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PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


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A chilly and foggy morning out there.  Currently 38 here.

Prince George is at 7 so there is some cold air to work with.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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  • Longtimer

Not a terrible GFS run, long range is Kold again. 

  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The models are becoming increasingly bullish on the MJO staying quite robust and entering the Maritime Continent region a bit later on.  Good chance we are going to get another shot at some cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not a terrible GFS run, long range is Kold again. 

I think a legit cold Feb is on the table.  Really weird how both Jan and Feb are in such a rut right now.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The models are becoming increasingly bullish on the MJO staying quite robust and entering the Maritime Continent region a bit later on.  Good chance we are going to get another shot at some cold.

LOL, it will end up being yet another President’s Day Special. Just wait and see.

Optimal sun angles are just so passé.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not a terrible GFS run, long range is Kold again. 

Perhaps a 2021 Valentines Day weekend redux! 

C5B452C0-4590-4A62-806A-EB436B5F6374.jpeg

6BA5C717-C1D7-42A8-970F-2A7C20AD0563.jpeg

7B0BD527-6255-4426-A2F5-DFAB47198CAD.jpeg

1A120C7F-FB48-410A-9102-532619FD9BE3.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Whatever your opinion on the matter, an SSW is happening right now.  Not sure about all of the talk of the details being wrong, but it's there.

10mb9065.png

  • Facepalm 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Perhaps a 2021 Valentines Day weekend redux! 

C5B452C0-4590-4A62-806A-EB436B5F6374.jpeg

6BA5C717-C1D7-42A8-970F-2A7C20AD0563.jpeg

7B0BD527-6255-4426-A2F5-DFAB47198CAD.jpeg

1A120C7F-FB48-410A-9102-532619FD9BE3.jpeg

Feb has been the bomb lately.  Just so many good examples beginning in 2011.

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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  • Longtimer

Jim is so right. Big league potential mid month. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Jim is so right. Big league potential mid month. 

Even in the past mid Feb has had some of the best February events on record.  It's kind of the end of the period that can deliver an absolute top tier event.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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Not sure why anyone would doubt the MJO connection to this.  Right when the MJO exploded in region 3 is when the models really started to go nuts over this blocking regime.  The block hasn't changed much from original expectation.  The details are what deballed this.  I would take my chances with this basic 500mb pattern any day.

  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Are we jinxing February before it even starts?  😀

I'm still not totally sold on there being a big cold wave, but the chances are very high the month will end up a solid minus.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 9.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 72

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 22

 

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  • Staff
Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm still not totally sold on there being a big cold wave, but the chances are very high the month will end up a solid minus.

Lots can change.    But a colder than normal February can still be completely forgettable considering the average high in the 50s.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Are we jinxing February before it even starts?  😀

Probably. I’m feeling snow at our elevations though. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lots can change.    But a colder than normal February can still be completely forgettable considering the average high in the 50s.

Agreed, I don't care about a negative anomaly for a 28 day period. I care about an actual winter event with snow.

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  • Longtimer

Beautiful day in Tulsa. Windy, by a Tim-tastic 58. Hate to admit it, but I love days like this in January. Temps won’t get out of the 30s though tomorrow. It’s interesting to compare Tulsa to when I first moved here in 2006, and then compare Portland to what it was like back then. 😢🫠

3C1C8FC3-C346-4894-890F-1451B366D215.jpeg

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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  • Longtimer
26 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lots can change.    But a colder than normal February can still be completely forgettable considering the average high in the 50s.

Feeling like the pattern stays fairly progressive from here. Maybe a deep transient trough or two but with any cold offshore flow probably relegated to the most northern areas if at all.

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A surprise 2" late overnight/early this morning (I went to bed at 1:30am was no snow, woke up at 9am to 2"). sunny now and the winds are picking up.  Some blowing and drifting would love to see a couple more negative temps before we put a fork in this winter.

29  WC 20

 

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  • Longtimer
8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Feeling like the pattern stays fairly progressive from here. Maybe a deep transient trough or two but with any cold offshore flow probably relegated to the most northern areas if at all.

Good call. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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  • Staff
11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Feeling like the pattern stays fairly progressive from here. Maybe a deep transient trough or two but with any cold offshore flow probably relegated to the most northern areas if at all.

That is my sense as well.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

That is my sense as well.

You and I are gonna do well as the month progresses. 

  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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  • Staff
3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You and I are gonna do well as the month progresses. 

