PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea it was a rough approximation. Hard to model ride at a bar

Oh to be young again…

[Cascadia_Wx]

49/40 day here with scattered light showers at times, some afternoon sunbreaks. My sub-50 streak (which started on 1/16) remains alive and well. Should make it through the end of the month now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oof. Some ugly runs tonight. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

If they pull it off, tomorrow will be 100 straight days below 70 at PDX.

The problem with this online (and real?) persona is that it's *very* hard to tell the difference between your sarcasm and being dead serious.

It's annoying and refreshing all at once.

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

The problem with this online (and real?) persona is that it's *very* hard to tell the difference between your sarcasm and being dead serious.

It's annoying and refreshing all at once.

That’s when sarcasm is at its best. 

[Perturbed Member]

 

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[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

 

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Shows an inch or more in parts north and west of the metro area. That would be nice 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

 

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Clown range.

[Doinko]

HRRR is decently snowy by Portland standards as well

[Cold Snap]

Currently 42.5 and light rain. I’m honestly looking forward to the sunny days after being stuck in the drizzle for so long. Even if they are relatively chilly days.

[Cloud]

The weather here in Viet Nam in January has been absolutely perfect compared to last September. Mid-70s to low 80s with low humidity. This is our stay at the Coastal City of Nha Trang. 
 

At one point last night it got real windy and broke stuff

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1-16 500mb Height Anomaly

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

 

[snow_wizard]

59 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oof. Some ugly runs tonight. 

I kind of disagree.  The GFS looks chilly overall to me.

[snow_wizard]

This kind of says the reports of the death of La Nina are a bit premature.

[snow_wizard]

Sure seeing lot of indications the Feb 10 to Feb 15 period might be a period to watch for things to get interesting again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I kind of disagree.  The GFS looks chilly overall to me.

Maybe a little chilly, but overall more of the same. 

[MossMan]

The heavy drizzle is back!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 1-16. Pretty good signal for a chilly air mass long range. Might be worth keeping an eye on the 2/9 - 2/15 time frame.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS Day 1-16. Pretty good signal for a chilly air mass long range. Might be worth keeping an eye on the 2/9 - 2/15 time frame.

I’m guessing these troughs focus on CA, and we end up with sloppy 2nds. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1-10 500mb Height Anomaly. Not much going on. We see a mixture of relatively weak, areas of transitory high pressure and equally weak systems impacting the area. No big storms. No cold, arctic air pattern.

10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m guessing these troughs focus on CA, and we end up with sloppy 2nds. 

Let me check.

Rainfall totals

Snowfall totals

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

The problem with this online (and real?) persona is that it's *very* hard to tell the difference between your sarcasm and being dead serious.

It's annoying and refreshing all at once.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Wednesday morning still looks like it might be interesting up here.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

31 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Let me check.

Rainfall totals

Snowfall totals

And another GFS run forecasts snow for Santa Barbara.

[WeatherGeek2022]

18 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And another GFS run forecasts snow for Santa Barbara.

snow in socal? impossible.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z CMCE

[Gradient Keeper]

IR Imagery

The initial backdoor arctic boundary edging into northeast Washington. The main arctic front and bitter upper trough is still well north up in Alberta and Saskatchewan, but is sliding southwestward. Analyzing the pattern over the Pacific, ridge, and arctic trough we could see a significant chunk of this bitter air spill into eastern Washington and the Columbia Basin. We'll have watch Mesoanalysis 925/825mb charts today and pressure gradients over the Columbia Basin back to The Dalles to monitor the progress of the arctic air.

[Timmy]

Just got back to port from our cruise. No internet all week was glorious! But pretty bummed to see this cold spell never materialized in to anything other than a little cold.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

37 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Just got back to port from our cruise. No internet all week was glorious! But pretty bummed to see this cold spell never materialized in to anything other than a little cold.

Hope it was a fun vacation.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z gfs was pretty solid. 

[Timmy]

49 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hope it was a fun vacation.

Pretty solid, good to disconnect. But the weather kinda sucked, pretty cool in the gulf this week. Cozumel was nice but torrential downpour in the afternoon, we ended up with almost 2 days of tank top weather the rest was actually pretty cool and windy!

[Timmy]

It does look we may get some snow tonight in Columbia country though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Spokane is getting snow this morning? 

[Timmy Supercell]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like Spokane is getting snow this morning? 

Yup

[Timmy Supercell]

I think the NWS Spokane facebook page was mentioning they're not far from reaching their seasonal average, if they haven't done it already with this next snow.

[TT-SEA]

43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like Spokane is getting snow this morning? 

They have these cool new things called web cams that allow you to see what is happening in a place.   Go to Google and type "Spokane traffic cams".   Takes about as much time as it does to type your post asking if it's snowing. 

I joke.   But it does appear to be snowing there. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

16 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I think the NWS Spokane facebook page was mentioning they're not far from reaching their seasonal average, if they haven't done it already with this next snow.

Very nice. We are at 16.1” now, a little less than half of average. But February and March are our biggest snow months so we are in decent shape. If we squeeze out 3/4” we can pass the vaunted winter of 2012-13. 

 

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

They have these cool new things called web cams that allow you see what is happening in a place.   Go to Google and type "Spokane traffic cams".   Takes about as much time as it does to type your post asking if it's snowing. 

I joke.   But it does appear to be snowing there. 

Thanks for the advice sir. 

Edited January 28 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Kayla]

Picked up around 8" of snowfall overnight. 24hr total is up to 15". Base depth is about 35" now. Our local ski hill has picked up 3ft of snow over the past 24 hours so it has been quite the dump!

Arctic front passed through earlier this morning. Still snowing and 7F. Wind chills around -10F

[MossMan]

The coolish air must be arriving as it’s down to 34 and mostly cloudy. 

[Timmy Supercell]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very nice. We are at 16.1” now, a little less than half of average. But February and March are our biggest snow months so we are in decent shape. If we squeeze out 3/4” we can pass the vaunted winter of 2012-13. 

Dec 2012 was a solid month for snow, then a cold January but was also a pretty boring month, very little snow to go around in late winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NWS forecast for my place is 30/21, 35/18, 38/24. Not bad. 

[TT-SEA]

Even as the cold air is arriving now... the GFS and ECMWF and still not in agreement.   The ECMWF shows the 850mb temp over SEA bottoming out at -10C tomorrow morning while the new 12ZGFS shows about -6C.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Frost!

06Z GFS still calling for snow IMBY…

… though the operational is a snowy outlier, so caution on those amounts.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wind is rippin this morning. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wind is rippin this morning. 

Are you in Oklahoma?  Isn't it always ripping out there?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Are you in Oklahoma?  Isn't it always ripping out there?

Yes and yes.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12Z GFS cuts back on the snow amounts. Not a surprise, given how the 06Z operational was an outlier.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

12Z GFS cuts back on the snow amounts. Not a surprise, given how the 06Z operational was an outlier.

I’m in the grey! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I’m in the grey! 

There does seem to be a definite southern trend in the snow coverage in overnight runs.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Flurries for PDX tonight?