PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not sure many people will be telling family and friends about no snow at all and highs in the 30s.   But I get that it's a big deal to some of you.   In this case... there isn't much threat of the 'telling everyone' jinx. 

Unless of course the GFS is right and then it's game on!

Horrific. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Deweydog]

I hope the GFS knows I have not talked NEARLY as much sh*t about it compared to others.

[Gradient Keeper]

Thursday 00z runs I wonder how different Day 6+ looks then.

[Doinko]

21 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Some big boy totals are skewing the mean. The potential for a big snow is caused by a trough undercutting the ridge, possibly with north flow still in place. Four members is a lot to have for 20+ inch snow falls.

What's it like for PDX?

[kokaneekidz]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I suppose that would be okay. 

This is way more believe able. 6" for Coupeville and 20" for Arlington. Actually has a chance of panning out as such 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

What's it like for PDX?

[Doinko]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Wow, some big members

[SpaceRace22]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Snow maps are next to meaningless more than a couple days out. Fun to look at and dream, yeah yeah...

Main takeaway from the Euro was the setup in the realistic range 4-5 days out for a significant cold event looks great. Big improvement. 

Yeah, the harder part is getting the cold air in place. Precip is the easy part up there and by far the most subject to change until within the mid range. As someone who would rather see snow over extreme cold, I'd rather be seeing bittery cold but 0 snow model runs right now than a bunch of borderline, 32 degree snowstorms with 3 foot snow totals but no arctic air for hundreds of miles.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Snow maps are next to meaningless more than a couple days out. Fun to look at and dream, yeah yeah...

Main takeaway from the Euro was the setup in the realistic range 4-5 days out for a significant cold event looks great. Big improvement. 

The 00Z ECMWF run tonight is worse than the 00Z run last night... it was still reloading at day 10 on that run.  

Moisture might actually end up being a problem with this event which has been rare lately.  But we all know that can change.   

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Members 16 and 24! The Rich Marriott members! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

21 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Sea level snow south of San Francisco on this run, lol.

About as likely to materialize as that -17 in Salem.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z ECMWF run tonight is worse than the 00Z run last night... it was still reloading at day 10 on that run.  

Moisture might actually end up being a problem with this event which has been rare lately.  But we all know that can change.   

It’s over.

[SpaceRace22]

I'm curious, is it even remotely possible for the PNW to get a pattern that is conducive to sea effect snow (ie what western Japan gets), or do the mountains in BC/AB just flat out make it impossible for that kind of arctic air to track over the ocean in any meaningful fashion?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not sure many people will be telling family and friends about no snow at all and highs in the 30s.   But I get that it's a big deal to some of you.   In this case... there isn't much threat of the 'telling everyone' jinx. 

Unless of course the GFS is right and then it's game on!

Exactly. Hard to even get excited about the ridiculous crap the gfs is spitting out and it shows a bunch of snow here too. I'm sure there will probably be a 1-3 inches event somewhere between Salem and Olympia.  Looks like 3-4 days in the 30-35 range which is impressive on its own. 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Horrific. 

As modeled by the 00Z ECMWF... I probably wouldn't say anything to my family at any point because there is barely anything that they would even notice over the next 10 days.   

But if I knew anything close to the GFS was going to verify then I would probably be waking them and holding a family Zoom meeting right now.   

(my wife is in MN taking care of her dad and my sons are in Seattle and Pullman hence the need for Zoom)

[RentonHill]

EPS day 6 vs 12z

[Deweydog]

RIP winter

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I'm curious, is it even remotely possible for the PNW to get a pattern that is conducive to sea effect snow (ie what western Japan gets), or do the mountains in BC/AB just flat out make it impossible for that kind of arctic air to track over the ocean in any meaningful fashion?

Totally possible. It is what the famed short track over water scenario does: cold air spills off the central BC coast then loops back and hits OR and WA after getting juiced up with Pacific moisture.

On a more local scale, the northern Olympic Peninsula and the east coast of Vancouver Island often get sea effect snow when the Fraser outflow is going.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

EPS day 6 vs 12z

Heights?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not sure many people will be telling family and friends about no snow at all and highs in the 30s.   But I get that it's a big deal to some of you.   In this case... there isn't much threat of the 'telling everyone' jinx. 

Unless of course the GFS is right and then it's game on!

Sorry, that doesn’t show what I want to happen so I am throwing it out. Science!

[RentonHill]

EPS day 7

 

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I'm curious, is it even remotely possible for the PNW to get a pattern that is conducive to sea effect snow (ie what western Japan gets), or do the mountains in BC/AB just flat out make it impossible for that kind of arctic air to track over the ocean in any meaningful fashion?

I think something like January 1880? I don't know much about it but it was something like 5ft of snow in Seattle on a few days while temps were pretty marginal

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I'm curious, is it even remotely possible for the PNW to get a pattern that is conducive to sea effect snow (ie what western Japan gets), or do the mountains in BC/AB just flat out make it impossible for that kind of arctic air to track over the ocean in any meaningful fashion?

In modern history, February 1989 was probably closest to this, with a Diet Coke version in December 2021. I believe there was some Ocean Effect stuff in 1989 as well as significant freezing spray. I wish to high heaven I could find the VHS tapes from that event. Some of the ice accretions in the ports were astonishing.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Omg

[Slushy Inch]

Thats a nice improvement.

[Doinko]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Thats a nice improvement.

Some really cold members will probably show up on this EPS run

[RentonHill]

Day 89er

 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Day 89er

 

What was the last run's heights?

[RentonHill]

Day 9

 

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

In modern history, February 1989 was probably closest to this, with a Diet Coke version in December 2021. I believe there was some Ocean Effect stuff in 1989 as well as significant freezing spray. I wish to high heaven I could find the VHS tapes from that event. Some of the ice accretions in the ports were astonishing.

A YouTube search netted me nothing but a bunch of ice videos from this December.   It conveniently ignored the February 1989 at the start of my search criteria.   

But here is a video of people slipping and sliding in Seattle from last month... enjoy!

https://youtu.be/EnJ2M6HBjdc

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Omg

 

[RentonHill]

A few more big changes and we’re in business. Day 10 vs 12z

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A YouTube search netted me nothing but a bunch of ice videos from this December.   It conveniently ignored the February 1989 at the start of my search criteria.   

But here is a video of people slipping and sliding in Seattle from last month... enjoy!

https://youtu.be/EnJ2M6HBjdc

It’s been a decades long search. My mom SWEARS they were never thrown out and are somewhere. I took a lot of the video on 2/3 as my dad and I roamed around. There’s video of whiteout stuff on 2/2 as well. Mom is a liar.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

A few more big changes and we’re in business. Day 10 vs 12z

There's the undercutting, big snow potential with that!

[TT-SEA]

For those scoring at home... here is the 00Z ECMWF temp output for SEA and PDX.    

 

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the control run is almost identical to the ECMWF run through day 10.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the control run is almost identical to the ECMWF run through day 10.

What's your point?

[snow_wizard]

Colder trend on the EPS continues.

I'm seriously wondering if the SSW completion about 10 days from now could prolong this coming cold wave, or give us a shot at another later on.