PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[snow_wizard]

A chilly and foggy morning out there.  Currently 38 here.

Prince George is at 7 so there is some cold air to work with.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a terrible GFS run, long range is Kold again. 

[snow_wizard]

The models are becoming increasingly bullish on the MJO staying quite robust and entering the Maritime Continent region a bit later on.  Good chance we are going to get another shot at some cold.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not a terrible GFS run, long range is Kold again. 

I think a legit cold Feb is on the table.  Really weird how both Jan and Feb are in such a rut right now.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The models are becoming increasingly bullish on the MJO staying quite robust and entering the Maritime Continent region a bit later on.  Good chance we are going to get another shot at some cold.

LOL, it will end up being yet another President’s Day Special. Just wait and see.

Optimal sun angles are just so passé.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not a terrible GFS run, long range is Kold again. 

Perhaps a 2021 Valentines Day weekend redux! 

[snow_wizard]

Whatever your opinion on the matter, an SSW is happening right now.  Not sure about all of the talk of the details being wrong, but it's there.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Perhaps a 2021 Valentines Day weekend redux! 

Feb has been the bomb lately.  Just so many good examples beginning in 2011.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jim is so right. Big league potential mid month. 

[SnowWillarrive]

40 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Flurries for PDX tonight?

Castle rock big winner. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Jim is so right. Big league potential mid month. 

Even in the past mid Feb has had some of the best February events on record.  It's kind of the end of the period that can deliver an absolute top tier event.

[TT-SEA]

Are we jinxing February before it even starts?  

[snow_wizard]

Not sure why anyone would doubt the MJO connection to this.  Right when the MJO exploded in region 3 is when the models really started to go nuts over this blocking regime.  The block hasn't changed much from original expectation.  The details are what deballed this.  I would take my chances with this basic 500mb pattern any day.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Are we jinxing February before it even starts?  

I'm still not totally sold on there being a big cold wave, but the chances are very high the month will end up a solid minus.

[westcoastexpat]

11 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

This kind of says the reports of the death of La Nina are a bit premature.

The transition from Nina to Nino typically starts at Nino 1+2 and transitions westward with 3.4 being last to warm.

 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm still not totally sold on there being a big cold wave, but the chances are very high the month will end up a solid minus.

Lots can change.    But a colder than normal February can still be completely forgettable considering the average high in the 50s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Are we jinxing February before it even starts?  

Probably. I’m feeling snow at our elevations though. 

[westcoastexpat]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lots can change.    But a colder than normal February can still be completely forgettable considering the average high in the 50s.

Agreed, I don't care about a negative anomaly for a 28 day period. I care about an actual winter event with snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful day in Tulsa. Windy, by a Tim-tastic 58. Hate to admit it, but I love days like this in January. Temps won’t get out of the 30s though tomorrow. It’s interesting to compare Tulsa to when I first moved here in 2006, and then compare Portland to what it was like back then. 🫠

Edited January 28 by SilverFallsAndrew

[RentonHill]

27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Whatever your opinion on the matter, an SSW is happening right now.  Not sure about all of the talk of the details being wrong, but it's there.

Did you just skip over the entire discussion between @AbbyJrand @Phil yesterday?

[BLI snowman]

26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lots can change.    But a colder than normal February can still be completely forgettable considering the average high in the 50s.

Feeling like the pattern stays fairly progressive from here. Maybe a deep transient trough or two but with any cold offshore flow probably relegated to the most northern areas if at all.

[Phishy Wx]

A surprise 2" late overnight/early this morning (I went to bed at 1:30am was no snow, woke up at 9am to 2"). sunny now and the winds are picking up.  Some blowing and drifting would love to see a couple more negative temps before we put a fork in this winter.

29  WC 20

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Feeling like the pattern stays fairly progressive from here. Maybe a deep transient trough or two but with any cold offshore flow probably relegated to the most northern areas if at all.

Good call. 