I am not feeling it for my area yet... but your area being farther south and at a higher elevation is likely to do better.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Staff

12Z ECMWF is less favorable for the northern areas with the mid-week system.    

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-5306800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You and I are gonna do well as the month progresses. 

I'm expecting to see some as well. I normally get snow with forecasted 1000ft snow levels and I'm thinking there's going to be a couple cold troughs that deliver. 

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Sitting at 32F. Trying to drink my coffee before my son asks us to go to the park

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 13.9 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 2.20 inches (12/19/22 & 12/20/22)

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) .10 on 3/08/23

Days with trace or more snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5), 12/14/22 (1.6), 12/18/22 (T), 12/19/22 (2.10), 12/20/22 (.10), 12/23/22 (2.0), 01/03/2023 (T), 1/22/23 (T), 2/21/23 (.10), 2/22/23 (.80), 2/23/23 (.20), 2/24/2023 (.50), 2/28/23 (.90), 3/5/2023 (2.0), 3/8/2023 (.10)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 0F (12/21/2022)

Last sub freezing high:  2/23/23

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location  (I've also had a White Christmas in 2017 when I lived in Stanwood and a White Christmas at a hotel in Moscow, ID in 2020). 

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  • Staff
8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm expecting to see some as well. I normally get snow with forecasted 1000ft snow levels and I'm thinking there's going to be a couple cold troughs that deliver. 

Your area might do better than mine depending on how the upcoming pattern shakes out.   Seeing signs of troughs going through CA which is definitely better for your area.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Your area might do better than mine depending on how the upcoming pattern shakes out.   Seeing signs of troughs going through CA which is definitely better for your area.  

A trough with the 528 line south of me usually is cold enough over here for borderline snow.  North wind suddenly picked up here as we speak, 20 -25mph.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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  • Staff
3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A trough with the 528 line south of me usually is cold enough over here for borderline snow.  North wind suddenly picked up here as we speak, 20 -25mph.

Dry air is moving in... Bellingham is finally clearing out now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm not complaining at all, but I'm wondering if I should bring my rain gauge back out if I'm not going to have snow. I don't like using it in the winter due to freezes and afraid of warping. That said looks like the next few days will be subfreezing.

 

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 13.9 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 2.20 inches (12/19/22 & 12/20/22)

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) .10 on 3/08/23

Days with trace or more snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5), 12/14/22 (1.6), 12/18/22 (T), 12/19/22 (2.10), 12/20/22 (.10), 12/23/22 (2.0), 01/03/2023 (T), 1/22/23 (T), 2/21/23 (.10), 2/22/23 (.80), 2/23/23 (.20), 2/24/2023 (.50), 2/28/23 (.90), 3/5/2023 (2.0), 3/8/2023 (.10)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 0F (12/21/2022)

Last sub freezing high:  2/23/23

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location  (I've also had a White Christmas in 2017 when I lived in Stanwood and a White Christmas at a hotel in Moscow, ID in 2020). 

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  • Staff
13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s coming!! Blue skies are coming!! 

65C08603-2AC9-4F6E-AB36-80071C7EAAD0.jpeg

Here is Bellingham looking south towards your area. 

Screenshot_20230128-110129_Chrome.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is Bellingham looking south towards your area. 

Screenshot_20230128-110129_Chrome.jpg

This was my house when I left an hour ago…We got socked in but that should be changing rapidly! 

AF7A6789-B793-4F9D-8D5A-E997F6ED7094.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Staff

12z ECMWF looks decent at the end... but there is not much cold air to work with at that time and its a progressive pattern.  

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5771200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12z ECMWF looks decent at the end... but there is not much cold air to work with at that time and its a progressive pattern.  

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5771200.png

Yeah I’ve seen that showing up in some of the operational runs. It’s just a fairly cool trough, but maybe something that could cause some low snow levels in specific cases like we saw last week. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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  • Staff
1 minute ago, Terreboner2 said:

Plenty of time for that cutoff low to not be there.

Not really the issue... its a progressive patten either way.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Staff
3 minutes ago, umadbro said:

So in reality, it doesn’t look decent at all.

Maybe it could be... but that one frame looks better than it does if you run the loop or look at 850mb temps.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Staff
Just now, Terreboner2 said:

Hey Tim.  What's your thoughts for tomorrow's games?  I'm hoping it's Eagles/Bengals personally.

I agree with your predictions.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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