PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[umadbro]

3 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

Hey Tim.  What's your thoughts for tomorrow's games?  I'm hoping it's Eagles/Bengals personally.

SF defense is just so good. Hurts is going to have to run a lot for them to win IMO. But I still think the Eagles come out on top.

[joelgombiner]

Current location of the Arctic front. 

 

[TacomaWx]

43 here after a low of 40. Shouldn’t be more than very slightly interesting the next couple days…but that’s about it. Some sub 40 highs atleast. No snow and not really all that cold. Hopefully mid February-early March can actually deliver something but right now I’m not thinking so. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really hoping we avoid the chiefs or eagles in the big game. 

[TacomaWx]

(Sorry rob) but the only team I hope loses on Sunday is the chiefs. I’m really rooting for the bengals to win it all. I wouldn’t mind seeing SF or Philly win though. Kansas City is basically the new patriots dynasty. I liked them a lot when they won the 2019 season but they’re just always good and I like to see diffrent teams win. They already won their Super Bowl a couple years ago. Let someone else win one! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wife insisted we drive by Arrowhead on Wednesday. 

[LowerGarfield]

Down to 31. Winds are picking up here but the Columbia Basin to my west looks to get the highest wind speeds today. Son decided he'd rather play Plants vs Zombies. We're going to the Palouse tomorrow so it will be interesting to see PUW's high tomorrow.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Terreboner2 said:

Are we all in agreement that Winter 2023/24 is going to be a suckfest of epic proportions?

Either 23/24 or 24/25 will be.

[joelgombiner]

10 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

Are we all in agreement that Winter 2023/24 is going to be a suckfest of epic proportions?

Seems inevitable that we get a big El Nino and the (globally) warmest year in recorded history soon. 

[joelgombiner]

Just now, Terreboner2 said:

I like it when there are no expectations.  Probably means a huge, regionwide event will happen.

Anything's possible. 

[umadbro]

16 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

I like it when there are no expectations.  Probably means a huge, regionwide event will happen.

With that logic we’d have region wide events every winter nearly all winter long.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Seems like the wind showed up early.  Wind advisory not supposed to start until 6, but its already cranking at my house and KBLI has already seen a 40 mph gust.  NWS has "gusts as high as 28mph" for this afternoon, and "gusts has high as 29 mph" for tonight.

YWL-BLI is only at -11.2

[Phishy Wx]

Down to 27. WC 18

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Either 23/24 or 24/25 will be.

Probably so.  You can't write off next winter until we see if the Nina actually gives out or not.  Even if it does we might just go neutral.

[snow_wizard]

The eastern third of WA has gotten pretty cold.  This thing does have some teeth.

[WeatherGeek2022]

Winter still remains cancelled I see.

[Blizzard777]

1:28 pm 1/28/2023

Observation: Day 16 back in the PNW a green substance is growing on the exterior of my body.  I’m not sure but it could be some sort of moss.  Heading up north now to see a specialist.  Randy (aka MossMan)  should be able to identify how much time I have left.  
 
Gloomy and 43* 

[Deweydog]

Hood River now under the gun!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

47F and cloudy. Been enjoying college basketball.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18z GFS showing some snowfall for Kelso, Corvallis and Eugene with the Arctic front.

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Nice day at the waterfront 

[T-Town]

Looks like winter in the Olympics. I can see the clearing coming my way. 45 here with the northerly breeze picking up. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, joelgombiner said:

Seems inevitable that we get a big El Nino and the (globally) warmest year in recorded history soon. 

Not region centric, but I’m looking forward to the +ENSO swing. +ENSO following heavy multiyear niñas tend to deliver excellent winters out here **when the IPWP is extending** (which is indirectly paced by solar forcing on a state dependent lag).

1957/58 following 1954/55-56/57.

1976/77/78 following 1973/74-75/76

2002/03 following 1998/99-01/02

2014/15-15/16 following 2010/11-13/14

+ENSO winters outside this portion of the IPWP cycle are much less predictable here. There are great ones like 2009/10 and 1986/87, but also epic fails like 1991/92, 2019/20, 1997/98, etc.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18Z Goofus says “Sorry, @MossMan.”

[NWbyNW]

We all know how Waldo likes to hide, but in today's edition, we try to find Mount Baker?  Can you see it?  