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

And winter weather advisory issued starting around 4 PM.

that's what we just had

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Feeling like the pattern stays fairly progressive from here. Maybe a deep transient trough or two but with any cold offshore flow probably relegated to the most northern areas if at all.

That is my sense as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

That is my sense as well.

You and I are gonna do well as the month progresses. 

[Phishy Wx]

wonder if we get a late season finale like 2019 (late feb/early march)

we had a decent storm followed by ground blizzards around March 1st that year

 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You and I are gonna do well as the month progresses. 

I am not feeling it for my area yet... but your area being farther south and at a higher elevation is likely to do better.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is less favorable for the northern areas with the mid-week system.    

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You and I are gonna do well as the month progresses. 

I'm expecting to see some as well. I normally get snow with forecasted 1000ft snow levels and I'm thinking there's going to be a couple cold troughs that deliver. 

[SnowWillarrive]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is less favorable for the northern areas with the mid-week system.    

Poor Ludicrous 

[ShawniganLake]

Just checking the Fraser Canyon for any low level cold. Lytton has had a strong North wind for 5 hours but temp is still 37F. Dew points are starting to drop though. 

[LowerGarfield]

Sitting at 32F. Trying to drink my coffee before my son asks us to go to the park

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm expecting to see some as well. I normally get snow with forecasted 1000ft snow levels and I'm thinking there's going to be a couple cold troughs that deliver. 

Your area might do better than mine depending on how the upcoming pattern shakes out.   Seeing signs of troughs going through CA which is definitely better for your area.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Chilly gfs run, I haven't looked past 180 hrs in a minute but there's a couple chances for some low snow levels.

[umadbro]

One thing we have in our favor for later this evening is temps are running below forecast right now and the low clouds and fog don’t seem to be in a hurry to go anywhere. That said, I ain’t holding my breath.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Your area might do better than mine depending on how the upcoming pattern shakes out.   Seeing signs of troughs going through CA which is definitely better for your area.  

A trough with the 528 line south of me usually is cold enough over here for borderline snow.  North wind suddenly picked up here as we speak, 20 -25mph.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A trough with the 528 line south of me usually is cold enough over here for borderline snow.  North wind suddenly picked up here as we speak, 20 -25mph.

Dry air is moving in... Bellingham is finally clearing out now.

[MossMan]

It’s coming!! Blue skies are coming!! 

[LowerGarfield]

I'm not complaining at all, but I'm wondering if I should bring my rain gauge back out if I'm not going to have snow. I don't like using it in the winter due to freezes and afraid of warping. That said looks like the next few days will be subfreezing.

 

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming!! Blue skies are coming!! 

Here is Bellingham looking south towards your area. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is Bellingham looking south towards your area. 

This was my house when I left an hour ago…We got socked in but that should be changing rapidly! 

[TT-SEA]

12z ECMWF looks decent at the end... but there is not much cold air to work with at that time and its a progressive pattern.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12z ECMWF looks decent at the end... but there is not much cold air to work with at that time and its a progressive pattern.  

Yeah I’ve seen that showing up in some of the operational runs. It’s just a fairly cool trough, but maybe something that could cause some low snow levels in specific cases like we saw last week. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Terreboner2 said:

Plenty of time for that cutoff low to not be there.

Not really the issue... its a progressive patten either way.  

[ShawniganLake]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Dry air is moving in... Bellingham is finally clearing out now.

Yep. Agassiz is 45F but the dp is down to 24F. 

[umadbro]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12z ECMWF looks decent at the end... but there is not much cold air to work with at that time and its a progressive pattern.  

So in reality, it doesn’t look decent at all.

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

This was my house when I left an hour ago…We got socked in but that should be changing rapidly! 

Merry Christmas!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, umadbro said:

So in reality, it doesn’t look decent at all.

Maybe it could be... but that one frame looks better than it does if you run the loop or look at 850mb temps.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Terreboner2 said:

Hey Tim.  What's your thoughts for tomorrow's games?  I'm hoping it's Eagles/Bengals personally.

I agree with your predictions.