice but torrential downpour in the afternoon, we ended up with almost 2 days of tank top weather the rest was actually pretty cool and windy!

[Timmy]

It does look we may get some snow tonight in Columbia country though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Spokane is getting snow this morning? 

[Timmy Supercell]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like Spokane is getting snow this morning? 

Yup

[Timmy Supercell]

I think the NWS Spokane facebook page was mentioning they're not far from reaching their seasonal average, if they haven't done it already with this next snow.

[TT-SEA]

43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like Spokane is getting snow this morning? 

They have these cool new things called web cams that allow you to see what is happening in a place.   Go to Google and type "Spokane traffic cams".   Takes about as much time as it does to type your post asking if it's snowing. 

I joke.   But it does appear to be snowing there. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I think the NWS Spokane facebook page was mentioning they're not far from reaching their seasonal average, if they haven't done it already with this next snow.

Very nice. We are at 16.1” now, a little less than half of average. But February and March are our biggest snow months so we are in decent shape. If we squeeze out 3/4” we can pass the vaunted winter of 2012-13. 

 

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

They have these cool new things called web cams that allow you see what is happening in a place.   Go to Google and type "Spokane traffic cams".   Takes about as much time as it does to type your post asking if it's snowing. 

I joke.   But it does appear to be snowing there. 

Thanks for the advice sir. 

Edited January 28 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Kayla]

Picked up around 8" of snowfall overnight. 24hr total is up to 15". Base depth is about 35" now. Our local ski hill has picked up 3ft of snow over the past 24 hours so it has been quite the dump!

Arctic front passed through earlier this morning. Still snowing and 7F. Wind chills around -10F

[MossMan]

The coolish air must be arriving as it’s down to 34 and mostly cloudy. 

[Timmy Supercell]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very nice. We are at 16.1” now, a little less than half of average. But February and March are our biggest snow months so we are in decent shape. If we squeeze out 3/4” we can pass the vaunted winter of 2012-13. 

Dec 2012 was a solid month for snow, then a cold January but was also a pretty boring month, very little snow to go around in late winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NWS forecast for my place is 30/21, 35/18, 38/24. Not bad. 

[TT-SEA]

Even as the cold air is arriving now... the GFS and ECMWF and still not in agreement.   The ECMWF shows the 850mb temp over SEA bottoming out at -10C tomorrow morning while the new 12ZGFS shows about -6C.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Frost!

06Z GFS still calling for snow IMBY…

… though the operational is a snowy outlier, so caution on those amounts.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wind is rippin this morning. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wind is rippin this morning. 

Are you in Oklahoma?  Isn't it always ripping out there?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Are you in Oklahoma?  Isn't it always ripping out there?

Yes and yes.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12Z GFS cuts back on the snow amounts. Not a surprise, given how the 06Z operational was an outlier.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

12Z GFS cuts back on the snow amounts. Not a surprise, given how the 06Z operational was an outlier.

I’m in the grey! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I’m in the grey! 

There does seem to be a definite southern trend in the snow coverage in overnight runs.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Flurries for PDX tonight?

[snow_wizard]

A chilly and foggy morning out there.  Currently 38 here.

Prince George is at 7 so there is some cold air to work with.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a terrible GFS run, long range is Kold again. 

[snow_wizard]

The models are becoming increasingly bullish on the MJO staying quite robust and entering the Maritime Continent region a bit later on.  Good chance we are going to get another shot at some cold.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not a terrible GFS run, long range is Kold again. 

I think a legit cold Feb is on the table.  Really weird how both Jan and Feb are in such a rut right now.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The models are becoming increasingly bullish on the MJO staying quite robust and entering the Maritime Continent region a bit later on.  Good chance we are going to get another shot at some cold.

LOL, it will end up being yet another President’s Day Special. Just wait and see.

Optimal sun angles are just so passé.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not a terrible GFS run, long range is Kold again. 

Perhaps a 2021 Valentines Day weekend redux! 

[snow_wizard]

Whatever your opinion on the matter, an SSW is happening right now.  Not sure about all of the talk of the details being wrong, but it's there.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Perhaps a 2021 Valentines Day weekend redux! 

Feb has been the bomb lately.  Just so many good examples beginning in 2011.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jim is so right. Big league potential mid month. 

[SnowWillarrive]

40 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Flurries for PDX tonight?

Castle rock big winner. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Jim is so right. Big league potential mid month. 

Even in the past mid Feb has had some of the best February events on record.  It's kind of the end of the period that can deliver an absolute top tier event.

[TT-SEA]

Are we jinxing February before it even starts?  

[snow_wizard]

Not sure why anyone would doubt the MJO connection to this.  Right when the MJO exploded in region 3 is when the models really started to go nuts over this blocking regime.  The block hasn't changed much from original expectation.  The details are what deballed this.  I would take my chances with this basic 500mb pattern any day.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Are we jinxing February before it even starts?  

I'm still not totally sold on there being a big cold wave, but the chances are very high the month will end up a solid minus.

[westcoastexpat]

11 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This kind of says the reports of the death of La Nina are a bit premature.

The transition from Nina to Nino typically starts at Nino 1+2 and transitions westward with 3.4 being last to warm.

 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm still not totally sold on there being a big cold wave, but the chances are very high the month will end up a solid minus.

Lots can change.    But a colder than normal February can still be completely forgettable considering the average high in the 50s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Are we jinxing February before it even starts?  

Probably. I’m feeling snow at our elevations though. 

[westcoastexpat]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lots can change.    But a colder than normal February can still be completely forgettable considering the average high in the 50s.

Agreed, I don't care about a negative anomaly for a 28 day period. I care about an actual winter event with snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful day in Tulsa. Windy, by a Tim-tastic 58. Hate to admit it, but I love days like this in January. Temps won’t get out of the 30s though tomorrow. It’s interesting to compare Tulsa to when I first moved here in 2006, and then compare Portland to what it was like back then. 🫠

Edited January 28 by SilverFallsAndrew

[RentonHill]

27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Whatever your opinion on the matter, an SSW is happening right now.  Not sure about all of the talk of the details being wrong, but it's there.

Did you just skip over the entire discussion between @AbbyJrand @Phil yesterday?

[BLI snowman]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lots can change.    But a colder than normal February can still be completely forgettable considering the average high in the 50s.

Feeling like the pattern stays fairly progressive from here. Maybe a deep transient trough or two but with any cold offshore flow probably relegated to the most northern areas if at all.

[Phishy Wx]

A surprise 2" late overnight/early this morning (I went to bed at 1:30am was no snow, woke up at 9am to 2"). sunny now and the winds are picking up.  Some blowing and drifting would love to see a couple more negative temps before we put a fork in this winter.

29  WC 20

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Feeling like the pattern stays fairly progressive from here. Maybe a deep transient trough or two but with any cold offshore flow probably relegated to the most northern areas if at all.

Good call. 

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

And winter weather advisory issued starting around 4 PM.

that's what we just had

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Feeling like the pattern stays fairly progressive from here. Maybe a deep transient trough or two but with any cold offshore flow probably relegated to the most northern areas if at all.

That is my sense as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

That is my sense as well.

You and I are gonna do well as the month progresses. 

[Phishy Wx]

wonder if we get a late season finale like 2019 (late feb/early march)

we had a decent storm followed by ground blizzards around March 1st that year

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You and I are gonna do well as the month progresses. 

I am not feeling it for my area yet... but your area being farther south and at a higher elevation is likely to do better.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is less favorable for the northern areas with the mid-week system.