Have a superb Saturday all!  Very beautiful partly cloudy day, frigid cool air coming from the north.  Very cold with wind chill, but the actual temp is pretty warm at 44F.  Lot's of

 

[Blizzard777]

21 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Looks like winter in the Olympics. I can see the clearing coming my way. 45 here with the northerly breeze picking up. 

Almost went to hike, Hurricane Ridge today probably would’ve been and adventure !!!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Getting breezy. Temp 43.5˚F, DP 33.3˚F.

Hope: Temp 41.9˚F, DP 12.0˚F.

Lytton: Temp 34.3˚F, DP 9.5˚F.

[Deweydog]

18z will have Andrew talking silverware again!

Edited January 28 by Deweydog

[Deweydog]

Nein degree drop at HR in an hour.

[snow_wizard]

5 hours ago, westcoastexpat said:

The transition from Nina to Nino typically starts at Nino 1+2 and transitions westward with 3.4 being last to warm.

 

I'm still not that convinced though.  Strong trade wind burst ongoing, Equatorial subsurface temps lower than this time last year, sky high SOI, tanked MEI, etc, etc.

[T-Town]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Nein degree drop at HR in an hour.

Bellingham has plummeted from 47 to 45 in the last hour. 
 

#arcticblast

[snow_wizard]

Fairly impressively Goldendale has already dropped to 32 during the afternoon.  Decent shot of cold air.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Bellingham has plummeted from 47 to 45 in the last hour. 
 

#arcticblast

In actuality falling during the day isn't too bad.  They have also exchanged a lot of coldness for drying of the air mass.

[snow_wizard]

GFS ends with blocking again.  Going to be interesting to watch the 10th to 15th period going forward.

[TacomaWx]

#therealdeal

[TacomaWx]

Looks like we will max out at 44. Breezy north winds but the DP is 38. Temps overall look pretty weaksauce it’d be impressive if we saw these types of temps with a blast in like early March. High temps in the upper 30s in late January is weak. 

[WeatherGeek2022]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

#therealdeal

#therealdeal number 3409257463

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Terreboner2 said:

We really should have a separate Oregon and Washington monthly thread I'm thinking.  I think I'm going to do an OregonTalk thread for February.

#TooWesternWashingtonCentric

Good lord quit being such a weenie  

[T-Town]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

In actuality falling during the day isn't too bad.  They have also exchanged a lot of coldness for drying of the air mass.

I love days like this with the north wind and clearing skies. Especially compared to the gloom we’ve had for the last few days. But it’s a little bit of a letdown compared to what seemed possible a week or so ago. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful sunset in NE Oklahoma 

[Deweydog]

East winds have reached KTTD. Down to 46 from 47.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Kind of an interesting radar signature this afternoon. A front of heavy showers developing in the metro, moving in from the NE.

Wind suddenly picked up from the east here and have some moderate rain with ice pellets mixing in currently. Temp is down to 41 after a high of 45. I imagine this must be the arctic front.

[MossMan]

What to do when an arctic blast is descending upon you…Wash the vehicles! First time since October. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Kind of an interesting radar signature this afternoon. A front of heavy showers developing in the metro, moving in from the NE.

Wind suddenly picked up from the east here and have some moderate rain with ice pellets mixing in currently. Temp is down to 41 after a high of 45. I imagine this must be the arctic front.

Score!

[T-Town]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

What to do when an arctic blast is descending upon you…Wash the vehicles! First time since October. 

I thought about it but that’s as far as I got. Maybe tomorrow before football gets started. 

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Kind of an interesting radar signature this afternoon. A front of heavy showers developing in the metro, moving in from the NE.

Wind suddenly picked up from the east here and have some moderate rain with ice pellets mixing in currently. Temp is down to 41 after a high of 45. I imagine this must be the arctic front.

Teleconnections, Jess.

Teleconnections.

[Deweydog]

Front looked like a snow squall moving in. Then it started raining.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

“Will trend north.”

[Cascadia_Wx]

A shame this one didn’t have a little more in the way of teeth to it. Would have been fun to get a notable winter weather event in late January for once. At least there could be some cold lows in spots the next few days.

[snow_wizard]

Many places sitting at their low temps for the day so far just before sunset.  It's still going to get cold.